国际媒体首次承认习近平2025年很可能下台。反习大佬浮出水面,汇聚一堂。最高法院维持TikTok禁令。谁在福建打压习近平

大家好,最高法院维持TikTok禁令,美国政界、学界纷纷表示:这是美国国家安全和法律的重大胜利!

美国最高法院星期五(2025年1月17日)做出裁决,维持下级法院对中国短片分享平台TikTok做出的不利裁决后,美国政界和学界人士认为,这是美国国家安全和法律的重大胜利,确认了行政和立法部门对TikTok危害美国国家安全的担忧是合理的。其中有美国议员强调,最高法院的裁定不是对TikTok的禁令,而是通往更安全、更好的TikTok的路径。

在TikTok“不卖就禁”的禁令即将生效的两天前,最高法院的九位大法官星期五以9-0的票数,裁定这一禁令符合美国宪法。

根据拜登2024年4月签署的法案《保护美国人免受外国对手控制的应用程序侵害法案》,如果中国互联网企业字节跳动不在今年2025年1月19日之前出售旗下TikTok的美国业务,TikTok就将在全美被封禁。届时已经下载TikTok的用户虽然仍可以使用这个应用,但美国企业将被禁止为TikTok的发行、维护与更新提供服务。

Tikok及部分内容创作者认为该禁令违反受宪法保护的言论自由权,但美国最高法院在星期五的裁决中表示,TikTok在美禁令并未侵犯《第一修正案》权利,维持了下级法院的裁决。

美国最高法院在裁决文书中表示,TikTok 禁令“足够量身定制”,以应对中共对 TikTok 的控制以及收集美国人敏感数据的威胁。

“毫无疑问,对于超过1.7亿美国人来说,TikTok 提供了一个独特而广泛的表达渠道、参与方式和社区来源。但国会已认定,为了解决其对TikTok数据收集做法及其与外国对手的关系的担忧,剥离是必要的。基于上述原因,我们得出结论,受到质疑的条款并不侵犯上诉者的《第一修正案》权利。”

川普表示尊重最高法院的判决

美国候任总统唐纳德·川普星期五在社交媒体平台真相媒体上表示尊重最高法院的决定: “最高法院的裁决是意料之中的,每个人都必须尊重它。我对 TikTok 的决定将在不久的将来做出,但我必须有时间来审查相关的情况。敬请期待!”

同一天,川普表示,已与习近平进行了一次“非常好”的电话通话,讨论了贸易平衡、芬太尼和TikTok等问题。另据报道,TikTok首席执行官周受资将应邀参加川普的就职典礼,届时将坐在国会山观礼台的贵宾席。美国媒体报道,即将离任的拜登政府将把相关法律的实施以及潜在的禁令执行交给川普。

逐渐有国际主流媒体开始关注中国政权内部的变化。首先,我并不是完全赞同中泽克二的观点。我认为中泽克二对中国政权内部的变化的判断,趋于保守。但是,不管怎么说,纸包不住火。逐渐的有国际大媒体开始关注,承认,中国政权内部的变化。所以我才愿意给大家分享他的观点,并不代表我完全背书他的观点。

日经亚洲资深撰稿人中泽克二16日发文说,从近期中共官媒发布的一系列文章来看,中国共产党内派系斗争明显上升,由于今年将大体上决定下届领导班子,因此潜在的政治风暴很可能会在北京爆发。

今年1月1日,中共党刊《求是》与官媒央视等一起发表习近平在2023年2月的一场讲话,号称推进「中国式现代化」「共同富裕」等等。

中泽克二引述不具名中国专家称,这代表习近平派系放出讯号,也就是习近平不会改变当前的施政方向,这让习近平派系与反习派系间的矛盾越来越激烈。

中泽克二说,军委政工部主任苗华去年11月落马后,军报第二个月接连发文,提倡集体领导与党内民主;同时,人民网刊文,反对在改革上「翻烧饼」,改来改去,这些文章被认为是对习近平的反扑,其中人民网的文章很快就被删除。

中泽克二认为,虽然习近平看似牢牢掌握权力,但不满情绪已暗潮汹涌,而且军队内部斗争已明显到反常的程度,中共将在2027年秋召开二一大,但大纲在今年就会出台,因此中泽克二说,从现在开始,中共党内斗争会有增无减。

中泽克二强调了中共军队内斗已经非常激烈,而且相当有影响力。

我个人认为,求是杂志发表这篇文章,完全就是党八股,不具有任何,观察的指标意义。都已经是2023年2月的讲话了。早就已经是过去式了。反而证明了,习近平没有最新的指示。都是那习近平以前的讲话,来充充样子。

我们看习近平刚刚看完军队老同志的照片就说明问题,范长龙是江泽民的人,何卫东是习近平的人,张又侠是江泽民的人,曹刚川可能是江泽民的人,许其亮是胡锦涛的人。

我们再看这张照片里面的人,张升民,吴胜利都是胡锦涛的人,第三个不认识,范长龙,江泽民人,何卫东习近平的人,张又侠,江泽民的人,曹刚川江泽民的人,许其亮胡锦涛的人,赵克石,习近平的人我不确定是不是赵克石,刘振立,胡锦涛的人。

一共11个人,4个胡锦涛的人,3个江泽民的人,包括习近平在内才3个习近平的人,1一个不认识

这就是实力对比,胡锦涛的人和江泽民的人,加起来7个人,习近平算上他本人才3个人。不算习近平本人,现在军队习近平就两个人。何卫东一抓,习近平真的是光杆司令了,这个人不知道是不是赵克石,是赵克石,他不敢发声了。这就是实力对比,习近平被反习派团团包围。

习近平如果有本事把何卫东,赵克石之外的人,都拖出去枪毙

那再说定于一尊,否则,就是一个笑话。

这么多军队大佬,还有心情看戏呢,习近平能不大全旁落吗?

如果习近平下台了,不是别人,就是这些老军头联合起来,把习近平赶下台的。

背后牵头的那个人,还能是是谁啊。

回复一下网友,这名网友说,不知道包包怎么看晋江假药案和之后数年间包子在福建官场的迟滞?陈光毅毫无疑问是陈云宋平的马仔,从顺序上说,王兆国1990年离开福建,贾庆林成为省长,包子升福州书记,但卡着正厅到1993年才进入省委常委,如果在十四大之前解决副部,习近平不是没有中候补的机会,为何在陈光毅贾庆林任下他没有趟过这一步呢?我的回复是,首先我太清楚,当年福建官场的态势。咱们就完全按照这名网友的说法。那么现在嫌疑人,只有两个人,一个是陈光毅,一个是贾庆林。

我再来一段史料,咱们就是完全对上了。2013年出版《李锐口述往事》记载,筹备十二大的时候李锐管人事,要每个省推荐两个年轻人进中委,甘肃冯纪新推荐了两个人,一个是陈光毅——当时是甘肃省计委副主任,另一个就是胡锦涛,当时是甘肃省建委的副主任。半部论语治天下。第一,李锐的说法权威。李锐本人就是中组部副部长。当时可能不是。除非李锐撒谎。第二,不能迷信权威,尽信书则不如无书。李锐的说法经过其他的证据,验证,完全是真实的说法。

怎么验证李锐的说法是真实的呢,就是胡锦涛提拔副局级和正局级,冯纪新分别是甘肃省长,和省委书记。而胡锦涛提拔正局级的时候,宋平压根就不在甘肃省。而且宋平和宋任穷不一样。宋任穷离开第七机械工业部之后,立马晋升中组部长。有调动干部的权力。而宋平离开甘肃省只不过是计划经济委员会的一个正部级的副主任。权力很大,但是只能管经济,不能管人事。宋平后来的确干涉过甘肃官场。但那时宋平晋升常委之后的事情了。就是说宋平刚刚离开甘肃那几年,他还干涉不了甘肃的官场,不是宋平不想干涉,而是宋平暂时没有这个权力。手伸不了那么长。

第二个证据就是冯纪新提拔推荐了三个人,胡锦涛,贾志杰,陈光毅。贾志杰后来湖北就是给俞正声打前站。陈光毅去了福建。冯纪新的秘书陆浩提拔了三个人,中纪委书记李希,辽宁省委书记郝鹏,中组部常务副部长姜信治。刚好回答这名网友的问题,辽宁省委书记郝鹏的派系。猜就行。李克强当过辽宁省委书记。不说辽宁都是李克强的人。起码的有一半。李希,郝鹏,姜信治都是同样的背景。这些证据都是环环相扣,互相印证的。

所以,我们基本回答了这名网友的问题,提拔习近平的人,就是贾庆林,打压习近平的人,就是陈光毅。所以,我反复说,习近平的主线剧情就是陈毅,谷牧,贾庆林,习近平。这是千锤百炼,经过很多很多证据证实的。我看到,目前最好的史料就是李锐说的这一段。李锐这一段能解释习近平胡锦涛两个总书记。然后就是赵紫阳这一段。

赵紫阳在回忆中举了若干人的例子,他说:“薄一波还向我说过,山东省委书记梁步庭,是耀邦的人,同耀邦关系密切。说山东是个大省,要换。我也借些理由没同意动。自然,一个人不动也是不行的。像中宣部长朱厚泽,牵连较大,不得不动。还有组织部的尉健行、公安部的阮崇武。组织部也好,公安部也好,这些都是老人极为重视,必须由他们熟悉的人掌握才放心的敏感部门。”(赵紫阳:《改革历程》,2009年5月第二版第215-217页)

最关键就是中组部长尉健行和公安部长阮崇武,赵紫阳说他们两个人是胡耀邦的人。这就解释了胡耀邦和江泽民。李锐和赵紫阳就把胡锦涛习近平,胡耀邦江泽民四个总书记就说明白了。中国传统知识分子所谓的立德,立功,立言。李锐和赵紫阳纯粹是为了立言。很难想象他们是在撒谎。李锐和赵紫阳的身份有特殊,一个是中组部副部长,一个是总书记。共匪黑箱里面的事情,他们都知道。就是随时引用,他们两个人,这两段权威的说法。能够解释很多事情。

英文翻译

For the first time, international media admitted that Xi Jinping is likely to step down in 2025. Anti-Xi bigwigs surfaced and gathered together. The Supreme Court upheld the TikTok ban. Who is suppressing Xi Jinping in Fujian?

Hello everyone, the Supreme Court upheld the TikTok ban, and American politicians and scholars said: This is a major victory for American national security and law!

After the U.S. Supreme Court made a ruling on Friday (January 17, 2025) to uphold the lower court’s unfavorable ruling on the Chinese short video sharing platform TikTok, American politicians and scholars believed that this was a major victory for American national security and law, confirming that the executive and legislative branches’ concerns about TikTok endangering American national security are reasonable. Among them, some U.S. lawmakers emphasized that the Supreme Court’s ruling is not a ban on TikTok, but a path to a safer and better TikTok.

Two days before the TikTok “no sale or ban” ban was about to take effect, the nine justices of the Supreme Court voted 9-0 on Friday to rule that the ban was in line with the U.S. Constitution.

According to the “Protecting Americans from Apps Controlled by Foreign Adversaries Act” signed by Biden in April 2024, if the Chinese Internet company ByteDance does not sell its TikTok’s US business before January 19, 2025, TikTok will be banned in the United States. Although users who have downloaded TikTok can still use the app, US companies will be prohibited from providing services for the distribution, maintenance and update of TikTok.

Tikok and some content creators believe that the ban violates the constitutional right to free speech, but the US Supreme Court said in its ruling on Friday that the TikTok ban in the United States did not violate the First Amendment rights and upheld the lower court’s ruling.

The US Supreme Court said in its ruling that the TikTok ban was “tailored enough” to deal with the CCP’s control of TikTok and the threat of collecting sensitive data of Americans.

“There is no doubt that TikTok provides a unique and broad channel of expression, participation, and community for more than 170 million Americans. But Congress has determined that divestiture is necessary to address its concerns about TikTok’s data collection practices and its ties to foreign adversaries. For the reasons stated above, we conclude that the challenged provisions do not violate the appellants’ First Amendment rights.”

Trump expresses respect for the Supreme Court’s ruling

US President-elect Donald Trump expressed respect for the Supreme Court’s decision on the social media platform Truth Media on Friday: “The Supreme Court’s ruling was expected and everyone must respect it. My decision on TikTok will be made in the near future, but I must have time to review the relevant circumstances. Stay tuned!”

On the same day, Trump said that he had a “very good” phone call with Xi Jinping to discuss issues such as trade balance, fentanyl and TikTok. It was also reported that TikTok CEO Zhou Shouzi will be invited to Trump’s inauguration and will sit in the VIP seat on the viewing platform on Capitol Hill. US media reported that the outgoing Biden administration will hand over the implementation of relevant laws and potential ban enforcement to Trump.

Gradually, some international mainstream media have begun to pay attention to changes within the Chinese regime. First of all, I don’t completely agree with Nakazawa Katsuji’s views. I think Nakazawa Katsuji’s judgment on the changes within the Chinese regime tends to be conservative. However, no matter what, the truth cannot be hidden. Gradually, major international media began to pay attention to and acknowledge the changes within the Chinese regime. That’s why I am willing to share his views with you, which does not mean that I fully endorse his views.

Nakazawa Katsuji, a senior writer for Nikkei Asia, wrote on the 16th that judging from a series of articles published by the CCP official media recently, factional struggles within the Chinese Communist Party have clearly increased. Since the next leadership team will be largely determined this year, potential political storms are likely to erupt in Beijing.

On January 1 this year, the CCP party journal “Qiushi” and official media CCTV jointly published a speech by Xi Jinping in February 2023, claiming to promote “Chinese-style modernization” and “common prosperity” and so on.

Nakazawa Katsuji quoted an unnamed Chinese expert as saying that this represents the signal sent by Xi Jinping’s faction, that is, Xi Jinping will not change the current policy direction, which makes the contradiction between Xi Jinping’s faction and the anti-Xi faction more and more intense.

Nakazawa Katsuji said that after Miao Hua, director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, was dismissed in November last year, the military newspaper published articles in succession in the second month, advocating collective leadership and inner-party democracy; at the same time, People’s Daily published articles opposing “flipping pancakes” in reform. These articles were considered to be a counterattack against Xi Jinping, and the People’s Daily article was quickly deleted.

Nakazawa Katsuji believes that although Xi Jinping seems to have a firm grasp of power, dissatisfaction has been surging, and the internal struggle of the army has obviously reached an abnormal level. The CCP will hold the Second First National Congress in the fall of 2027, but the outline will be issued this year. Therefore, Nakazawa Katsuji said that from now on, the struggle within the CCP will increase.

Nakazawa Katsuji emphasized that the internal struggle of the CCP army has been very fierce and quite influential.

I personally think that the publication of this article in Qiushi magazine is completely party jargon and has no indicator significance for observation. It was already a speech in February 2023. It has long been a thing of the past. Instead, it proves that Xi Jinping has no latest instructions. They are all Xi Jinping’s previous speeches, just to make it look good.

Let’s look at the photos of the old comrades in the army that Xi Jinping just looked at, which explains the problem. Fan Changlong is Jiang Zemin’s man, He Weidong is Xi Jinping’s man, Zhang Youxia is Jiang Zemin’s man, Cao Gangchuan may be Jiang Zemin’s man, and Xu Qiliang is Hu Jintao’s man.

Let’s look at the people in this photo again. Zhang Shengmin and Wu Shengli are both Hu Jintao’s men. The third one is unknown. Fan Changlong is Jiang Zemin’s man, He Weidong is Xi Jinping’s man, Zhang Youxia is Jiang Zemin’s man, Cao Gangchuan is Jiang Zemin’s man, Xu Qiliang is Hu Jintao’s man, Zhao Keshi is Xi Jinping’s man, I’m not sure if it’s Zhao Keshi, and Liu Zhenli is Hu Jintao’s man.

There are 11 people in total, 4 are Hu Jintao’s men, 3 are Jiang Zemin’s men, and only 3 are Xi Jinping’s men, including Xi Jinping, and 1 is unknown.

This is the comparison of strength. Hu Jintao’s men and Jiang Zemin’s men add up to 7 people, and Xi Jinping himself is only 3 people. Not counting Xi Jinping himself, there are only two Xi Jinpings in the army now. With He Weidong arrested, Xi Jinping is really left with nothing. I don’t know if this person is Zhao Keshi. If it is Zhao Keshi, he dare not speak out. This is the comparison of strength. Xi Jinping is surrounded by anti-Xi factions.

If Xi Jinping has the ability to drag out and execute everyone except He Weidong and Zhao Keshi,

then we can talk about the one who is in charge. Otherwise, it will be a joke.

So many military leaders are still in the mood to watch the show. Can Xi Jinping not fall by the wayside?

If Xi Jinping steps down, it will be none other than these old military leaders who unite to drive Xi Jinping out of office.

Who else could be the person leading the charge behind the scenes?

Reply to the netizen, who said, I don’t know what Bao Bao thinks of the Jinjiang fake medicine case and Bao Zi’s sluggishness in the Fujian officialdom in the following years? Chen Guangyi is undoubtedly Chen Yun and Song Ping’s lackey. In terms of sequence, Wang Zhaoguo left Fujian in 1990, Jia Qinglin became the governor, and Bao Zi was promoted to the secretary of Fuzhou. However, he was stuck in the position of director until 1993 and entered the provincial party committee standing committee. If the deputy minister was resolved before the 14th National Congress, Xi Jinping would have had the opportunity to be a candidate for the Central Committee. Why didn’t he take this step under Chen Guangyi and Jia Qinglin? My reply is that first of all, I know the situation in Fujian officialdom very well. Let’s just follow the netizen’s statement. So now there are only two suspects, one is Chen Guangyi and the other is Jia Qinglin.

I will give you another piece of historical data, and we are completely right. According to the “Li Rui’s Oral History” published in 2013, when preparing for the 12th National Congress, Li Rui was in charge of personnel and asked each province to recommend two young people to the Central Committee. Feng Jixin of Gansu recommended two people, one was Chen Guangyi, who was then the deputy director of the Gansu Provincial Planning Commission, and the other was Hu Jintao, who was then the deputy director of the Gansu Provincial Construction Commission. Half of the Analects can rule the world. First, Li Rui’s statement is authoritative. Li Rui himself is the deputy minister of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee. He may not have been at that time. Unless Li Rui lied. Second, we should not be superstitious about authority. It is better to have no book than to believe in it. Li Rui’s statement has been verified by other evidence and is completely true.

How to verify that Li Rui’s statement is true is that Hu Jintao promoted deputy bureau-level and bureau-level officials, and Feng Jixin was the governor of Gansu Province and the secretary of the provincial party committee respectively. When Hu Jintao promoted the bureau-level officials, Song Ping was not in Gansu Province at all. Moreover, Song Ping is different from Song Renqiong. After Song Renqiong left the Seventh Ministry of Machine Building, he was immediately promoted to the Minister of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee. He had the power to transfer cadres. When Song Ping left Gansu Province, he was just a deputy director of the Planning and Economic Commission at the ministerial level. He had great power, but he could only manage the economy, not personnel. Song Ping did interfere in the officialdom of Gansu later. But that was after Song Ping was promoted to the Standing Committee. That is to say, in the few years after Song Ping left Gansu, he could not interfere in the officialdom of Gansu. It was not that Song Ping did not want to interfere, but that Song Ping did not have this power for the time being. The hand can’t reach that far.

The second piece of evidence is that Feng Jixin promoted and recommended three people, Hu Jintao, Jia Zhijie, and Chen Guangyi. Jia Zhijie later went to Hubei to scout for Yu Zhengsheng. Chen Guangyi went to Fujian. Feng Jixin’s secretary Lu Hao promoted three people, Li Xi, secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, Hao Peng, secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, and Jiang Xinzhi, executive vice minister of the Organization Department of the Central Committee. This just answers the question of this netizen, the faction of Hao Peng, secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee. Just guess. Li Keqiang was the secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee. Not to mention that Liaoning is all Li Keqiang’s people. At least half of them. Li Xi, Hao Peng, and Jiang Xinzhi all have the same background. These pieces of evidence are all linked together and corroborate each other.

So, we have basically answered the question of this netizen. The person who promoted Xi Jinping is Jia Qinglin, and the person who suppressed Xi Jinping is Chen Guangyi. So, I have repeatedly said that the main plot of Xi Jinping is Chen Yi, Gu Mu, Jia Qinglin, and Xi Jinping. This has been tempered and confirmed by a lot of evidence. I have seen that the best historical material at present is this paragraph by Li Rui. This paragraph by Li Rui can explain the two general secretaries Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao. Then there is this paragraph by Zhao Ziyang.

In his recollections, Zhao Ziyang cited several examples. He said: “Bo Yibo also told me that Liang Buting, secretary of the Shandong Provincial Party Committee, was Yaobang’s man and had a close relationship with Yaobang. He said that Shandong was a big province and needed to be replaced. I also found some reasons not to agree to move. Naturally, it is not possible to not move one person. For example, Zhu Houze, the Minister of Propaganda, was implicated and had to be moved. There are also Wei Jianxing of the Organization Department and Ruan Chongwu of the Public Security Department. Whether it is the Organization Department or the Public Security Department, these are sensitive departments that the old people attach great importance to and must be controlled by people they are familiar with before they can be assured.” (Zhao Ziyang: “Reform Process”, May 2009, second edition, pages 215-217)

The most critical ones are Wei Jianxing, the Minister of Organization, and Ruan Chongwu, the Minister of Public Security. Zhao Ziyang said that the two of them were Hu Yaobang’s men. This explains Hu Yaobang and Jiang Zemin. Li Rui and Zhao Ziyang explained the four general secretaries, Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping, Hu Yaobang and Jiang Zemin. The so-called moral integrity, meritorious service and words of traditional Chinese intellectuals. Li Rui and Zhao Ziyang were purely for words. It is hard to imagine that they were lying. Li Rui and Zhao Ziyang had special identities, one was the deputy minister of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, and the other was the general secretary. They knew what was going on in the black box of the Communist Party. They could quote these two authoritative statements at any time. They could explain many things.

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