胡温掌权，习下台待官宣，第三个1942年出生的人到底是谁？传言被调查的中纪委副书记肖培到底是谁提拔的？
大家好，某大威突然转向，声称一位朋友告诉他，去年从延安的中共全军政治工作会议开始，习近平的权力就已经被大大的削弱，而且现在对习近平来说，下台只是等待官宣的问题，而且官宣的时间不会拖得太久。就像之前很多自媒体说的，有可能在四中全会，有可能最晚不会拖到明年。对方对上述消息颇为肯定。某大威表示，对方从高层得到的消息说，“现在军队的权力已经到了张又侠的手上，其它的都已经不重要了，习近平只是一个挂名的军委主席了。”对方还说，现在中共的权力已经回到了三个老人的手上，都是1942年出生的。
这个1942年出生的人，肯定是胡锦涛和温家宝，这是公认。那么第三任到底是谁。网友给出了很多的看法。我给大家总结一下。然后再说一下肖培。中纪委副书记，传言要被抓了，我们分析一下肖培的派系背景。肖培早期和这张很出名的照片，中的某个人物有交集。这张很出名的稻上飞的照片，被毛左拿来给毛泽东洗地。但是他们根本就不知道，这张照片里面的人都是谁。除了邓小平，其他几个人到底是谁呢？是哪个派系的人呢？毛左什么不都懂，越洗越黑，越描越黑。
毛泽东干了那么多罪恶滔天的事情，怎么可能能洗白呢？纯属历史虚无主义，毛左不知道他们脑子装的什么东西。这名网友说，大V转向也是一种习近平权力被消弱，量变到质变的体现，开始动习近平的海外大外宣了！我的回复是，对，大外宣就是习近平这个派系的。江泽民和胡锦涛政治集团没有大外宣。江胡当政的时候，中国还没有那么有钱。也就是说大外宣这笔经费，是在中国政府内部的预算。习近平这么多年是总书记，肯定是在习近平手中控制的。所以，习近平如果下台的话，大外宣的经费肯定被断了。
新上台的中共独裁者，有两种可能，一种是中国现在经济也不好，就直接顺势砍掉这笔经费。另外一种可能是，即便中共要继续养大外宣，那应该也是养一批新的走狗。没有猎人会用别人的狗去打猎。其实我挺想看着热闹的。据说大外宣的经费是半年结算一次，按月结算挺频繁了，太不方便了。又不可能一次性打款，那样的话，中共就没有办法控制大外宣了。所以肯定是定期结算。如果习近平下台了，我们可以看看有没有大外宣，由于习近平已经事先付款了，结果大外宣还在继续吹捧习近平，这就是真正的海外孤忠。
这名网友说，刘淇是1942年出生的，合理性可能是江派代表和年龄因素。我的回复是这个思路确实靠谱。一是刘淇的确是比曾庆红小三岁，二是刘淇的确江泽民团队的核心成员。因为江泽民钦定的接班人，孙政才给刘淇当大秘，放在刘淇那里培养。而且我发现孙政才是曾庆红家的亲戚。江泽民给孙政才储备好多人，正部级副部级的人选，准备孙政才当班底的。也就是说由于孙政才是曾庆红家的亲戚，江泽民是认真的，真的想把孙政才培养成接班人的。
比如说现在人民日报社社长于绍良，正部级。当年就是孙政才的大秘王辅捷在河北提拔的。这本来应该是孙政才的班底。还能找出来至少五六个，和孙政才有关系的正部级副部级。这肯定都是当年江泽民给孙政才准备的。现在孙政才住在秦城里面，这些人都上来了。如果孙政才没抓，肯定上来的官员更多。所以刘淇的确是江泽民团队的核心成员，他虽然不是常委，但是也是资深的政治局委员。所以猜测刘淇也是合理的。
而且有好几个官员当年都是刘淇提拔，刘淇在背后代表江泽民政治集团在操盘。合理性也是很高的。比如说广西党委书记陈刚，当年就是刘淇在北京提拔的。陈刚是江泽民的扬州老乡。现在已经刷了两个省委书记的资历了。这明显要进政治局了，将来会不会进常委不确定。但是进政治局几乎是百分百了。陈刚就是刘淇的马仔，刘淇在操盘，也很有可能。其实这就是推测方法，为什么我说胡锦涛操盘。因为很多李克强的马仔都被提拔上去了。习近平提拔谁都不可能提拔李克强的人。
只有李克强的干爹胡锦涛才会提拔李克强的人。江泽民这边，这个陈刚当年就是刘淇亲手提拔的，现在如果刘淇操盘，要保送自己人进政治局也是合理的。其实就是反推，把江泽民这边上位的人，当年到底是谁提拔的。那肯定就是谁在操盘。这名网友说某大威这种行为算不算跳船？这名网友说，某老师就是两边带话的。这名网友说，也是鸡你太美的另外一种表现形式。这名网友说，某大威是习近平派系的大外宣，他放消息要么是跳船了。
这名网友说，应该是胡锦涛温家宝贺国强。他是猜测贺国强。这名网友说，第三个人可能不存在，就是给胡温打掩护的。这名网友说，按照常理推测应该是两个胡锦涛派，还要一个江泽民派。这名网友和刚才猜测刘淇的网友是同样的思路。
这个的确是，从三中全会提拔的官员来看，也基本上是胡锦涛和江泽民两大政治集团平分秋色。当然也可能是六四或者四六，也可能是五五，反对基本差不多。我统计的差太远。现在应该有一百四十个到150个，我刚刚统计到117个。这个还没有统计国企老总。国企老总好多都是副部级的。这些官员的派系背景，大致就是江胡五五开，几乎是没有习近平的人。
就是字面上的没有一个习近平的人。当然有个两三个也不稀奇。就是我统计的这117个人，习近平的人不超过5个。实际我觉得应该是零。因为不可能把每个官员，都挖的那么细，就是大概看一下。就真的没有习近平的人。就是平调有可能是习近平的人。
就是除非这里面突然大批出现了习近平的马仔。才能证明习近平重新掌权了。一个半个的不能说明问题，可能是看错了。一个官员都爬了二三十年。他到底去找谁钻营的，不还说。我暂时就没有发现特别明显的习近平痕迹的官员。这名网友说，某大威都改口了，形势比人强。
中纪委副书记肖培被调查，我们分析一下肖培。首先要说中纪委，李希和张升民是胡锦涛的人，刘金国是江泽民的人。中纪委书记和第一副书记如果是习近平的人肯定不是会抓秦刚李尚福苗华的。就这么想就行了，如果十八届中纪委书记不是王岐山而是李克强。李克强会不抓令计划。
或者说十八届中纪委书记就是胡锦涛，胡锦涛会抓令计划吗？怎么可能呢？现在李希已经把秦刚和苗华都抓了，他不可能习近平的人。哪有抓自己人的。所以肖培就是习近平目前安插在中纪委里面排名最高的副书记了。肖培前面还有三个中纪委书记副书记。所以肖培除了当中纪委最大的内鬼，天天通风报信。没有什么实际的作用。凡是习近平的人主动投案，那肯定通风报信了。不然所有的官员都应该主动投案，哪里有不贪污的官员。为什么就他主动投案呢。
肖培为什么是习近平的人呢，我们看网上的说法，肖培调任中纪委被广泛视为是现任中纪委书记王岐山亲自点将的。因为在王岐山担任北京市市长期间，肖培曾先后担任北京市委宣传部副部长、北京市委副秘书长和北京市文化局长等职务。这种说法到底准确还是不准确呢？2002年3月，41岁的肖培任中共北京市委宣传部副部长、北京市外宣办（北京市政府新闻办）主任，市委处理法轮功问题领导小组办公室（市政府防范和处理邪教问题办公室）副主任（兼）。
而王岐山是2003年4月才到的北京。也就是说，王岐山遇见肖培的时候，肖培已经是正局级了。这还BBC呢，天天造假新闻。肖培和王岐山是同一个派系的不假。但是BBC这句话《在王岐山担任北京市市长期间，肖培曾先后担任北京市委宣传部副部长、北京市委副秘书长和北京市文化局长等职务。》这句话是彻头彻尾的谎言。
因为肖培担任北京市委宣传部副部长是在王岐山担任北京市长之前任命的。而肖培担任北京市委副秘书长和北京市文化局局长是在王岐山担任北京市长之后任命的。这BBC果然是假新闻，基本的事实都搞不清楚。
肖培兼任北京奥组委新闻宣传部部长和北京市网管办主任，是在王岐山北京市长任期内发生的。肖培第一次提拔正局级是北京市委宣传部副部长，北京市外宣办主任。当时的北京市市委书记是贾庆林，北京市长是刘淇。刘淇和肖培不是一个派系的。也就是说，肖培的正局级不是别人，正是贾庆林提拔的。贾庆林还提拔习近平。
所以BBC写的文章是槽点满满，完全不是事实。基本的时间线都搞不明白。只不过刚好贾庆林和王岐山是同一个派系的而已。是贾庆林提拔的肖培，根本不是王岐山提拔的。虽然因为肖培和王岐山是同一个派系的，王岐山重用了肖培。
其实肖培很明显，我们卡一下时间线就知道了。
1994年3月，1994年3月，肖培任北京青年报社总编辑（1994年6月，升副局级）。
2002年3月，贾庆林提拔肖培正局级。
2014年3月，中共中央纪委宣传部部长，中办调研室五组组长（4月升副部长级）。
肖培的副部级表面上是王岐山提拔的。实际上王岐山不能提拔副部级，肖培副部级就是习近平本人亲自提拔的。
肖培副局级到正局级用了8年，就是江泽民任期之内。
肖培正局级到副部级用了12年，就是在胡锦涛的任期之内。
肖培副部级到正部级用了3年，就是习近平的任期之内。
肖培副部级和正部级都是习近平亲自提拔的。
这个很明显在江胡时代，肖培晋升很慢，到了习近平时代噌就上去了。所以肖培是习近平亲自指挥，亲自部署，亲自提拔的。王岐山啥都不是，王岐山就是习近平一个小马仔。上不了台面。肖培遇见王岐山的时候已经正局级了。
下支影片我继续给大家讲讲，肖培到底是谁提拔的，和这张著名的稻上飞的照片，这几个人到底是什么关系。好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Hu and Wen are in power, Xi’s resignation is waiting for official announcement, who is the third person born in 1942? Who promoted Xiao Pei, the deputy secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection who is rumored to be under investigation?
Hello everyone, a certain big wei suddenly changed his mind and claimed that a friend told him that Xi Jinping’s power has been greatly weakened since the CPC’s All-Army Political Work Conference in Yan’an last year, and now for Xi Jinping, resignation is just a matter of waiting for official announcement, and the official announcement will not be delayed for too long. As many self-media said before, it may be at the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee, and it may not be delayed until next year at the latest. The other party is quite sure of the above news. A certain big wei said that the other party got news from the top that “the power of the army has now been in the hands of Zhang Youxia, and the others are no longer important. Xi Jinping is just a nominal chairman of the Military Commission.” The other party also said that the power of the CPC has now returned to the hands of three old men, all born in 1942.
This person born in 1942 must be Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, which is recognized. So who is the third one? Netizens have given many opinions. Let me summarize it for you. Then let’s talk about Xiao Pei. The deputy secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is rumored to be arrested. Let’s analyze Xiao Pei’s factional background. Xiao Pei had an intersection with a person in this very famous photo in the early days. This very famous photo of rice flying on the ground was used by Maoists to whitewash Mao Zedong. But they don’t know who the people in this photo are. Who are the other people except Deng Xiaoping? Which faction are they from? Maoists don’t know anything. The more they whitewash, the blacker it gets. Mao Zedong did so many heinous things, how could he be whitewashed? It’s pure historical nihilism. Maoists don’t know what’s in their heads. This netizen said that the big V’s shift is also a manifestation of Xi Jinping’s power being weakened and the change from quantitative to qualitative. They started to touch Xi Jinping’s overseas propaganda! My reply is, yes, the overseas propaganda is from Xi Jinping’s faction. Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao’s political group did not have overseas propaganda. When Jiang and Hu were in power, China was not that rich. That is to say, the funds for the big foreign propaganda are in the internal budget of the Chinese government. Xi Jinping has been the general secretary for so many years, and it must be controlled by Xi Jinping. Therefore, if Xi Jinping steps down, the funds for the big foreign propaganda will definitely be cut off.
There are two possibilities for the new CCP dictator. One is that China’s current economy is not good, so he will directly cut this fund. Another possibility is that even if the CCP continues to support the big foreign propaganda, it should be a new batch of running dogs. No hunter will use other people’s dogs to hunt. In fact, I really want to watch the excitement. It is said that the funds for the big foreign propaganda are settled once every six months. Monthly settlement is quite frequent and too inconvenient. It is impossible to pay all at once. In that case, the CCP will have no way to control the big foreign propaganda. So it must be settled regularly. If Xi Jinping steps down, we can see if there is any big foreign propaganda. Since Xi Jinping has paid in advance, the big foreign propaganda continues to praise Xi Jinping. This is the real overseas loyalty.
This netizen said that Liu Qi was born in 1942, and the rationality may be the representative of the Jiang faction and age factors. My reply is that this idea is indeed reliable. First, Liu Qi is indeed three years younger than Zeng Qinghong. Second, Liu Qi is indeed a core member of Jiang Zemin’s team. Because Jiang Zemin appointed him as his successor, Sun Zhengcai served as Liu Qi’s chief secretary and was trained by Liu Qi. And I found that Sun Zhengcai is a relative of Zeng Qinghong. Jiang Zemin reserved many people for Sun Zhengcai, including ministerial and deputy ministerial candidates, to prepare Sun Zhengcai as a team. In other words, because Sun Zhengcai is a relative of Zeng Qinghong, Jiang Zemin is serious and really wants to train Sun Zhengcai as a successor.
For example, Yu Shaoliang, the current president of the People’s Daily, is at the ministerial level. It was Sun Zhengcai’s chief secretary Wang Fujie who promoted him in Hebei. This should have been Sun Zhengcai’s team. At least five or six ministerial and deputy ministerial officials who are related to Sun Zhengcai can be found. These must have been prepared by Jiang Zemin for Sun Zhengcai. Now Sun Zhengcai lives in Qincheng, and these people have come up. If Sun Zhengcai had not been arrested, there would definitely be more officials who would come up. So Liu Qi is indeed a core member of Jiang Zemin’s team. Although he is not a member of the Standing Committee, he is also a senior member of the Politburo. So it is reasonable to speculate that Liu Qi is the leader.
Moreover, there are several officials who were promoted by Liu Qi. Liu Qi is behind the scenes representing Jiang Zemin’s political group. It is also very reasonable. For example, Chen Gang, the secretary of the Guangxi Party Committee, was promoted by Liu Qi in Beijing. Chen Gang is a fellow villager of Jiang Zemin in Yangzhou. Now he has been qualified as the secretary of two provincial party committees. It is obvious that he will enter the Politburo. It is uncertain whether he will enter the Standing Committee in the future. But it is almost 100% certain that he will enter the Politburo. Chen Gang is Liu Qi’s lackey. It is also very likely that Liu Qi is in control. In fact, this is the method of speculation. Why do I say that Hu Jintao is in control? Because many of Li Keqiang’s lackeys have been promoted. No matter who Xi Jinping promotes, he will never promote Li Keqiang’s people.
Only Li Keqiang’s godfather Hu Jintao will promote Li Keqiang’s people. On Jiang Zemin’s side, Chen Gang was promoted by Liu Qi himself. If Liu Qi is in control now, it is reasonable for him to recommend his own people to the Politburo. In fact, it is a reverse deduction. Who promoted the people who came to power on Jiang Zemin’s side? That must be who is in control. This netizen asked if the behavior of a certain Dawei is considered jumping ship? This netizen said that a certain teacher is the messenger between the two sides. This netizen said that it is also another manifestation of “Ji Ni Tai Mei”. This netizen said that a certain Dawei is the big foreign propaganda of Xi Jinping’s faction. He either jumped ship by releasing the news.
This netizen said that it should be Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and He Guoqiang. He guessed He Guoqiang. This netizen said that the third person may not exist, but is just a cover for Hu and Wen. This netizen said that according to common sense, there should be two Hu Jintao factions and one Jiang Zemin faction. This netizen has the same idea as the netizen who guessed Liu Qi just now.
This is indeed true. Judging from the officials promoted at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the two major political groups of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin are basically evenly matched. Of course, it could be June 4th, April 6th, or May 5th. The opposition is basically the same. My count is too far off. There should be 140 to 150 now. I just counted 117. This does not include the CEOs of state-owned enterprises. Many of the CEOs of state-owned enterprises are at the vice-ministerial level. The factional background of these officials is roughly 50-50 between Jiang and Hu. There are almost no Xi Jinping people.
In other words, there is no Xi Jinping person. Of course, it is not uncommon to have two or three. Among the 117 people I counted, there are no more than 5 Xi Jinping people. In reality, I think it should be zero. Because it is impossible to dig so finely into every official, just take a general look. There is really no Xi Jinping person. It is possible that the horizontal transfer is Xi Jinping’s person.
Unless a large number of Xi Jinping’s lackeys suddenly appear among them, it can prove that Xi Jinping has regained power. One or two cannot prove the problem. It may be a mistake. An official has been climbing for 20 to 30 years. Who did he go to seek personal gain? No one has said it yet. I haven’t found any officials with obvious traces of Xi Jinping. This netizen said that even a certain big name has changed his words. The situation is stronger than people.
Deputy Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Xiao Pei is under investigation. Let’s analyze Xiao Pei. First of all, we have to talk about the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Li Xi and Zhang Shengmin are Hu Jintao’s people, and Liu Jinguo is Jiang Zemin’s people. If the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the First Deputy Secretary are Xi Jinping’s people, they will definitely not arrest Qin Gang, Li Shangfu and Miao Hua. Just think about it. If the Secretary of the 18th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is not Wang Qishan but Li Keqiang. Li Keqiang will not arrest Ling Jihua.
Or if the Secretary of the 18th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is Hu Jintao, will Hu Jintao arrest Ling Jihua? How is it possible? Now Li Xi has arrested Qin Gang and Miao Hua. He can’t be Xi Jinping’s people. How can he arrest his own people? So Xiao Pei is the highest-ranking deputy secretary currently placed by Xi Jinping in the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. There are three more secretaries and deputy secretaries of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection before Xiao Pei. So Xiao Pei is the biggest insider of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and he leaks information every day. It has no practical effect. If Xi Jinping’s people voluntarily surrender, they must have tipped off the authorities. Otherwise, all officials should voluntarily surrender. There are no officials who are not corrupt. Why did he voluntarily surrender?
Why is Xiao Pei Xi Jinping’s man? We can see from the online statements that Xiao Pei’s transfer to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is widely regarded as the personal appointment of Wang Qishan, the current Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Because during Wang Qishan’s tenure as Mayor of Beijing, Xiao Pei successively served as Deputy Minister of the Publicity Department of the Beijing Municipal Committee, Deputy Secretary-General of the Beijing Municipal Committee, and Director of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Culture. Is this statement accurate or inaccurate? In March 2002, the 41-year-old Xiao Pei served as Deputy Minister of the Publicity Department of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, Director of the Beijing Municipal Foreign Propaganda Office (Beijing Municipal Government Information Office), and Deputy Director (concurrently) of the Municipal Committee’s Leading Group Office for Handling Falun Gong Issues (Municipal Government Office for Preventing and Handling Cult Issues).
Wang Qishan did not arrive in Beijing until April 2003. In other words, when Wang Qishan met Xiao Pei, Xiao Pei was already at the bureau level. This is the BBC, which makes fake news every day. It is true that Xiao Pei and Wang Qishan are from the same faction. However, the BBC statement “During Wang Qishan’s tenure as mayor of Beijing, Xiao Pei successively served as deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee Propaganda Department, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee, and director of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Culture” is a complete lie.
Because Xiao Pei was appointed as deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee Propaganda Department before Wang Qishan became mayor of Beijing. And Xiao Pei was appointed as deputy secretary-general of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and director of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Culture after Wang Qishan became mayor of Beijing. This BBC is indeed fake news, and it can’t even figure out the basic facts.
Xiao Pei served as director of the Beijing Olympic Organizing Committee’s News and Publicity Department and director of the Beijing Internet Management Office during Wang Qishan’s term as mayor of Beijing. Xiao Pei’s first promotion to the bureau level was deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee Propaganda Department and director of the Beijing Foreign Propaganda Office. At that time, the secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee was Jia Qinglin, and the mayor of Beijing was Liu Qi. Liu Qi and Xiao Pei are not from the same faction. In other words, Xiao Pei’s bureau level was promoted by none other than Jia Qinglin. Jia Qinglin also promoted Xi Jinping.
So the article written by BBC is full of complaints and is totally untrue. The basic timeline is not clear. It just happens that Jia Qinglin and Wang Qishan are from the same faction. It was Jia Qinglin who promoted Xiao Pei, not Wang Qishan at all. Although because Xiao Pei and Wang Qishan are from the same faction, Wang Qishan reused Xiao Pei.
In fact, Xiao Pei is very obvious, we can know it by checking the timeline.
In March 1994, Xiao Pei served as the editor-in-chief of Beijing Youth Daily (in June 1994, he was promoted to deputy bureau level).
In March 2002, Jia Qinglin promoted Xiao Pei to bureau level.
In March 2014, he was the Minister of Propaganda Department of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the head of the fifth group of the Research Office of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee (promoted to deputy ministerial level in April).
Xiao Pei’s deputy ministerial level was promoted by Wang Qishan on the surface. In fact, Wang Qishan cannot promote deputy ministerial level, and Xiao Pei was promoted to deputy ministerial level by Xi Jinping himself.
It took Xiao Pei 8 years to get from deputy bureau level to bureau level, which was during Jiang Zemin’s term.
It took Xiao Pei 12 years to get from bureau level to deputy ministerial level, which was during Hu Jintao’s term.
It took Xiao Pei 3 years to get from deputy ministerial level to ministerial level, which was during Xi Jinping’s term.
Xi Jinping personally promoted Xiao Pei to deputy ministerial level and ministerial level.
It is obvious that Xiao Pei was promoted very slowly during the Jiang and Hu eras, but he was promoted quickly during the Xi Jinping era. So Xiao Pei was personally directed, deployed, and promoted by Xi Jinping. Wang Qishan is nothing, Wang Qishan is just a lackey of Xi Jinping. He can’t be on the stage. When Xiao Pei met Wang Qishan, he was already at the bureau level.
In the next video, I will continue to tell you who promoted Xiao Pei and what is the relationship between these people and this famous photo of rice flying on the ground. Okay, thank you everyone.