政法委书记陈文清退居二线,中央书记处改组拉开帷幕。习近平下台开始倒计时。习近平团队副国级下课第一人

大家好,我昨天刚说了,政治局常委,官宣,给中央书记处开出了七宗大罪,七宗罪。1是工作不主动,2是工作不认真,3是工作不有效,4是政治能力不足,5是重点工作未能落实,6是自身建设存在严重问题,7是工作质量未达标。就要命的就是这第6条。自身建设存在严重问题。官方的说法是从严加强自身建设。官方说法是《从严加强自身建设》。这句话已经说的很重了,因为说的是从严。熟悉党文化应该知道。加强自身建设的意思,就是要换人。从严加强自身建设的一重,就是中央书记处要换掉一半以上的人。就是叫做从严。

结果话音未落,今天中央政治局委员,中央书记处书记,中央政法委书记陈文清就退休了。我真的没有内幕,这都是巧合。因为这个党八股,这个党文化的语言,话说的挺重的。《从严加强自身建设》。这也就是搁中央书记处这些人身上,他们扛着住。同样的话,说给省委书记的话。他们就直接进秦城了,直接抓了。2025年1月11日,中国法学会第九次全国会员代表大会在京闭幕。中共中央政治局委员、中央政法委书记陈文清当选中国法学会会长。

这明显就是习近平马仔政法委书记陈文清退居二线的节奏。陈文清不会马上退,应该就是四中全会退。现在退休之后的职位都安排好了。这个陈文清待遇还不错,暂时不用进秦城。但是那也要退啊。我给大家捋一下都谁当过中国法学会的会长,大家就知道,政法委书记陈文清肯定是退休的节奏。不会错的。

陈文清是中国法学会的第九任会长。前4任会长的级别比较低,不知道是什么人。从第五任会长任建新开始。这个级别一下去就上去了。第四任会长还是正部级,第五任会长任建新,一下子就是副国级了。任建新是什么派系的,我不太清楚,有可能是习近平派系。因为任建新是董必武的秘书。董必武不知道是不是周恩来的马仔。

任建新是1997年1月接任的法学会会长,然后在1997年9月的十五大就是退休了。第二年两年交班。这是第一位由现任政法委书记担任过中国法学会会长的先例。但是也很明显是因为任建新要退休了,才担任中国法学会的会长。后面韩杼滨,王乐泉,王晨都不是政法委书记。韩杼滨的派系我也不太清楚,曾经担任铁道部的部长。最高检的检察长。韩杼滨从最高检察长,退休了大半年,才给安排了一个中国法学会的会长的待遇。

王乐泉,我还是不知道他的派系。不知道是不是江泽民的人,还是陈云的人。王乐泉因为新疆七五事件下台。但是王乐泉和政法委本来是没什么关系的。从新疆书记下台之后,就去了政法委担任了一年的政法委副书记。估计就是为了安排在中国法学会,所以,会安排去政法委。王晨是习近平派系的。王晨也是退居二线,在人大才安排上中国法学会的职务。

我们通过简单看一下历任的中国法学会会长,就可以得出结论。政法委书记陈文清担任中国法学会会长。这是退休的信号。今年之内陈文清应该就退休了。政治局常委刚刚给中央书记定了7宗大罪,话音未落,改组就开始了。

川普上任保台海四年无战争?北京或将表面强硬、暗中“韬光养晦”

美国当选总统唐纳德·川普即将就任,新政府如何处理复杂且敏感的美中关系及台海议题令人关注。有中国学者说,未来四年美中领导人都会专注于处理内部改革与经济问题,习近平没有计划“制定统一台湾时间表”,不过这种说法被一些人解读为,未来四年北京可能采取另一种“韬光养晦”的做法,以便应对行事风格难以预测的川普。

川普胜选后即透露,他已邀请中国领导人习近平参加他的就职仪式。这个星期他又在一个保守派谈话节目中说,他和习近平一直都通过各自代表在进行对话,他相信两人应该能够“相处的很好”。中国外交部对此作出积极回应称,中国“重视”川普关于双方的相关表态,但并未证实习近平通过代表与川普对话。

尽管川普在上任前似乎与北京当局都在营造友善气氛,但他提名的国家安全团队中却有相当多的对中国立场强硬的人选。在未来四年,双方在台海议题上的交锋将如何展开,这些都是令人关注和好奇的问题。

中国清华大学国际关系研究学院名誉院长阎学通上个月在美国《外交事务》期刊发表了一篇题为《为何中国不怕川普》的文章。他在文章中指出,未来四年,北京的重点将放在重振国内经济上,“不会制定统一台湾的具体时间表”。他同时认为,川普也将把重心放在国内改革和经济发展上,不太可能冒着爆发大国战争的风险在台湾问题上采取激进行动。

有评论认为川普上任后会立刻与北京打交道,希望很快“搞定”与中国的谈判。

“过去几个月的铺陈,显示川普相信自己可以搞定对中国的谈判,而且从谈判桌上取得上风,”中国目前面临内部许多挑战,川普与中国交手可能“获益”的机会也随之变大,“相对而言,北京对美谈判重点恐怕就是要求美国‘少支持’台湾。”

简而言之,在美中两国的交锋中美国可能会占上风,“但北京会在台湾问题上强调自己成功让美国不支持台独”,因此各自都有可以宣传胜利之处。

关于阎学通有关习近平会专注于重振国内经济,“不会制定统一台湾的时间表”说法,虽然这不一定是“传达中央的指令”,但也“相去不远”。中国学者现在根本就不敢随便发声,动不动就抓起来,因此阎学通的言论肯定是官方授意的。

清华大学的阎学通在《外交事务》期刊的文章中说,无论川普的言论多么尖锐,他都会避免公开与中国发生冲突,即便在敏感的台湾议题上,因为他想要成为历史上美国最伟大的总统之一,为达到那个目的,他会专注于国内改革与建立一个更强大的经济,“他不会想要卷入台湾事务,冒着发生大国战争的风险——毕竟他为自己在第一任期内没有发动任何战争感到非常自豪。”

阎学通还说:“台湾独立的议题一直都是,也将继续是北京与华盛顿摩擦的来源,但中国和美国不太可能为此发生战争。未来四年,北京的注意力主要将集中于重振中国放缓的经济。中国并不打算为与台湾的统一制定一个时间表,因为它最关注的是它自己的经济增长。”

他说,尽管川普第一任时已发动与中国的贸易战颠覆了数十年来的美国政策,他的言论及内阁人事布局也意味着他会加倍对中国的强硬作为,但中国领导人对川普并不感到畏惧,因为他们从他的第一任学到了许多经验。

“他对经济保护主义的倾向将导致更多的争端和紧张局势加剧,但北京相信自己能够应对这样的对抗。此外,川普对美国盟友的承诺不够坚定,这将促使其他国家采取两面下注的策略,与北京建立联系以抵消华盛顿的不确定性,”阎学通说。

外界一般认为中国学者的说法经常反映当局的政策立场,阎学通在美国新总统上任前在美国重要外交期刊上发表文章,是否表示中国未来四年将把注意力集中在重振经济上,而“不会制定统一台湾的时间表”?

回复一下这名网友:能问一下刘延东的背景吗?我没有研究过,我给你猜一下,习近平的人。我不知道猜的对不对。首先说我的范围,就是副部级以上,主要是现任的。刘延东虽然是退休的,但是级别比较高,政治局委员。怎么说也应该研究一下。虽然是往届的,但是比较级别比较高。我不太清楚刘延东的派系,原因就是可能是今天的政坛上没有太多的刘延东的徒子徒孙。没有串到她的头上,所以不太清楚。

2013年10月23日下午,清华大学经济管理学院首任院长、学院顾问委员会名誉主席朱镕基及夫人劳安,中共中央政治局常委、中央纪委书记、清华经管学院顾问委员会名誉委员王岐山,中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理刘延东,中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、学院顾问委员会委员马凯在钓鱼台国宾馆亲切会见了参加清华大学经济管理学院顾问委员会2013年会议的顾问委员。

大家看,朱镕基,王岐山,刘延东,马凯。都是习近平派系的。胡锦涛虽然是清华大学毕业的,但是胡锦涛在清华大学没有提拔几个人。就是胡锦涛在清华大学的时候认识的一两个人。胡锦涛离开清华大学后,没有在清华大学有什么政治势力。清华大学大部分都是陈云派系的人。清华大学就是陈云派系的大本营,最早其实是周恩来在清华大学有很多人,是从周恩来就开始提拔的。

比如最近我说的,提拔广西桂林市委书记周家斌的叶如棠就是周恩来提拔的。叶如棠后来是建设部长。和贾庆林女婿李伯潭,和彭丽媛,和习远平一起做生意。周恩来提拔的清华大学校长蒋南翔。蒋南翔提拔的叶如棠。蒋南翔应该就是白区党,就是周恩来领导的。在国统区煽动学生反饥饿。人家问这些傻缺学生,你们真的饥饿吗?好的,谢谢大家。

英文翻译

Chen Wenqing, secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission, has retired to the second line, and the reorganization of the Central Secretariat has begun. The countdown to Xi Jinping’s resignation has begun. The first vice-state-level official in Xi Jinping’s team has been dismissed

Hello everyone, I just said yesterday that the Politburo Standing Committee officially announced that the Central Secretariat had seven major sins. Seven sins. 1. Not taking the initiative in work, 2. Not working seriously, 3. Not working effectively, 4. Insufficient political ability, 5. Failure to implement key tasks, 6. Serious problems in self-construction, and 7. Work quality not meeting standards. The fatal one is the 6th one. There are serious problems in self-construction. The official statement is to strictly strengthen self-construction. The official statement is “Strictly Strengthen Self-Construction”. This sentence is already very heavy, because it is about strictness. Those who are familiar with party culture should know. Strengthening self-construction means changing people. One of the aspects of strictly strengthening self-construction is that the Central Secretariat must replace more than half of the people. It is called strictness.

As a result, before the voice fell, Chen Wenqing, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, Secretary of the Central Secretariat, and Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, retired today. I really don’t have any inside information, it’s all coincidence. Because the language of this party jargon, this party culture, is quite heavy. “Strictly strengthen self-construction”. This is also the case for those people in the Central Secretariat, they can bear it. The same words, if said to the provincial party secretary. They will go directly to Qincheng and be arrested directly. On January 11, 2025, the 9th National Congress of the Chinese Law Society closed in Beijing. Chen Wenqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, was elected President of the Chinese Law Society.

This is obviously the rhythm of Xi Jinping’s henchman, Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission, Chen Wenqing, retiring to the second line. Chen Wenqing will not retire immediately, it should be retired at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee. Now the position after retirement has been arranged. This Chen Wenqing’s treatment is not bad, and he doesn’t have to go to Qincheng for the time being. But he has to retire. Let me tell you who has been the president of the Chinese Law Society, and you will know that Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission Chen Wenqing is definitely retiring. It can’t be wrong.

Chen Wenqing is the ninth president of the Chinese Law Society. The level of the first four presidents was relatively low, and I don’t know who they were. Starting from the fifth president Ren Jianxin. This level went up immediately. The fourth president was still at the ministerial level, and the fifth president Ren Jianxin was at the vice-state level. I don’t know what faction Ren Jianxin belongs to, but it may be Xi Jinping’s faction. Because Ren Jianxin was Dong Biwu’s secretary. I don’t know if Dong Biwu was Zhou Enlai’s henchman.

Ren Jianxin took over as president of the Law Society in January 1997, and then retired at the 15th National Congress in September 1997. The next year was a two-year handover. This is the first precedent of the current Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission serving as the President of the China Law Society. But it is also obvious that Ren Jianxin became the President of the China Law Society because he was about to retire. Later Han Zhubin, Wang Lequan, and Wang Chen were not the Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission. I don’t know Han Zhubin’s faction either. He once served as the Minister of the Ministry of Railways. He was the Chief Prosecutor of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate. Han Zhubin retired from the Supreme People’s Procuratorate for more than half a year before he was arranged to be the President of the China Law Society.

Wang Lequan, I still don’t know his faction. I don’t know if he is Jiang Zemin’s or Chen Yun’s. Wang Lequan stepped down because of the July 5th incident in Xinjiang. But Wang Lequan had nothing to do with the Political and Legal Committee. After the Xinjiang secretary stepped down, he went to the Political and Legal Committee and served as the deputy secretary of the Political and Legal Committee for a year. It is estimated that he was arranged to be in the China Law Society, so he was arranged to go to the Political and Legal Committee. Wang Chen is from the Xi Jinping faction. Wang Chen also retreated to the second line and was arranged to the position of the China Law Society in the National People’s Congress.

We can draw a conclusion by simply looking at the past presidents of the China Law Society. Chen Wenqing, secretary of the Political and Legal Committee, served as the president of the China Law Society. This is a signal of retirement. Chen Wenqing should retire within this year. The Politburo Standing Committee has just convicted the Central Secretary of seven major crimes, and the reorganization has begun before the words have fallen.

Trump took office to ensure that there will be no war in the Taiwan Strait for four years? Beijing may be tough on the surface but “hide its strength and bide its time” in secret

US President-elect Donald Trump is about to take office. How the new government will deal with the complex and sensitive US-China relations and the Taiwan Strait issue is of concern. Some Chinese scholars said that in the next four years, the leaders of the United States and China will focus on dealing with internal reforms and economic issues. Xi Jinping has no plan to “set a timetable for unifying Taiwan”, but this statement is interpreted by some people as Beijing may adopt another “hide its strength and bide its time” approach in the next four years to deal with Trump, whose style of behavior is unpredictable.

After Trump won the election, he revealed that he had invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration ceremony. This week, he said on a conservative talk show that he and Xi Jinping have been in dialogue through their respective representatives, and he believes that the two should be able to “get along well”. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded positively, saying that China “attaches importance” to Trump’s relevant statements on both sides, but did not confirm that Xi Jinping had spoken to Trump through representatives.

Although Trump seemed to be creating a friendly atmosphere with the Beijing authorities before taking office, there are quite a few candidates in his national security team who have a tough stance on China. How the confrontation between the two sides on the Taiwan Strait issue will unfold in the next four years is a matter of concern and curiosity.

Yan Xuetong, honorary dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University in China, published an article titled “Why China is not afraid of Trump” in the American journal Foreign Affairs last month. In his article, he pointed out that in the next four years, Beijing’s focus will be on revitalizing the domestic economy and “will not set a specific timetable for unifying Taiwan.” He also believes that Trump will also focus on domestic reform and economic development and is unlikely to take radical actions on the Taiwan issue at the risk of a great power war.

Some commentators believe that Trump will deal with Beijing immediately after taking office and hopes to “finish” the negotiations with China soon.

“The past few months have shown that Trump believes he can handle the negotiations with China and gain the upper hand at the negotiating table.” China is currently facing many internal challenges, and Trump’s chances of “benefiting” from the confrontation with China have also increased. “Relatively speaking, Beijing’s focus in the negotiations with the United States may be to ask the United States to ‘less support’ for Taiwan.”

In short, the United States may have the upper hand in the confrontation between the United States and China, “but Beijing will emphasize on the Taiwan issue that it has successfully made the United States not support Taiwan independence”, so each side has something to publicize the victory.

Regarding Yan Xuetong’s statement that Xi Jinping will focus on revitalizing the domestic economy and “will not set a timetable for unifying Taiwan”, although this is not necessarily “conveying the central government’s instructions”, it is also “not far away”. Chinese scholars now dare not speak out casually, and they are arrested at any time, so Yan Xuetong’s remarks must be authorized by the official.

Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University said in an article in the journal Foreign Affairs that no matter how sharp Trump’s remarks are, he will avoid open conflict with China, even on the sensitive issue of Taiwan, because he wants to be one of the greatest American presidents in history. To achieve that goal, he will focus on domestic reforms and building a stronger economy. “He will not want to get involved in Taiwan affairs and risk a great power war – after all, he is very proud of not starting any wars during his first term.” Yan Xuetong also said: “The issue of Taiwan independence has always been and will continue to be a source of friction between Beijing and Washington, but China and the United States are unlikely to go to war over it. In the next four years, Beijing’s attention will mainly focus on reviving China’s slowing economy. China does not intend to set a timetable for reunification with Taiwan because it is most concerned about its own economic growth.” He said that although Trump’s trade war with China during his first term overturned decades of US policy, his remarks and cabinet personnel arrangements also meant that he would double down on tough actions against China, but Chinese leaders are not afraid of Trump because they have learned a lot from his first term. “His inclination toward economic protectionism will lead to more disputes and heightened tensions, but Beijing believes it can handle such confrontations. In addition, Trump’s commitment to U.S. allies is not firm enough, which will prompt other countries to adopt a two-way bet strategy and establish ties with Beijing to offset Washington’s uncertainty,” Yan Xuetong said.

The outside world generally believes that the statements of Chinese scholars often reflect the policy stance of the authorities. Yan Xuetong published an article in an important U.S. diplomatic journal before the new U.S. president took office. Does it mean that China will focus on revitalizing the economy in the next four years and “will not set a timetable for unifying Taiwan”?

Reply to this netizen: Can I ask about Liu Yandong’s background? I haven’t studied it. I’ll guess for you that she is Xi Jinping’s person. I don’t know if I guessed it right. First of all, my scope is above the vice-ministerial level, mainly the current ones. Although Liu Yandong is retired, she is at a relatively high level, a member of the Politburo. Anyway, we should study it. Although she is from the past, she is at a relatively high level. I don’t know much about Liu Yandong’s faction, and the reason may be that there are not many disciples of Liu Yandong in today’s political arena. It didn’t get to her, so it’s not clear.

On the afternoon of October 23, 2013, Zhu Rongji, the first dean of Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management and honorary chairman of the School’s Advisory Committee, and his wife Lao An, Wang Qishan, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and honorary member of the Tsinghua School of Economics and Management Advisory Committee, Liu Yandong, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, and Ma Kai, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, and member of the School’s Advisory Committee, cordially met with the advisory members who attended the 2013 meeting of the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management Advisory Committee at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.

You see, Zhu Rongji, Wang Qishan, Liu Yandong, Ma Kai. They are all from the Xi Jinping faction. Although Hu Jintao graduated from Tsinghua University, Hu Jintao did not promote many people at Tsinghua University. There were only one or two people that Hu Jintao knew when he was at Tsinghua University. After Hu Jintao left Tsinghua University, he did not have any political power at Tsinghua University. Most of the people at Tsinghua University are from the Chen Yun faction. Tsinghua University is the base camp of Chen Yun’s faction. Zhou Enlai actually had many people in Tsinghua University at the beginning. Zhou Enlai started to promote them.

For example, I mentioned recently that Ye Rutang, who promoted Zhou Jiabin, the secretary of the Guilin Municipal Party Committee in Guangxi, was promoted by Zhou Enlai. Ye Rutang later became the Minister of Construction. He did business with Jia Qinglin’s son-in-law Li Botan, Peng Liyuan, and Xi Yuanping. Jiang Nanxiang, the president of Tsinghua University, was promoted by Zhou Enlai. Ye Rutang was promoted by Jiang Nanxiang. Jiang Nanxiang should be the White Area Party, led by Zhou Enlai. He incited students to fight against hunger in the Kuomintang-controlled areas. People asked these stupid students, are you really hungry? Okay, thank you everyone.

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