河北洪灾死亡人数的最新估算：7400人至1.7万人

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1、河北涿州市码头镇码头村死了20多人
码头村有3250人
按照死亡20人-30人推算
死亡率0.6%~0.9%

2、据中国官媒中新网8月5日引述河北省应急管理厅官方微博消息说，受强降雨影响，河北98个县(区)883个乡(镇)遭受洪涝灾害，受灾人口222.29万人。截至8月4日8时，河北转移民众154.02万人，其中蓄滞洪区转移96.12万人。

3、这里出现了3种口径的统计
受灾人口
转移人口
蓄洪区转移人口
显然就是受洪水影响的程度不同
那么有多少达到了码头村这种严重程度
又有多少比码头村更严重呢？

4、我们按照平均数死亡率0.77%推算
受灾人口222.29万人X0.77%=1.7万人

转移民众154.02万人X0.77%=1.18万人
蓄滞洪区转移96.12万人*0.77%=7400人

5、估计此次中共随意泄洪，导致河北死亡7400人~1.7万人

6、据保定市政府周六8月5日报告，该市辖区内至少有10人死亡，18人失踪，60 多万人已被疏散。

7、保定市公布的死亡人数，还没有保定市涿州市码头镇码头村，一个村死的人多

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The latest estimate of the death toll in floods in Hebei: 7,400 to 17,000

More than 20 people died in Matou Village, Matou Town, Zhuozhou City, Hebei Province
Dock Village has 3,250 people
Calculated based on 20-30 deaths
Mortality 0.6%~0.9%
According to the official Weibo news of the Hebei Provincial Emergency Management Department quoted by the Chinese official media Zhongxin on August 5, affected by heavy rainfall, 883 townships (towns) in 98 counties (districts) in Hebei suffered flood disasters, and the affected population was 222.29. million people. As of 8:00 on August 4, 1,540,200 people had been transferred from Hebei, of which 961,200 people had been transferred from flood storage and detention areas.
There are 3 kinds of caliber statistics
Affected population
transfer population
Population transfer from flood storage area
Apparently it’s just the degree to which they’re affected by the floods.
So how many have reached the severity of the dock village?
How much more serious than Dock Village?
We calculate according to the average mortality rate of 0.77%
The affected population is 2,222,900 X0.77%=17,000

1,540,200 people transferred X0.77%=11,800 people
961,200 people * 0.77% = 7,400 people were transferred from flood storage and detention areas

It is estimated that the CCP’s random flood discharge caused 7,400 to 17,000 deaths in Hebei
According to a report by the Baoding Municipal Government on Saturday, August 5, at least 10 people died, 18 people were missing, and more than 600,000 people were evacuated within the city’s jurisdiction.
The death toll announced by Baoding City is not as high as that of Matou Village, Matou Town, Zhuozhou City, Baoding City. There are more deaths in one village

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