胡锦涛手握31省刀把子,随时对习近平下手。四中全会箭在弦上。刀架脖子上了,还怎么继续当总书记?政法委书记和副书记陈文清王小洪,武警司令王春宁为何束手就擒?不是竟无一人是男儿吗?


大家好,陈文清是政法委书记,王小洪是政法委副书记。陈文清被打发到二线担任中国法学会会长。

王小洪铁杆马仔亓延军被拿掉了九门提督这样的实权岗位。政法委员武警司令王春宁,干脆直接被抓走了。大家想想为什么陈文清和王小洪一个屁也不敢放,束手就擒。

其实我不想讲,原因很明显。政法委书记比较敏感。这帮孙子,天天监控我的节目。不少人动了歪脑子。把我这个当成当官指南了。本来就是他们在监控,近水楼台先得月。

他们已经动了,如果知道他们的上级是习近平的人,随时准备跳船,这样的歪脑筋啊。我说这个,变成给他们指路了。所以,有的我就不展开,不能便宜他们。我们先说先说,再看看31个省的刀把子,目前,胡锦涛掌握了多少个省。什么时候准备对习近平下手,最后摊牌。四中全会,就是箭在弦上,不得不发。就是陈桥兵变,黄袍加身,就是气氛已经烘托到这里了。不动手不行了。

彭博社引述知情人士报道说,中国官员正在评估一种潜在方案,如果TikTok未能挡住有争议的“不卖就禁”法案,该公司美国业务或可出售给知名企业家马斯克。TikTok现已表示,此一说法“纯属虚构”。另外,面对TikTok可能被美国当局禁用,美国许多用户正改用中国另一款社交平台「小红书」。

知情人士表示,北京官员强烈希望TikTok仍归母公司字节跳动持有,该公司也针对即将实施的“不卖就禁”法案向美国最高法院提出上诉。但在2025年1月10日的辩论中,法官们称他们可能会支持这项法案。首先,我对法官同意封禁TikTok表示欣慰。就是美国是一个三权分立的国家。美国总统的权力的确是特别大。但是,并不能只手遮天。所以,在总统的自由裁量权之外呢。还有法院这套系统呢。中国呢,字节跳动呢,就是在利用美国的司法系统。企图蒙混过关。

现在中国把美国的司法救济途径也走完了。其实,就是以拖待变。希望美国有什么变化,以便中国能够钻到漏洞。司法程序过程就比较长。现在,字节跳动,把美国的司法程序也走完了。法院也认为TikTok是美国重大的国家安全危险。也就是说,无论是美国的行政系统,总统这里,还是美国的司法系统。法院。达成了统一的认识。TikTok就是一个间谍软件,就是美国的国家安全威胁。那就别废话了,踏实遵守美国的法律,让他卖,字节跳动就应该赶紧卖了。

知情人士透露,与川普总统最亲密盟友之一的马斯克达成协议,对中国政府具有一定吸引力,预计中国政府在TikTok最终是否被出售方面拥有一定发言权。据悉,如果按照中国政府讨论的一种情况,马斯克的X(前推特)将接管TikTok美国业务,并将两家公司的业务合并。TikTok在美国有超过1.7亿用户,可以帮助X吸引广告商。马斯克还成立了一家独立的人工智能公司xAI,该公司可以从TikTok生成的大量数据中受益。
知情人士还说,中国官员尚未就如何推进此协议达成任何坚定共识,相关讨论仍处于初步阶段。目前尚不清楚字节跳动对中国政府的讨论了解多少,也不清楚TikTok和马斯克是否参与其中。同时也不清楚马斯克、TikTok和字节跳动是否就任何可能的交易条款进行过任何讨论。今天稍晚,TikTok一名发言人已向媒体表示,不能期待该企业就“纯属虚构”的事情置评。其实,这里也很明显,字节跳动根本就说不了算,都是中国政府说了算的。字节跳动当然不敢公开反驳中国政府。

说白了就是中国政府还希望能把这件事情当作筹码用一用。就是想买个空头人情。但是,特别抽象的是,面对TikTok可能被美国当局禁用,美国许多用户正改用中国另一款社交平台「小红书」。在美国最高法院就禁令作出裁决前,TikTok用户正逃离这个社交平台,促使其中国竞争对手「小红书」在美国的下载量激增。虽然目前不知道「小红书」的下载量是多少,但本周一,它在美国苹果商店的免费应用程序下载排行榜上名列榜首。

如果最高法院不在2025年1月19日之前阻挡强制出售令,届时在苹果或谷歌应用程序商店将不能再下载TikTok,但现有用户可在一段时间内继续使用该应用程序。我个人认为,这些抽象TikTok用户,这都是短期行为。包括那个没有任何言论自由的蓝天平台。没有人用啊。

首先说一下,我说的顺序,就是按照每个省的重要性来说,当然中国最重要的省就是上海了。按照历任省委书记进政治局常委得2分,政治局得1分,人大副委员长,政协副主席,国务委员,最高法院院长,最高检察院检察长,这些普通副国级0.5分。山西就是中国的政治洼地,没有任何一个人当过副国级。

其实很简单,陈文清是政法委书记,王小洪是政法委副书记。陈文清被打发到二线担任中国法学会会长。王小洪铁杆马仔亓延军被拿掉了九门提督这样的实权岗位。陈文清和王小洪为什么这么老实呢。就是说不单是习近平马上就是光杆司令了,陈文清和王小洪也要变成光杆司令了。这31省的政法委书记到底是哪个派系,是胡锦涛的人,还是习近平的人。我们不知道,难道政法委书记陈文清和政法委副书记王小洪都不知道吗?陈文清和王小洪肯定心里门清。这就是陈文清和王小洪不敢轻举妄动的原因。

下面的腿都被人抓走了,换掉了,退休了。还怎么反呢?光杆司令拿什么反啊。

我来回复这名网友啊。这名网友说,主播,我对你的分折非常赞赏,而且场场不缺席,但有一点疑问,就是四中全会,如果大部分中央委员都是习近平派糸的人,那要习近平四中下台恐怕就很难了,你能否分析一下目前中央委员的大部分是属于哪一派的,习近平派系或非习近平?一名网友是这样回复的,副部级提拔这么多个了,军权也被剥夺,被提拔的没有一个是包的人,被抓的没一个不是。所以政治局委员的能量有限。

首先这名网友的问题很好,但是你这问题太大了。第一中央委员有200个人,你想累死我啊。当然了,虽然这个工作量太巨大了,不太现实,但是呢,就是给你猜一遍,只能说是猜,估计也能多少看出一些端倪。但是肯定不太准确。 但是,如果把这200个中央委员都扒出来,那肯定就上帝视角了。那就不需要在分析任何事情了。就和我分析24个上将一样。好像我错了两个还是三个。根本就无所谓,不影响结论。24个上将一拔出来就是上帝视角。

如果200个中央委员,拔出来,哪怕错了50个,能对150个以上,那就是上帝视角了。第二个就说都是习近平的人,这个问题。这个应该不是问题,哪次换届都会有这样的问题。不然的话之前就不存在换届了。所谓的小事开大会,大事开小会,特别重要的事不开会。也就是说,中共核心的人事变动,说白了就是习近平是不是下台,他不是在三中全会或者四中全会决定的。而是小圈子决定的。三中全会,或者四中全会就是一个橡皮图章。

但是在共产主义历史,的确有通过中央全会翻盘的案例。但是背后肯定是有其他的条件的。

赫鲁晓夫的第一次下台危机,是在1957年6月。18日,苏共中央主席团(大致相当于中共中央政治局,苏共中央没有政治局常委这一层级)里的元老派发起了一场反对第一书记赫鲁晓夫的突然袭击,要求撤销赫鲁晓夫的一切领导职务。在三天的激烈争论中,主席团不少成员站到元老派一边,形成了多数。但赫鲁晓夫和支持赫鲁晓夫的主席团成员坚决反抗,力主主席团无权罢免第一书记,要求立即召开中央全会。元老派极力抵制召开全会。在这期间,在朱可夫元帅的鼎力支持下(虽然4个月后,朱可夫也被赫鲁晓夫搞下台),让军方背景的中央委员们闯入会议室以武力胁迫要求召开中央全会,并派遣军机一夜之间将散布各地的中央委员召集到莫斯科。他的对手们哀叹:“今天来的是将军,明天来的就是坦克了。”元老派被迫同意召开了中央全会(6月22日至29日历时8天,共举行12次全体会议),赫鲁晓夫转败为胜,打败了元老派,宣布他们是反党集团。

现在的问题就是说,为什么四中全会,中央委员肯定是习近平的人比较多,他们为什么不敢像支持赫鲁晓夫那样支持习近平呢?为什么我确信习近平一定在四中全会下台呢?

这就是今天我给大家讲的,陈文清和王小洪。我给大家打个比方,陈文清和王小洪本身就是中央委员。假设习近平在四中全会,让自己派系的中央委员,提出来让习近平继续连任。可不可行,不可行啊。首先陈文清和王小洪这个到刀把子都不会同意的。为什么陈文清和王小洪是习近平的铁杆马仔,还不敢拥护习近平继续连任呢?

我就不废话了,给大家上图。我们看近期发生什么事情啊,重庆市政法委书记陆克华被抓了,山东省委政法委书记空缺了10个月,这都是政治大省。

天津政法委书记衡晓帆,江苏省政法委书记李耀光,湖北省政法委书记王林虎,都是强卫的背景,强卫是邓小平打桥牌的牌友王大明提拔的,强卫曾经是北京市政法委书记。

安徽省政法委书记虞爱华和福建省政法委书记黄海昆被胡锦涛勒令退休。

过两天上来的人肯定是胡锦涛的人。

中国排名前15的政治大省,刀把子,政法委,基本被胡锦涛掌握了。

这就是政法委书记陈文清和政法委副书记王小洪,不敢轻举妄动的原因。

手下没人了,光杆司令了。

这是比较高级别的官员,下面不知道换掉了多少,一直在大清洗。

就是四中全会,习近平一号召自己的中央委员起来反对胡锦涛,那些中央委员肯定回答,习近平我们身边人,手下的人都换成胡锦涛的人了。我们再跟着你就是死路一条。

陈文清和王小洪,就只能这样回答习近平。31个省的政法委书记全部都换掉了,换成胡锦涛或者江泽民政治集团的人。大家看,我给大家分析出来这些,江泽民政治集团的人都少,全是胡锦涛的人。胡锦涛把刀把子全都攥在自己手里了。

所以为什么习近平是四中全会下台,不是三中全会。把习近平的人都换下去,习近平成了光杆司令。把陈文清王小洪的手下也都换下去了。不单是习近平是光杆司令,陈文清和王小洪,也是光杆司令。都是没有牙齿,怎么咬人啊?好的,谢谢大家。

英文翻译

Hu Jintao holds the power of 31 provinces and is ready to strike Xi Jinping at any time. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee is imminent. How can he continue to be the general secretary with the sword on his neck? Why did the Secretary and Deputy Secretaries of the Political and Legal Committee Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong, and the Commander of the Armed Police Wang Chunning surrender? Aren’t there any real men among them?

Hello everyone, Chen Wenqing is the Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee, and Wang Xiaohong is the Deputy Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee. Chen Wenqing was sent to the second line to serve as the President of the Chinese Law Society.

Qi Yanjun, a close henchman of Wang Xiaohong, was removed from the powerful position of the Nine Gates Admiral. Wang Chunning, the Political and Legal Committee member and the Commander of the Armed Police, was simply arrested. Think about why Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong dared not say a word and surrendered.

Actually, I don’t want to talk about it. The reason is obvious. The Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee is more sensitive. These grandsons monitor my program every day. Many people have crooked ideas. They regard my program as a guide to being an official. They are the ones who monitor, and the one who is close to the water gets the moon first.

They have already made a move. If they knew that their superiors were Xi Jinping’s men, they would be ready to jump ship at any time. Such a crooked idea. I said this, which turned into giving them guidance. So, I will not expand on some of them, and I can’t let them get away with it. Let’s talk about it first, and then look at the knife handles of the 31 provinces. At present, how many provinces does Hu Jintao control. When will they be ready to take action against Xi Jinping and finally show their cards. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee is like an arrow on the string, which has to be fired. It is the Chenqiao mutiny, the yellow robe, and the atmosphere has been set here. It is impossible not to take action.

Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Chinese officials are evaluating a potential plan. If TikTok fails to block the controversial “sell or ban” bill, the company’s US business may be sold to the well-known entrepreneur Musk. TikTok has now said that this statement is “purely fictitious.” In addition, facing the possibility that TikTok may be banned by US authorities, many US users are switching to another Chinese social platform “Little Red Book”.

People familiar with the matter said that Beijing officials strongly hope that TikTok will still be owned by its parent company ByteDance, and the company has also appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court against the upcoming “no sale or ban” bill. But in the debate on January 10, 2025, the judges said they might support the bill. First of all, I am relieved that the judge agreed to ban TikTok. The United States is a country with a separation of powers. The power of the president of the United States is indeed very large. However, it cannot cover the sky with one hand. So, in addition to the president’s discretion. There is also the court system. China, ByteDance, is using the U.S. judicial system. Trying to get away with it.

Now China has also completed the judicial remedies in the United States. In fact, it is just waiting for changes. I hope that there will be some changes in the United States so that China can find loopholes. The judicial process is relatively long. Now, ByteDance has also completed the judicial procedures in the United States. The court also believes that TikTok is a major national security risk to the United States. In other words, whether it is the U.S. administrative system, the president here, or the U.S. judicial system. The court. has reached a unified understanding. TikTok is a spyware and a national security threat to the United States. Then stop talking nonsense, abide by American laws, let him sell, and ByteDance should sell it quickly.

People familiar with the matter revealed that reaching a deal with Musk, one of President Trump’s closest allies, has a certain appeal to the Chinese government, which is expected to have a certain say in whether TikTok is ultimately sold. It is reported that if one scenario discussed by the Chinese government is followed, Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) will take over TikTok’s US business and merge the two companies’ businesses. TikTok has more than 170 million users in the United States, which can help X attract advertisers. Musk has also established an independent artificial intelligence company xAI, which can benefit from the large amount of data generated by TikTok.
People familiar with the matter also said that Chinese officials have not reached any firm consensus on how to advance this agreement, and the relevant discussions are still in the preliminary stage. It is not clear how much ByteDance knows about the Chinese government’s discussions, or whether TikTok and Musk are involved. It is also unclear whether Musk, TikTok and ByteDance have had any discussions on the terms of any possible transaction. Later today, a TikTok spokesperson told the media that the company could not be expected to comment on “purely fictitious” matters. In fact, it is also obvious here that ByteDance has no say at all, and it is the Chinese government that has the final say. Of course, ByteDance dare not publicly refute the Chinese government.

To put it bluntly, the Chinese government still hopes to use this matter as a bargaining chip. It just wants to buy a short favor. However, what is particularly abstract is that in the face of the possibility that TikTok will be banned by the US authorities, many American users are switching to another Chinese social platform, “Little Red Book”. Before the US Supreme Court ruled on the ban, TikTok users were fleeing the social platform, prompting a surge in downloads of its Chinese competitor “Little Red Book” in the United States. Although it is not known how many downloads of “Little Red Book” are currently, it topped the list of free app downloads in the US Apple Store on Monday.

If the Supreme Court does not block the forced sale order before January 19, 2025, TikTok will no longer be available for download in the Apple or Google app stores, but existing users can continue to use the app for a period of time. Personally, I think these abstract TikTok users are all short-term behaviors. Including the blue sky platform without any freedom of speech. No one uses it.

First of all, the order I mentioned is based on the importance of each province. Of course, the most important province in China is Shanghai. According to the previous provincial party secretaries, they get 2 points for becoming members of the Politburo Standing Committee, 1 point for the Politburo, 0.5 points for vice-chairmen of the National People’s Congress, vice-chairmen of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, state councilors, presidents of the Supreme Court, and procurators-general of the Supreme Procuratorate. Shanxi is China’s political depression, and no one has ever been a vice-state level official.

In fact, it is very simple. Chen Wenqing is the secretary of the Political and Legal Committee, and Wang Xiaohong is the deputy secretary of the Political and Legal Committee. Chen Wenqing was sent to the second line to serve as the president of the Chinese Law Society. Wang Xiaohong’s iron henchman Qi Yanjun was removed from the powerful position of the Nine Gates Admiral. Why are Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong so honest? That is to say, not only will Xi Jinping soon become a commander without troops, but Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong will also become commanders without troops. Which faction do the secretaries of the Political and Legal Committee of these 31 provinces belong to? Are they Hu Jintao’s people or Xi Jinping’s people? We don’t know, don’t the Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee Chen Wenqing and the Deputy Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee Wang Xiaohong know? Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong must have known what was going on. That’s why Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong dared not act rashly.

The legs below were taken away, replaced, and retired. How can they still oppose? What can a commander without troops use to oppose?

Let me reply to this netizen. The netizen said, “Host, I admire your analysis very much, and you have never missed any session, but I have a question. If most of the Central Committee members are from Xi Jinping’s faction at the Fourth Plenary Session, it will be difficult for Xi Jinping to step down at the Fourth Plenary Session. Can you analyze which faction most of the current Central Committee members belong to, Xi Jinping’s faction or not?” A netizen replied like this, “So many people have been promoted to the vice-ministerial level, and military power has also been deprived. None of those who were promoted are Bao’s people, and none of those who were arrested are not. So the power of the Politburo members is limited.”

First of all, the question of this netizen is very good, but your question is too big. First, there are 200 Central Committee members. Do you want to tire me to death? Of course, although the workload is too huge and not very realistic, I will give you a guess, which can only be called a guess. I guess you can probably see some clues. But it is definitely not accurate. However, if all the 200 members of the Central Committee are picked out, it will definitely be a God’s perspective. Then there is no need to analyze anything. It is just like my analysis of the 24 generals. It seems that I am wrong about two or three. It doesn’t matter at all, and it does not affect the conclusion. Once the 24 generals are picked out, it is a God’s perspective.

If the 200 members of the Central Committee are picked out, even if 50 are wrong, if more than 150 are correct, then it is a God’s perspective. The second is that they are all Xi Jinping’s people. This should not be a problem. There will be such a problem in every change of leadership. Otherwise, there would be no change of leadership before. The so-called small matters are held in big meetings, big matters are held in small meetings, and especially important matters are not held in meetings. In other words, the personnel changes in the core of the Communist Party of China, to put it bluntly, whether Xi Jinping will step down, he did not decide at the Third Plenary Session or the Fourth Plenary Session. It was decided by a small circle. The Third Plenary Session or the Fourth Plenary Session is a rubber stamp.

However, in the history of communism, there are indeed cases of reversals through the Central Plenary Session. But there must be other conditions behind it.

Khrushchev’s first crisis of resignation was in June 1957. On the 18th, the elders in the Presidium of the Central Committee of the Soviet Communist Party (roughly equivalent to the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee of the Soviet Communist Party did not have the level of the Politburo Standing Committee) launched a surprise attack against the first secretary Khrushchev, demanding the removal of all Khrushchev’s leadership positions. During the three days of fierce debate, many members of the Presidium stood on the side of the elders and formed a majority. But Khrushchev and the members of the Presidium who supported Khrushchev resolutely resisted, insisting that the Presidium had no right to remove the first secretary and demanded that a Central Plenary Session be held immediately. The elders strongly resisted the convening of the plenary session. During this period, with the full support of Marshal Zhukov (although Zhukov was also forced out of office by Khrushchev four months later), the Central Committee members with military backgrounds broke into the meeting room and demanded the convening of the Central Committee Plenary Session by force, and dispatched military aircraft to summon the Central Committee members scattered all over the country to Moscow overnight. His opponents lamented: “Today they come generals, tomorrow they come tanks.” The elders were forced to agree to hold the Central Committee Plenary Session (from June 22 to 29, it lasted for 8 days, and a total of 12 plenary sessions were held). Khrushchev turned defeat into victory, defeated the elders, and declared them an anti-party group.

Now the question is, why are there more people who support Xi Jinping at the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee? Why don’t they dare to support Xi Jinping like they supported Khrushchev? Why am I sure that Xi Jinping will step down at the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee?

This is what I will tell you today, Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong. Let me give you an example. Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong are members of the Central Committee themselves. Suppose Xi Jinping asked the Central Committee members of his faction to propose that Xi Jinping continue to be re-elected at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee. Is it feasible? No, it is not feasible. First of all, Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong, who are even the most powerful, would not agree. Why do Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong, who are Xi Jinping’s die-hard followers, dare not support Xi Jinping’s continued re-election?

I will not waste my words, and show you the picture. Let’s look at what happened recently. Chongqing Political and Legal Committee Secretary Lu Kehua was arrested, and the position of Shandong Provincial Political and Legal Committee Secretary has been vacant for 10 months. These are all politically important provinces.

Tianjin Political and Legal Committee Secretary Heng Xiaofan, Jiangsu Political and Legal Committee Secretary Li Yaoguang, and Hubei Political and Legal Committee Secretary Wang Linhu all have the background of Qiang Wei. Qiang Wei was promoted by Wang Daming, a bridge friend of Deng Xiaoping. Qiang Wei was once the Secretary of Beijing Political and Legal Committee.

Anhui Provincial Political and Legal Committee Secretary Yu Aihua and Fujian Provincial Political and Legal Committee Secretary Huang Haikun were ordered to retire by Hu Jintao.

The person who will come up in two days will definitely be Hu Jintao’s man.

The political and legal committees of the top 15 political provinces in China are basically controlled by Hu Jintao.

This is why Chen Wenqing, secretary of the Political and Legal Committee, and Wang Xiaohong, deputy secretary of the Political and Legal Committee, dare not act rashly.

There is no one under them, and they are left alone.

These are relatively high-level officials. I don’t know how many of them have been replaced. There has been a big purge.

At the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee, when Xi Jinping called on his Central Committee members to rise up against Hu Jintao, those Central Committee members would definitely answer, Xi Jinping, the people around us and our subordinates have been replaced by Hu Jintao’s people. If we continue to follow you, we will die.

Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong could only answer Xi Jinping in this way. The secretaries of the Political and Legal Committees of 31 provinces have all been replaced by people from Hu Jintao or Jiang Zemin’s political group. You see, I have analyzed these for you. There are few people in Jiang Zemin’s political group, and they are all Hu Jintao’s people. Hu Jintao has all the political and legal secretaries in his own hands.

So why did Xi Jinping step down at the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee, not the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee. Xi Jinping’s people were replaced, and Xi Jinping became a commander without troops. Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong’s subordinates were also replaced. Not only Xi Jinping is a commander without troops, but Chen Wenqing and Wang Xiaohong are also commanders without troops. They are all toothless, how can they bite people? Okay, thank you everyone.

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