二会定调：习近平虚位元首，最高领袖却不掌握实权。面子给足，说到实权问题却忽略习。习近平可能会体面下台，光荣退休？张又侠何卫东，刘振立张升民讲话穿帮在什么地方？
大家好，我们观察得到印象就是习近平这个虚位的中国国家元首的形象越来清晰了。面子给足了，但是一谈到实权的问题，包括军权，经济权，就淡化习近平的存在，淡化习近平的影响。二会已经是三中全会之后，对习近平吹捧最猛的时候。但是和去年的二会和往年的二会相比，习近平的待遇已经相去甚远了。是不是意味着习近平在四中全会可以体面下台，光荣退休，那我就不知道了。
包括军权，政治的待遇，经济权等多个方面的表现，另外对习近平的马仔的清洗继续，毫不手软，没有任何停歇的迹象。包括苗华已经坐实了，不可能再出来了。海军政委袁华智和武警司令王春宁也坐实了。习近平军队的基本盘被砸烂了，根本就无力回天。包括许达哲，我们今天先说一下军权，两个军委主席两个军委委员的表态。三中全会之后习近平又蹦跶了7个月，半年多了。
我们先看两个军委副主席张又侠和何卫东，其实我个人认为这些话根本就不是张又侠或者何卫东说的。也就是这些套话，百分之六七十可能是张又侠何卫东说的。其余的部分都是新华社记者修改润色的。一开始可能就给他们统一的稿子了。如果有人现场发挥，脱稿发言的话，那肯定都是不做记录，现场做了记录也不可能登报的。能够发出来的都是修改过的，都是骗人，洗脑的话术。我们就看看他们有什么穿帮的地方。
我们看张又侠的说法，有习主席领航掌舵，有习近平新时代中国特色主义思想科学指引，深刻领悟两个确定的决定性意义，统一到习主席决策部署上来。真学真懂真信真用习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想。后面就把调子降下来了，说到练兵备战。这些实际工作就不再提习近平了。
何卫东怎么说的呢。党中央习主席团结带领全党全军全国各族人民，深刻领悟两个确立的决定性意义，坚决做到两个维护，贯彻军委主席负责制。我们张又侠和何卫东的差异，何卫东说了两个维护，张又侠没说，张又侠说了领航掌舵，何卫东没说，何卫东说了军委主席负责制，张又侠没说。
所以我说他们是有脚本的，不是没有证据在这里说，大家看这段文章，明显被新华社小编给匀乎了匀乎。张又侠和何卫东怎么说都没用，最后怎么写都要梅世雄和梅常伟。就是这两个梅家兄弟他们也决定不了，肯定是层层把关，有编辑有总编辑，不是一个人能决定。也并不是张又侠和何卫东能决定的。
这就是他们内部有个规定，把握宣传的调子。就是把张又侠的何卫东话，一人分成一半说。就是感觉吹捧习近平的话，基本都说出来了。但是这个气氛就是烘托不上去，就是把这个话劈成两半，一人说一半。
如果张又侠和何卫东每个人都重复一遍同样的话，吹习近平，那就杀气腾腾，那这个气氛就烘托上去，突出习近平的气氛就烘托上去了。现在就弄得这么不咸不淡的。要是说没吹习近平吧，弄说的话，除了听习主席指挥，这个没说。其他的套话都说了。
但是要说营造习近平大全在握，这种气氛，没有了。就是吹着吹着就把调子降下来了。这玩意你就不能看合订本，光看今年的没觉得怎么着，把去年的拿出来一对比，那就有差距。去年2024年，张又侠说，深刻领悟两个确立的决定性意义，坚决贯彻党中央习主席决策部署，深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想。全面深入贯彻军委主席负责制。何卫东说，党中央习主席团结带领全党全军全国各族人民，深刻领悟两个确立的决定性意义，增强四个意识，决定四个自信，做到两个维护，贯彻军委主席负责制。
张又侠今年主要是他没有说，贯彻军委主席负责制，他说了一个领航掌舵。何卫东少了四个意识，四个自信。其实看何卫东两年的讲话，都是一个模板。在改来改去的抄，就不是何卫东发言，而是新华社在定调子，把握调子。他们把张又侠话，删掉一句，把何卫东的话，删掉两句。看着没有太大的变化，调门一下子降下来了。
感觉今年有去年70%的吹捧力度。所以李鸿忠说忠诚不绝对，就是绝对不忠诚。吹捧习近平不积极，就是绝对不吹捧。以前的调子起的太高了。现在稍微砍掉一点东西，这个气氛就没有了。就是看懂空气，这吹牛还能搂着吹，还能收着吹呢，还不得牛皮吹破天。这就是习近平不行了。
我们看，中国军队特别黑暗，特别黑箱，二会成为他们亮相的机会了。董军出来了，感觉现在也没有人搭理董军，关心董军了。真的变成了一个正部级的国防部长。干一年多了。当然副国级肯定是别想了。居然没抓也挺神的。
裴金佳在军方的代表团里面出现，那些军工的代表都没有在军方代表团出现。军队和军工还是有区别的，但是裴金佳算成军队的。何宏军比习近平小10岁，何宏军都会用电脑，习近平不会用电脑，只会敲击回车键，还不认识回车键。钟绍军，还是个中将，旁边肖天亮和何平应该是国防大学的吧。李伟，郑卫平，空军的许学强和郭普校，于忠福，常丁球，沈金龙，已经退休了，他们退休的是去人大或者政协，所以都出来了。沈金龙就比习近平小5岁，都会用打字，就习近平不会。江蛤都会打字呢。
王仁华和李桥铭，陆军政委陈辉，武警政委张红兵，安兆庆，这个退休的武警政委，第一次听说这个名字。解放军有不少的上将都是退休的上将，所以把韩卫国这个退休的陆军司令抓了。董军这脸皮也挺厚的，还有脸去开二会。之前足协党委书记杜兆才他们就说，心理素质够好的。杜兆才抓之前足协的人已经传言一两个月，说杜兆才要抓了。人人都知道杜兆才要抓了，他自己也知道，还能天天去足协上班。
最后还是抓了。杜兆才是薄熙来担任辽宁省长的时候提拔的辽宁体育局局长。这习近平提拔的人，全都是薄熙来的人。习近平和薄熙来是如假包换的亲兄弟。习近平当了12年总书记，薄瓜瓜一个屁不放，现在习近平落难了。薄瓜瓜站出来发言了。
董军当不了军委委员，苗华也抓了，军委委员就剩下两个，刘振立和张升民。刘振立说，习主席统揽全局，两个确立，深入贯彻习近平强军思想，坚决完成党中央、中央军委和习主席赋予的各项任务。张升民说，以习近平同志为核心，两个确立，两个维护，贯彻军委主席负责制。
大家看出来穿帮在什么地方了吗？张又侠和何卫东像是一个人说的。刘振立和张升民又像是一个人说的。大家看出来了吧，这既不是张又侠说的，也不是何卫东说，既不是刘振立说的，也不是张升民说的。凡是在一篇稿子里面出现的两个人，就会互相呼应。
那有没有可能是现场讲话两个人互相补台。这就不可能。就是后期写稿子的人，定调子。这就穿帮了，哪有两个人说话能互相呼应。都是后期改的。这玩意，就不能看合订本，看合订本，全是穿帮。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
The second plenary session set the tone: Xi Jinping is a figurehead, but the supreme leader does not hold real power. They gave him enough face, but when it comes to the issue of real power, they ignored Xi. Will Xi Jinping step down and retire with honor? Where did Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin go wrong in their speeches?
Hello everyone, we have observed that the image of Xi Jinping, the figurehead of China’s state, is becoming clearer and clearer. They gave him enough face, but when it comes to the issue of real power, including military power and economic power, they downplayed Xi Jinping’s existence and influence. The second plenary session was the most hyped up time for Xi Jinping after the third plenary session. However, compared with the second plenary session last year and the second plenary sessions in previous years, Xi Jinping’s treatment is far from enough. Does it mean that Xi Jinping can step down and retire with honor at the fourth plenary session? I don’t know.
Including military power, political treatment, economic power and other aspects, in addition, the purge of Xi Jinping’s lackeys continues, without mercy, and there is no sign of stopping. Including Miao Hua, he has been confirmed and it is impossible for him to come out again. The political commissar of the navy, Yuan Huazhi, and the commander of the armed police, Wang Chunning, have also been confirmed. Xi Jinping’s military base has been smashed, and there is no way to turn the tide. Including Xu Dazhe, let’s talk about military power today, the statements of the two CMC chairmen and two CMC members. After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, Xi Jinping has been jumping around for another 7 months, more than half a year.
Let’s first look at the two CMC vice chairmen, Zhang Youxia and He Weidong. In fact, I personally think that these words were not said by Zhang Youxia or He Weidong at all. In other words, these clichés, 60 to 70 percent may be said by Zhang Youxia and He Weidong. The rest are modified and polished by Xinhua reporters. They may have been given a unified manuscript at the beginning. If someone gave a speech on the spot and spoke without a script, they would definitely not make a record. Even if they made a record on the spot, it would not be published in the newspaper. What can be published is all modified, and it is all deceptive and brainwashing. Let’s see where they are wrong.
Let’s look at what Zhang Youxia said. With Chairman Xi at the helm and Xi Jinping’s new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics as the scientific guide, we deeply understand the decisive significance of the two determinations and unify them with Chairman Xi’s decision-making and deployment. We should truly learn, understand, believe in and use Xi Jinping’s new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Later, the tone was lowered and it was about training and preparing for war. These practical work no longer mentioned Xi Jinping.
What did He Weidong say? Chairman Xi of the Party Central Committee united and led the whole party, the whole army and the people of all ethnic groups in the country to deeply understand the decisive significance of the two determinations, resolutely achieve the two maintenances, and implement the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Military Commission. The difference between our Zhang Youxia and He Weidong is that He Weidong talked about the two maintenances, but Zhang Youxia didn’t. Zhang Youxia talked about leading the way, but He Weidong didn’t. He Weidong talked about the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Military Commission, but Zhang Youxia didn’t.
So I said they had a script, not without evidence. Everyone, look at this article, it is obviously smoothed out by the editor of Xinhua News Agency. It’s useless for Zhang Youxia and He Weidong to say anything. In the end, they all have to be written by Mei Shixiong and Mei Changwei. Even the two Mei brothers couldn’t decide. There must be layers of checks, including editors and editors-in-chief. It’s not something that one person can decide. It’s not something that Zhang Youxia and He Weidong can decide.
That’s why they have an internal rule to control the tone of propaganda. That is, Zhang Youxia and He Weidong’s words are divided into half. It feels like the words that praise Xi Jinping have basically been said. But the atmosphere can’t be set off, that is, the words are split into two halves, and each person says half.
If Zhang Youxia and He Weidong each repeat the same words, praising Xi Jinping, then the atmosphere will be murderous, and the atmosphere of highlighting Xi Jinping will be set off. Now it’s so bland. If you say that you didn’t praise Xi Jinping, if you say it, you didn’t say anything except that you follow Chairman Xi’s command. All other clichés were said.
But if you say that you want to create an atmosphere that Xi Jinping has everything under control, that’s gone. The tone has been lowered as you’re praising. You can’t read this stuff in a bound volume. I didn’t feel anything when I just read this year’s. If I compare it with last year’s, there is a gap. Last year in 2024, Zhang Youxia said that we should deeply understand the decisive significance of the two establishments, resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and Chairman Xi, and deeply study and implement Xi Jinping’s new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Comprehensively and thoroughly implement the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Military Commission. He Weidong said that the Party Central Committee and Chairman Xi united and led the whole party, the whole army and the people of all ethnic groups in the country to deeply understand the decisive significance of the two establishments, strengthen the four consciousnesses, determine the four confidences, achieve the two maintenances, and implement the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Military Commission.
Zhang Youxia didn’t say this year that he would implement the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Military Commission. He said a navigation and steering. He Weidong lacked the four consciousnesses and four confidences. In fact, looking at He Weidong’s speeches for two years, they are all the same template. If you copy and revise them, it’s not He Weidong who is speaking, but Xinhua News Agency that is setting the tone and grasping the tone. They deleted one sentence of Zhang Youxia’s words and two sentences of He Weidong’s words. It seems that there is not much change, and the tone has dropped all of a sudden.
It feels like this year’s flattery is 70% of last year’s. So when Li Hongzhong said that loyalty is not absolute, it means that he is absolutely not loyal. If he is not active in flattering Xi Jinping, it means that he is absolutely not flattering. The tone was too high before. Now if we cut a little, the atmosphere will disappear. He just knows how to read the atmosphere. He can still brag and hold back. He will definitely brag to the sky. This is why Xi Jinping is not good enough.
We can see that the Chinese military is particularly dark and black-box. The second session has become their opportunity to show up. Dong Jun has come out, and it seems that no one cares about Dong Jun or cares about Dong Jun now. He has really become a ministerial-level defense minister. He has been working for more than a year. Of course, he must forget about the vice-state level. It is amazing that he was not arrested.
Pei Jinjia appeared in the military delegation, while the representatives of the military industry did not appear in the military delegation. There is still a difference between the military and the military industry, but Pei Jinjia is considered a military member. He Hongjun is 10 years younger than Xi Jinping. He Hongjun can use a computer, but Xi Jinping can’t. He can only hit the enter key, and he doesn’t know it. Zhong Shaojun is still a lieutenant general. Xiao Tianliang and He Ping next to him should be from the National Defense University. Li Wei, Zheng Weiping, Xu Xueqiang and Guo Puxiao from the Air Force, Yu Zhongfu, Chang Dingqiu, Shen Jinlong, have retired. They retired to the National People’s Congress or the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, so they all came out. Shen Jinlong is 5 years younger than Xi Jinping. He can type, but Xi Jinping can’t. Jiang Zemin can type.
Wang Renhua and Li Qiaoming, Chen Hui, the political commissar of the army, Zhang Hongbing, the political commissar of the armed police, An Zhaoqing, this retired political commissar of the armed police, this is the first time I heard this name. There are many retired generals in the People’s Liberation Army, so they arrested Han Weiguo, the retired army commander. Dong Jun is also very thick-skinned. He still has the nerve to attend the second meeting. Before, Du Zhaocai, the secretary of the Party Committee of the Football Association, said that his psychological quality is good enough. Before Du Zhaocai was arrested, there had been rumors among the people of the Football Association that Du Zhaocai was going to be arrested for a month or two. Everyone knew that Du Zhaocai was going to be arrested, and he knew it too, but he could still go to work at the Football Association every day.
In the end, he was arrested. Du Zhaocai was promoted to Director of Liaoning Sports Bureau when Bo Xilai was the Governor of Liaoning Province. All the people promoted by Xi Jinping are Bo Xilai’s people. Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai are brothers without a doubt. Xi Jinping has been the General Secretary for 12 years, and Bo Guagua never said a word. Now Xi Jinping is in trouble. Bo Guagua stood up and spoke.
Dong Jun cannot be a member of the CMC, and Miao Hua has also been arrested. There are only two members of the CMC left, Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin. Liu Zhenli said that Chairman Xi took overall control, established two things, thoroughly implemented Xi Jinping’s thoughts on strengthening the military, and resolutely completed the various tasks assigned by the Party Central Committee, the Central Military Commission, and Chairman Xi. Zhang Shengmin said that with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, established two things, maintained two things, and implemented the system of responsibility of the Chairman of the CMC.
Did you see where the mistake was? Zhang Youxia and He Weidong seem to be the same person. Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin seem to be the same person. You can see that this is neither Zhang Youxia nor He Weidong, nor Liu Zhenli nor Zhang Shengmin. Whenever two people appear in a manuscript, they will echo each other.
Is it possible that the two people complemented each other during the live speech? This is impossible. It is the person who wrote the manuscript later and set the tone. This is a mistake. How can two people talk in a way that echoes each other? They were all changed later. This stuff cannot be read in the bound volume. If you read the bound volume, it will be full of mistakes.
OK, thank you everyone.