政治局向习近平述职对中国前景悲观，谷爱凌4700万训练费烧钱。中国两个拥有双重国籍的人谷爱凌和习远平
大家好，中央政治局委员，书记处书记，全国人大常委会，国务院，全国政协党组成员，最高人民法院，最高人民检察院党组书记向党中央和习近平总书记述职。这个我说对比一下去年前年的就能发现差异。对比前年的，差距就更明显了。新华社小编抄的是去年的模板，和前年的不是一个模板。前年对习近平吹捧的调子更高。
第一句和第二句没有太多的差别。第三句少一个自觉，多了一句深入学习贯彻新时代中国特色社会主义思想。第四句少了稳中求进多了沉着应对国内外形势变化带来的挑战，稳步提高人民生活水平，确保社会大局稳定。后面呢，冷不丁突然说起来八项规定，把为基层减负删掉了。
八项规定是胡锦涛温家宝的意思，2012年12月4日提出来的，当时习近平还没有掌权。习近平掌权是以把周永康抓了作为标志，习近平推出了习大大的歌曲，开始搞个人崇拜为标志的。2012年12月，习近平刚刚上台一个月，根本就没有掌权。
习近平为什么叫习包子呢，就是习近平去庆丰包子铺吃包子。当时习近平还没有掌权，假装亲民，假装八项规定。就是装给胡锦涛温家宝看的，后来习近平掌权之后就不再去吃包子了。所以莫名其妙突然提出来胡锦涛的八项规定，把自我革命这一段删掉了。把强国建设民族复兴给删掉了。
我们看对比，增加的和删掉的，中国的形势很严峻啊，稳中求进删掉了要确保社会大局稳定。意思就是中国现在社会大局很不稳定。稳步提高人民生活水平。意思就是中国的人的生活水平在下降。沉着应对挑战就是说，中国现在面临很多很多的挑战。自我革命也删掉了。苗华都抓了，自我革命就是自我打脸。去年抓的省部级刷新了所有历史数据。就是说中国已经非常腐败了。
当然了其实是政治斗争包装成反腐败。但不管怎么说，抓腐败官员的数量，创历史新高。还在那里鼓吹自我革命就是自我打脸。所以就不提自我革命了。现在中国人民生活水平降低，社会大局不稳，面临巨大挑战。所以就不再扯强国建设和民族复兴这样的淡了。总的来说，中共对中国形势的判断还是比较悲观的。这是新华社说的，不是我说的。
中国房租与房价“双跌” 需求疲软、预期悲观，短期内难以扭转
中国主要城市近日接连传出房租下跌的消息，中国财经媒体《智谷趋势》更形容主要城市租金行情“回到十年前”，仍旧找不到租客。分析人士认为，房租下跌不仅反映出青年就业困难和对城市生活前景的悲观情绪，也可能进一步冲击房地产市场信心，令经济复苏之路更显漫长。
调查显示：北上深房租“跌回十年前”，经济疲软与就业压力成主因
根据《智谷趋势》2月23日发布的报告，引用“数据”显示，2024年，北京、上海、深圳的房租水平跌回2015-2017年，广州跌至2014年，成都回到2018年，天津甚至回到了2010年的水平。报告指出，今年以来租金下跌趋势仍在持续，1月份全国40个城市平均挂牌租金环比下跌1.2%，租赁房源平均挂牌周期延长到51.9天，较上月增加6.9天，表明“降价换量”的策略已难以奏效。
也就是一年12月只能租出去10个月，除非是老房客，只要换房客，就要空置两个月，因为平均两个月才能找到新租户。此外，“中指研究院”数据显示，2023年1至11月，全国重点50个城市住宅平均租金累计下跌2.72%。
房租下跌原因是需求分流与收入预期疲软
报告分析，房租下滑的主要原因包括两方面：一是2024年中国官方推动的“保租房”大规模上市，分走了市场需求；二是居民收入预期偏弱，2023年公布财产净收入的15个省份中，北京、江苏等五个省市出现下降。《三联生活周刊》也指出，青年就业压力是租房需求下降的关键因素。2023年8月，中国16-24岁青年失业率一度接近19%，许多年轻人选择“啃老”或合租以降低开支。这个19%是假数据，实际年轻人失业率已经50%
租金下跌反映了就业机会减少和经济不景气，年轻人不愿签订长期租赁合同，进一步加剧供过于求。
房东面临困境，年轻人“向下换房”
尽管租金下降对租房年轻人更友好，但“中指研究院”调查显示，60%的受访租客计划换租，且多选择租金更低的房源。报告称，许多房东因房价疲软不愿低价卖房，转而出租；一些投资客也因为经济下行无法接受房产闲置，导致租赁市场房源激增。中国大城市的“租售比”长期偏高，年租售比甚至超过50，意味着房东需50年以上租金才能回本。如今租金快速下滑，进一步凸显需求不足。
租金下跌拖累经济，地方压力加剧
经济疲软减少了城市居民的收入和工作机会，降低了在大城市高价租房的意愿。此外，政府推动城镇化提升三四线城市生活水平，导致部分年轻人放弃大城市返乡谋职，加剧城市房租下跌。租金下滑会降低房地产投资回报率，如果房东撤资，将对一线城市经济造成更大压力，地方政府债务负担也可能加重。网民感叹：“多房的要破防，没房的不是不要活了？”“熊二”则称：“螺旋向下就是这么回事。”
房价与租金双跌，楼市复苏遥遥无期
路透社2月25日调查显示，尽管预期2025年中国救市政策或稳定楼市，但分析师仍悲观。住房库存过高、需求低迷及人口下降，使楼市复苏遥遥无期。2025年房价预计下跌2.5%，2026年或上涨1.2%，2027年涨2.0%，均低于先前预期。
这不是还挺乐观的明年后年中国的房价会小幅上涨。我觉得很难实现。
租金下跌削弱了投资意愿，进一步拖累房价。租金下跌可能影响房屋转手估值，但因为中国自有住房比例较高，租赁市场对整体经济影响有限，真正问题是空置房过多。
刺激政策难见效，恶性循环隐现
尽管中国政府推出多项刺激政策，分析人士普遍对其效果存疑。民众悲观情绪加剧，放宽资金池反被视为经济疲软的信号，导致储蓄而非投资。现在连党中央都悲观呢
有人批评政策“方向错误”，指出人口老龄化和劳动力萎缩下，应提升民众可支配收入中位数（目前仅占经济总量30%-40%），而非追求总量增长。他警告，中国经济已陷入恶性循环，外资看衰、工资下跌甚至可能引发通缩风险，短期内难以扭转颓势。
当然了中国经济虽然不好，还是有钱给谷爱凌烧钱。说明中国经济还没有崩溃。
财新网2月25日报道《谷爱凌训练经费列入财政预算引关注，年金额超过4700万元》，引起舆论大哗。此前，北京市体育局公布2025年财政预算信息，其中“本年度的优秀运动员训练比赛保障经费”4814余万元，文件中提到：“我中心与谷爱凌、朱易签署了《运动员服务协议》，谷爱凌、朱易将继续代表北京参加各项赛事，提升我市冰雪运动竞技实力和水平，力争入围2026年米兰冬奥会并取得优异成绩”。该事件引发舆论关注后，北京体育局修改了2025年度财政预算报表，将“优秀运动员训练比赛保障经费”一栏的谷爱凌和朱易的名字删除。
中国所谓的法律不允许双重国籍。但是谷爱凌拥有中国和美国的双重国籍。而习近平的弟弟习远平拥有中国和澳大利亚的双重国籍。没有人敢把习远平的中国户口给注销了。谷爱凌在中国也是违法的，违反国籍法。所以说中国没有法律。你说法治我都觉得有些好笑。好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
The Political Bureau reported to Xi Jinping that China’s prospects were pessimistic, and Gu Ailing’s 47 million training fee was a waste of money. Two Chinese people with dual nationality, Gu Ailing and Xi Yuanping
Hello everyone, members of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, secretaries of the Secretariat, members of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the State Council, members of the Party Group of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and secretaries of the Party Group of the Supreme People’s Court and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate reported to the Party Central Committee and General Secretary Xi Jinping. I said that if you compare it with last year and the year before, you can find the difference. Compared with the year before, the gap is even more obvious. The editor of Xinhua News Agency copied the template of last year, which is not the same template as the year before. The tone of praising Xi Jinping was higher the year before.
There is not much difference between the first and second sentences. The third sentence lacks the word “consciousness” and has one more sentence “deepenly study and implement the socialist ideology with Chinese characteristics in the new era”. The fourth sentence lacks the word “seeking progress while maintaining stability” and has more “calmly responding to the challenges brought about by changes in the domestic and international situation, steadily improving people’s living standards, and ensuring the stability of the overall social situation”. Later, they suddenly mentioned the eight regulations, and deleted the word “reducing the burden on the grassroots”.
The eight regulations were proposed by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao on December 4, 2012, when Xi Jinping was not in power. Xi Jinping came to power with the arrest of Zhou Yongkang, the release of Xi Dada’s songs, and the beginning of the cult of personality. In December 2012, Xi Jinping had just taken office for a month and was not in power at all.
Why is Xi Jinping called Xi Baozi? It’s because Xi Jinping went to the Qingfeng Baozi Shop to eat steamed buns. At that time, Xi Jinping had not yet come to power, pretending to be close to the people and pretending to follow the eight regulations. He pretended to be in front of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Later, after Xi Jinping came to power, he stopped eating steamed buns. So he suddenly brought up Hu Jintao’s eight regulations for no reason, and deleted the section on self-revolution. He deleted the section on strengthening the country and building national rejuvenation.
Let’s look at the comparison, what was added and what was deleted. China’s situation is very serious. Seeking progress while maintaining stability has been deleted to ensure the stability of the overall social situation. It means that China’s overall social situation is very unstable now. Steadily improve people’s living standards. It means that the living standards of Chinese people are declining. Responding to challenges calmly means that China is facing many challenges now. Self-revolution has also been deleted. Miao Hua has been arrested, and self-revolution is a slap in the face. The number of provincial and ministerial officials arrested last year has refreshed all historical data. This means that China is already very corrupt.
Of course, it is actually a political struggle packaged as anti-corruption. But no matter what, the number of corrupt officials arrested has reached a historical high. Still advocating self-revolution is a slap in the face. So let’s not talk about self-revolution. Now the living standards of the Chinese people have declined, the overall social situation is unstable, and they are facing huge challenges. So let’s not talk about building a strong country and national rejuvenation. In general, the CCP’s judgment on the situation in China is still relatively pessimistic. This is what Xinhua News Agency said, not me.
China’s rents and house prices “double fell”. Weak demand and pessimistic expectations are difficult to reverse in the short term.
Recently, news of falling rents has been reported in major Chinese cities. China’s financial media “Zhigu Trend” even described the rental market in major cities as “back to ten years ago”, and still can’t find tenants. Analysts believe that the decline in rents not only reflects the difficulties of young people in finding jobs and pessimism about the prospects of urban life, but may also further impact the confidence of the real estate market, making the road to economic recovery even longer.
Survey shows: Rents in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen “fall back to ten years ago”, economic weakness and employment pressure are the main reasons
According to the report released by Zhigu Trend on February 23, citing “data”, in 2024, the rent levels in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen will fall back to 2015-2017, Guangzhou will fall to 2014, Chengdu will return to 2018, and Tianjin will even return to the level of 2010. The report pointed out that the downward trend in rents has continued since the beginning of this year. In January, the average listed rent in 40 cities across the country fell by 1.2% month-on-month, and the average listing period for rental properties was extended to 51.9 days, an increase of 6.9 days from the previous month, indicating that the strategy of “lowering prices for volume” is no longer effective.
That is, it can only be rented out for 10 months in December of a year, unless it is an old tenant. As long as the tenant is changed, it will be vacant for two months, because it takes an average of two months to find a new tenant. In addition, data from the “China Index Academy” showed that from January to November 2023, the average residential rent in 50 key cities across the country fell by 2.72% cumulatively.
The reason for the decline in rents is demand diversion and weak income expectations
The report analyzes that the main reasons for the decline in rents include two aspects: first, the large-scale listing of “rent-guaranteed housing” promoted by the Chinese government in 2024 has divided the market demand; second, the income expectations of residents are weak. Among the 15 provinces that announced net property income in 2023, five provinces and cities such as Beijing and Jiangsu have declined. “Sanlian Life Weekly” also pointed out that youth employment pressure is a key factor in the decline in rental demand. In August 2023, the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 in China was close to 19%, and many young people chose to “live off their parents” or share a house to reduce expenses. This 19% is false data, and the actual youth unemployment rate is already 50%
The decline in rents reflects the reduction in employment opportunities and the economic downturn. Young people are reluctant to sign long-term rental contracts, further exacerbating oversupply.
Landlords are in trouble, and young people “change houses downward”
Although the decline in rents is more friendly to young people who rent houses, a survey by the “China Index Academy” shows that 60% of the tenants surveyed plan to change their rentals, and most of them choose houses with lower rents. The report said that many landlords were unwilling to sell their houses at low prices due to weak housing prices and instead rented them out; some investors could not accept idle properties due to the economic downturn, resulting in a surge in rental housing. The “rental-to-sale ratio” in China’s major cities has been high for a long time, and the annual rent-to-sale ratio even exceeds 50, which means that landlords need more than 50 years of rent to make back their investment. Now that rents are falling rapidly, the lack of demand is further highlighted.
Falling rents drag down the economy and local pressures increase
The weak economy has reduced the income and job opportunities of urban residents, and reduced their willingness to rent houses at high prices in big cities. In addition, the government’s promotion of urbanization to improve the living standards of third- and fourth-tier cities has led some young people to give up big cities and return to their hometowns to find jobs, exacerbating the decline in urban rents. Falling rents will reduce the return on real estate investment. If landlords withdraw their investment, it will put greater pressure on the economy of first-tier cities, and the debt burden of local governments may also increase. Netizens lamented: “People with multiple houses are going to break down, and people without houses are going to die?” “Xiong Er” said: “This is what a downward spiral is like.”
House prices and rents are both falling, and the recovery of the property market is nowhere in sight
A Reuters survey on February 25 showed that although China’s rescue policy is expected to stabilize the property market in 2025, analysts are still pessimistic. Excessive housing inventory, sluggish demand and declining population have made the recovery of the property market nowhere in sight. House prices are expected to fall by 2.5% in 2025, rise by 1.2% in 2026, and rise by 2.0% in 2027, all lower than previous expectations.
This is not quite optimistic. China’s house prices will rise slightly next year and the year after. I think it’s hard to achieve.
The decline in rents has weakened investment willingness and further dragged down house prices. The decline in rents may affect the valuation of house resale, but because China has a high proportion of self-owned houses, the rental market has limited impact on the overall economy. The real problem is too many vacant houses.
Stimulus policies are hard to be effective, and a vicious cycle is looming
Although the Chinese government has introduced a number of stimulus policies, analysts generally doubt their effectiveness. The public’s pessimism has intensified, and the relaxation of the capital pool is seen as a sign of economic weakness, leading to savings rather than investment. Now even the Party Central Committee is pessimistic
Some people criticize the policy for being “in the wrong direction”, pointing out that with an aging population and a shrinking labor force, the median disposable income of the public should be increased (currently only 30%-40% of the total economy) rather than pursuing total growth. He warned that the Chinese economy has fallen into a vicious cycle, and foreign investment is pessimistic, and falling wages may even trigger deflation risks, and it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in the short term.
Of course, although the Chinese economy is not good, there is still money to burn for Gu Ailing. This shows that the Chinese economy has not collapsed.
Caixin.com reported on February 25 that “Gu Ailing’s training funds are included in the fiscal budget, attracting attention, with an annual amount of more than 47 million yuan”, which caused a public outcry. Previously, the Beijing Municipal Sports Bureau announced the 2025 fiscal budget information, including more than 48.14 million yuan for “training and competition guarantee funds for outstanding athletes this year”. The document mentioned: “Our center has signed the “Athlete Service Agreement” with Gu Ailing and Zhu Yi. Gu Ailing and Zhu Yi will continue to represent Beijing in various events, improve the competitive strength and level of our city’s ice and snow sports, and strive to enter the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics and achieve excellent results.” After the incident attracted public attention, the Beijing Sports Bureau revised the 2025 fiscal budget report and deleted the names of Gu Ailing and Zhu Yi from the “training and competition guarantee funds for outstanding athletes” column.
China’s so-called law does not allow dual nationality. But Gu Ailing has dual nationality of China and the United States. And Xi Jinping’s younger brother Xi Yuanping has dual nationality of China and Australia. No one dared to cancel Xi Yuanping’s Chinese household registration. Gu Ailing is also illegal in China and violates the Nationality Law. So there is no law in China. I find it a bit funny when you talk about the rule of law. Okay, thank you everyone.