从王志安前妻事件和温家宝离不开人民的觉醒的谈话，聊一下为什么中国无法民主，陷入了独裁的怪圈
大家好，我刚刚看了温家宝著名的那一段讲话，这段讲话是以文化大革命可能重新发生，来进行传播的。其实里面温家宝说了一个更重要的话。他说的是，任何一项改革必须有人民的觉醒，人民的支持，人民的积极性和创造精神。民主改革必须是自下而上，不可能说是温家宝站出来振臂一呼，中国就一夜之间民主化。最最重要的就是人民的觉醒。从王志安前妻这个事件来说，最终都是让中国走向更加独裁的那个方向。而不是走向更加民主自由的方向。我就说一下，我理解的原因是什么。
首先我们推特某大威的说法，他说，我不清楚日本的法律，如果是在加州，警察来了反而会逮捕王志安，因为涉嫌家暴前妻。他前妻一开始是被允许入住的，有住户权利，王志安、警察不能随意赶人，需要法官判决。这个极左的大威果然是牛啊，加州的法律如果和他说一样，那就是颠倒黑白是非的法律。
“风能进，雨能进，国王不能进”，这是法律人最为耳熟能详的一句经典格言。人们经常用这句话来表明自己的私有财产神圣不可侵犯。共产主义的法律就是要否定私有财产的权力。首先呢，王志安从道德上，是挺孙子的。把他的前妻赶出他的私宅。但是我们如果不去纠结这些细节问题。王志安怎么操作的，这个单说，但从私有财产神圣不可侵犯这个角度来说。他要求他的前妻离开他的私人住宅，从法律上说应该没有太大的毛病。而且王志安的前妻后来自己说了。
日本警察跟她的前妻说，王志安应该正式通知他的前妻离开他的私人住宅。如果他的前妻再不离开的话，他的前妻可能就要触犯日本的法律的。也就是说，我们根据王志安前妻的描述，日本的法律原则上，就是执行的是私有财产神圣不可侵犯的原则。不是这个极左大威所描述的加州的法律。日本还没有那么极左吧？日本也不是共产主义国家，日本是承认私有财产的。
当然了日本警察也说了具体执行的细节，还有一些步骤，正式通知什么的。毕竟赶出去就没有地方住了呀，法律上要有一些救济程序。但是别人的私有住宅，就是别人的。你没有地方住，也不能住在别人家里啊。王志安和他的前妻有道德上和法律上的纠纷，或者说王志安有什么义务。那是另外一回事。
这名网友说，对这种一哭二闹三上吊的前妻，不感兴趣，离婚不满意法律层面见，何必没有尊严祈求得到尊重。对啊，这就应该在法律上解决。当然了法律上说的容易，实际上也是很难解决的。
我们看这名网友，介绍的这件事情的情况。因为我对整个事件也不是特别了解，就是看了女方一部分影片。这名网友说女方是天涯名人800万粉丝知名大V，中科院博士，在中国工作好好的，因为王志安说妻子女儿在中国是人质，做节目放不开手脚给骗来日本，女方举目无亲不会日语，女儿到手了两个月王志安就要离婚，一月给四千人民币生活费在东京，基本生存都困难，中国也回不去了。王志安女儿作证王志安有家暴殴打老婆前科。
首先，具体情况，我也不知道，清官难断家务事。我们就按照这名网友，讲解的情况去论证这件事情。因为我也没有兴趣深入了解王志安的家务事。首先前面这一段，我没法评论。妻子女儿在中国是人质，这是事实。这只能说明中共特别的无耻，没有任何的底线。王志安和他的前妻怎么处理这件事情，是他们的事情。王志安最大的问题就是家暴这个问题，这个涉及违法犯罪。
首先呢，我对王志安家暴的问题表示谴责。至于王志安家暴是不是真的，还是王志安前妻因为抑郁症导致想象胡言乱语，这个我不知道。我们就按照王志安前妻说的是真的，王志安真的有过家暴这个问题。来论述这件事情。王志安的前妻说她在中国曾经报警。然后警察来了，问王志安前妻有没有伤，王志安的前妻说第二天可能就有淤青了，那么在警察看来就是没有证据。然后王志安前妻说，她妈可以佐证。警察认为她妈，因为毕竟是亲属关系，肯定会偏帮王志安的前妻，因此证据力不足。
整个王志安疑似家暴的事情，警察的处理似乎也没有什么太大的毛病。因为王志安的前妻并没有拿出什么证据来，让警察怎么处理呢？如果警察不作为，不深入调查，特别孙子。这个确实。但是警察也没有什么手段能够调查，他王志安的家务事，家暴肯定是不对，肯定是违法，但是没有有利证据怎么处理呢？
我想说的点，就是这里。为什么中国这些社会事件导致中国越来越走向独裁这个方向呢。就说警察最大的罪过不是放过坏人，而是冤枉好人啊。中国的治安好，都是假的啊。一位刑警队长，人家亲口说的，他说你想要什么数据，就是犯罪的数据统计。他说给公安部报是一套数据，给北京市公安局是一套数据，给总队报是一套数据，自己呢可能有一套真的数据，输机，就是录入电脑又是另外数据。就是有好多套数据，全是假的，只有他自己掌握的的那一套是真的。
就是说真实的情况是，好多案子都没有破案呢。警察不作为，放过某个坏人这不是最大的罪过，但是只要冤枉一个好人，就是整个公信力的崩塌。是，故意放过坏人也是不对的。但是现实是有多少坏人逍遥法外，有多少案子没破，不差这一个。能够破案是最好的，但是如果为了破案而破案，导致冤假错案，那不如不要勉强呢。
就很多中国人，一听说人贩子就群情激愤，要求人贩子死刑。但是有没有想过人贩子没有在脑门上刻字。万一抓错了怎么办？警察不去依法处理家暴，这的确也是一种罪恶。但是我认为如果导致冤假错案是更大的罪恶。我就是觉得中国人缺乏限制公权力，限制警察权力使用的社会共识。
王志安的前妻他不是报警了吗？中国警察去了除了说片汤话，和稀泥什么解决不了啊。警察天天去管这些烂事，是有恶果的。什么事情都不解决，还给了中共独裁的合法性。因为社会有需求，让警察去处理，结果警察什么问题都解决不了。白白消耗这些公众资源，没有任何意义，还导致中国更加独裁，没有办法走向民主。
王志安的前妻到了日本，还要日本警察去处理，还拿着翻译机去处理。日本警察对解决他们家的问题，到底能起到什么作用，能有什么帮助呢。所以温家宝那段话的最重要的部分不是说文化大革命有可能重新发生，重点是要有人民的觉醒。我现在想想，当年温家宝抓黄光裕，就是为了阻止习近平。当年也没有阻止得了。
我们看一下温家宝说的吧。重点后面这句。
最近有个新闻，去年底流亡荷兰的大陆翻墙（破网）软件供应商甘文威先生。他主要介绍了中国翻墙产业的情况。他说，翻墙软件目前成本大概5块钱，算上营销费用，顶多10块钱的成本，如果卖20块钱就有10块钱的利润。主要是因为数量级高，收入就自然会高了。甘文威说，他们必须购买中国移动、中国联通、中国电信机房的高优先级出口去访问国际网络，这样用户体验才会非常好，不存在卡顿。
他说，普通人要翻墙，必须要通过运营商的出口出去。这就相当于每个翻墙的中国人，都给这些运营商无形之中交了费用。甘文威说，运营商并不是不严管，只是利益链非常巨大，一年产业规模可能上百亿，他们也想赚这个钱。管了之后大家都没饭吃，做外贸的不做了吗？中国人彻底把世界断开、闭关锁国吗？
他说。“共产党现在分成两派，习近平是一派，做事风格和言论都很极端甚至愚蠢，保政权第一；另外一派人开明， 所谓的开明就要捞钱，所以就出现了畸形产业链。”
2023年6月份，有人根据谷歌关键词搜索广告付费系统 在中国内地的覆盖人数，猜测在内地翻过墙的用户人数约为2880万人以上。就是不到3000万人翻墙，如果按照中国10亿网民来计算。3000万人就是3%。如果翻一倍是多少就是6000万人，6%。当然了不是所有的翻墙的人都反共，但是翻墙和反共的人还是有交集的。这就是温家宝说的，人民要觉醒。就是说中国翻墙的人如果从3000万增长到6000万，那共产党可能离下台就不远了。好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
From the incident of Wang Zhian’s ex-wife and Wen Jiabao’s speech on the awakening of the people, let’s talk about why China cannot be democratic and has fallen into a vicious circle of dictatorship.
Hello everyone, I just watched the famous speech of Wen Jiabao. This speech was spread on the basis that the Cultural Revolution might happen again. In fact, Wen Jiabao said something more important in it. He said that any reform must have the awakening of the people, the support of the people, the enthusiasm of the people and the creative spirit of the people. Democratic reform must be bottom-up. It is impossible to say that Wen Jiabao stood up and raised his arms and China became democratic overnight. The most important thing is the awakening of the people. From the incident of Wang Zhian’s ex-wife, it will eventually lead China to a more dictatorial direction. Instead of a more democratic and free direction. Let me talk about what I understand the reason is.
First, let’s talk about the statement of a certain big Weibo on Twitter. He said, I don’t know the laws in Japan. If it were in California, the police would arrest Wang Zhian because he was suspected of domestic violence against his ex-wife. His ex-wife was allowed to move in at the beginning and had the rights of a resident. Wang Zhian and the police cannot arbitrarily drive her away. A judge’s judgment is required. This extreme leftist Dawei is really awesome. If the law in California is the same as what he said, it would be a law that reverses right and wrong.
“The wind can come in, the rain can come in, but the king cannot come in”, this is the most familiar classic motto for legal professionals. People often use this sentence to show that their private property is sacred and inviolable. The law of communism is to deny the power of private property. First of all, Wang Zhian is morally a grandson. He drove his ex-wife out of his private house. But let’s not get entangled in these details. How Wang Zhian did it is a separate story, but from the perspective of the sanctity of private property. He asked his ex-wife to leave his private residence, which should not be a big problem from a legal point of view. And Wang Zhian’s ex-wife said it herself later.
The Japanese police told his ex-wife that Wang Zhian should formally notify his ex-wife to leave his private residence. If his ex-wife does not leave, his ex-wife may violate Japanese law. In other words, according to the description of Wang Zhian’s ex-wife, Japanese law in principle implements the principle of the sanctity of private property. It is not the law in California as described by this extreme leftist David. Japan is not that extreme left, right? Japan is not a communist country, and Japan recognizes private property.
Of course, the Japanese police also talked about the specific implementation details, and there are some steps, formal notifications and so on. After all, if you are driven out, you will have no place to live, and there must be some relief procedures in the law. But other people’s private houses are other people’s. If you have no place to live, you can’t live in someone else’s house. Wang Zhian and his ex-wife have moral and legal disputes, or what obligations Wang Zhian has. That’s another matter.
This netizen said that he is not interested in this kind of ex-wife who cries, makes a fuss, and hangs herself. If you are not satisfied with the divorce, you can see it at the legal level. Why should you beg for respect without dignity? Yes, this should be resolved in the law. Of course, it is easy to say in the law, but it is actually very difficult to resolve.
Let’s look at the situation introduced by this netizen. Because I don’t know much about the whole incident, I just watched part of the woman’s video. This netizen said that the woman was a well-known celebrity on Tianya with 8 million fans, a doctor from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and was working well in China. Because Wang Zhian said that his wife and daughter were hostages in China, he was deceived to come to Japan because he could not do his job freely on the show. The woman had no relatives and could not speak Japanese. Wang Zhian wanted to divorce his daughter two months after getting her. He gave her 4,000 yuan a month for living expenses in Tokyo, and it was difficult for her to survive, and she could not go back to China. Wang Zhian’s daughter testified that Wang Zhian had a history of domestic violence and beating his wife.
First of all, I don’t know the specific situation. It is difficult for an honest official to judge family affairs. Let’s discuss this matter according to the situation explained by this netizen. Because I am not interested in understanding Wang Zhian’s family affairs in depth. First of all, I can’t comment on the previous paragraph. It is a fact that his wife and daughter are hostages in China. This can only show that the CCP is particularly shameless and has no bottom line. How Wang Zhian and his ex-wife deal with this matter is their business. Wang Zhian’s biggest problem is domestic violence, which involves illegal crimes.
First of all, I condemn Wang Zhian’s domestic violence. As for whether Wang Zhian’s domestic violence is true or Wang Zhian’s ex-wife is imagining nonsense because of depression, I don’t know. Let’s discuss this matter based on what Wang Zhian’s ex-wife said is true, and Wang Zhian really had domestic violence. Wang Zhian’s ex-wife said that she had called the police in China. Then the police came and asked Wang Zhian’s ex-wife if she had any injuries. Wang Zhian’s ex-wife said that there might be bruises the next day, so the police saw that there was no evidence. Then Wang Zhian’s ex-wife said that her mother could corroborate. The police believed that her mother, because they were relatives after all, would definitely side with Wang Zhian’s ex-wife, so the evidence was insufficient.
The police’s handling of the entire suspected domestic violence incident of Wang Zhian did not seem to have any major problems. Because Wang Zhian’s ex-wife did not produce any evidence, how could the police deal with it? If the police do not act and do not conduct an in-depth investigation, especially the grandson. This is true. But the police have no means to investigate. Wang Zhian’s family affairs, domestic violence is definitely wrong and illegal, but how to deal with it without favorable evidence?
This is the point I want to make. Why are these social events in China leading China to move more and more towards dictatorship? Let’s say the biggest crime of the police is not letting bad guys go, but wrongly accusing good people. China’s good public security is all fake. A criminal police captain said in person that he wanted some data, that is, crime statistics. He said that he reported one set of data to the Ministry of Public Security, one set of data to the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau, and one set of data to the general team. He may have a real set of data, which is another set of data when input into the computer. There are many sets of data, all of which are fake, and only the one he has is real.
In other words, the real situation is that many cases have not been solved. It is not the biggest crime for the police to not take action and let a bad guy go, but as long as they wrongly accuse a good person, the entire credibility will collapse. Yes, it is also wrong to deliberately let bad people go. But the reality is that there are so many bad guys at large and so many cases that have not been solved, not just this one. It is best to be able to solve a case, but if you solve a case for the sake of solving a case, which leads to false and wrongful convictions, then it is better not to force it.
Many Chinese people, when they hear about human traffickers, get angry and demand the death penalty. But have you ever thought that human traffickers don’t have words carved on their foreheads. What if they catch the wrong person? It is indeed a crime for the police not to handle domestic violence according to the law. But I think it is a greater crime if it leads to false convictions. I just think that Chinese people lack social consensus on limiting public power and limiting the use of police power.
Didn’t Wang Zhian’s ex-wife call the police? The Chinese police went there and could not solve anything except talking nonsense and muddying the waters. The police deal with these rotten things every day, which has bad consequences. Nothing is solved, and the legitimacy of the CCP’s dictatorship is given. Because there is a social demand, the police are asked to deal with it, but the police can’t solve any problems. It is meaningless to waste these public resources in vain, and it also makes China more dictatorial and unable to move towards democracy.
Wang Zhian’s ex-wife went to Japan, and the Japanese police were asked to deal with it, and they even brought a translator to deal with it. What role can the Japanese police play in solving their family’s problems and what help can they provide? So the most important part of Wen Jiabao’s speech is not that the Cultural Revolution may happen again, but that the key is that the people should be awakened. Now I think about it, Wen Jiabao arrested Huang Guangyu in order to stop Xi Jinping. He failed to stop him back then.
Let’s take a look at what Wen Jiabao said. The key is the following sentence.
Recently, there was a news report about Mr. Gan Wenwei, a mainland circumvention software supplier who went into exile in the Netherlands at the end of last year. He mainly introduced the situation of China’s circumvention industry. He said that the current cost of circumvention software is about 5 yuan, including marketing expenses, the cost is at most 10 yuan, and if it is sold for 20 yuan, there will be a profit of 10 yuan. The main reason is that the revenue will naturally be high because of the high order of magnitude. Gan Wenwei said that they must purchase high-priority exits from China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom’s computer rooms to access the international network, so that the user experience will be very good and there will be no lag.
He said that ordinary people must go out through the operator’s exit to circumvent the firewall. This is equivalent to every Chinese who circumvents the firewall paying fees to these operators invisibly. Gan Wenwei said that the operators are not lax in supervision, but the profit chain is very huge, and the annual industry scale may be tens of billions, and they also want to make this money. After the supervision, everyone will have no food to eat. Will those who do foreign trade stop doing it? Will the Chinese completely disconnect from the world and close the country?
He said. “The Communist Party is now divided into two factions. Xi Jinping is one faction. His work style and speech are very extreme or even stupid. The first thing is to protect the regime; the other faction is open-minded. The so-called openness is to make money, so a deformed industrial chain has emerged.”
In June 2023, some people speculated that the number of users who have climbed over the wall in the mainland was about 28.8 million based on the number of people covered by Google’s keyword search advertising payment system in mainland China. That is, less than 30 million people climbed over the wall, if calculated based on China’s 1 billion netizens. 30 million people is 3%. If it is doubled, it will be 60 million, 6%. Of course, not all people who climb over the wall are anti-communist, but there is still an intersection between those who climb over the wall and those who are anti-communist. This is what Wen Jiabao said, the people must wake up. That is to say, if the number of people who circumvent the Great Firewall in China increases from 30 million to 60 million, the Communist Party may not be far from stepping down. Okay, thank you everyone.