全球化不能是中国化，更不能是独裁化

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1、从上世纪90年代开始的全球化浪潮，起因在于美国开启信息技术时代之后的盲目自信，愿意带头向发展中国家输出资金和产业，带领全球一起建立自由与开放的市场。

2、经过三十年的实践，美国持续向外输出资金的结果，是其国债达到了31万亿的惊人规模；向外输出产业的结果，则是铁锈地带事实上陷入了全民贫困。美国向外输出资金和产业的行为已经不可持续，必须鼓励资金与产业回流。

3、同时，发展中国家也没有建立自由与开放的市场，一个成功的案例都没有，一个都没有。

4、美国已经承认自己的全球化战略彻底失败。

5、中国是美国这一套盲目自信的全球化战略的最大受益国。

6、接下来美国的国际战略一定会转为收缩，不再承担国际责任。

7、但是美国事实上没有对下一步怎么样的清晰计划。它丧失了此前的盲目自信，但也没有陷入到自卑状态，所以也没有明确的打压第二名的计划。

8、美国与中国之间的对抗动作，是在缺乏通盘计划的情况下，根据局势实时演变的结果，随机性很强。

9、之所以随机成现在这种彻底决裂的局面，主要是因为中国绝不接受自由与开放市场那一套，同时也不承认自己是美国全球化战略的受益国，一切成就都是因为历任总书记的英明神武。

10、美国人痛定思痛，开始制定新时代的战略，虽然具体如何制定没有定论，但方向是明确的：价值观排斥，不接受自由与开放市场准则的，就将其排斥出全球市场。

11、而中国对此趋势没有任何提前思考和应对。

2002年欧美基础制造业向中国转移，到2010年全球经济基本架构成型：中国成为制造基地，欧美成为研发和金融基地。

然而与此同时，东南亚原本强大的制造业全部扑街，传统工业强区只有台湾找到了电子代工这条路，逃过了一死，泰国马来西亚印尼全都尸骨无存，变成农产品出口国。墨西哥和南美洲的工业化之路戛然而止。非洲连最基本的工业化都实现不了，连火柴棒都生产不出来。俄罗斯甚至完成了去工业化，连石油精炼能力都丧失了。

即使欧美那边，底层居民也饱受基础制造业空缺之苦，不止美国有铁锈地带，欧洲也有，一样失业与流浪人群遍布街头。

中国的崛起，所拥有的巨大产能，足以让全世界除了中国之外的其它地区，全都陷入无法再发展制造业的窘迫地步。

而如果接下来，全世界在去中国化”的问题达成共识，那么，全世界都将是受益者，都可以分享中国倒下带来的发展空间。而可怕之处在于，已经有越来越多的国家和地区看明白了这一点，甚至都开始公开讨论这一点了。

文章转自@laomanpindao

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全球化不能是中国化，更不能是独裁化

Globalization cannot be Sinicization, let alone dictatorship

1. The wave of globalization that began in the 1990s stemmed from the blind self-confidence of the United States after it opened the information technology era, willing to take the lead in exporting funds and industries to developing countries, and leading the world to build a free and open market.
2. After 30 years of practice, the result of the continuous export of funds by the United States is that its national debt has reached an astonishing scale of 31 trillion; the result of exporting industries is that the Rust Belt has actually fallen into poverty for all. The behavior of the United States to export funds and industries abroad is no longer sustainable, and the return of funds and industries must be encouraged.
3. At the same time, developing countries have not established a free and open market. There is not a single successful case, not a single one.
4. The United States has admitted that its globalization strategy has failed completely.
5. China is the biggest beneficiary of the blindly confident globalization strategy of the United States.
6. Next, the international strategy of the United States will definitely turn into contraction, and it will no longer assume international responsibilities.
7. But the US actually has no clear plan for what to do next. It lost its previous blind self-confidence, but it didn’t fall into a state of inferiority, so it didn’t have a clear plan to suppress the second place.
8. The confrontation between the United States and China is the result of the real-time evolution of the situation in the absence of a comprehensive plan, and is highly random.
9. The main reason for the current situation of complete rupture is that China never accepts the idea of free and open markets, and at the same time does not admit that it is a beneficiary of the US globalization strategy. The secretary’s wisdom and prowess.
10. The Americans learned from the pain and began to formulate a strategy for the new era. Although there is no conclusion on how to formulate it, the direction is clear: value exclusion, and those who do not accept the principles of free and open markets will be excluded from the global market.
11. China has not thought about and responded to this trend in advance.

In 2002, the basic manufacturing industry in Europe and the United States was transferred to China. By 2010, the basic structure of the global economy was formed: China became a manufacturing base, and Europe and the United States became a research and development and financial base.

However, at the same time, all the originally strong manufacturing industries in Southeast Asia fell to the street. Only Taiwan, a traditionally strong industrial area, found the way of electronic OEM and escaped death. Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia all lost their bones and became an exporter of agricultural products. The industrialization of Mexico and South America came to an abrupt end. Africa can’t even achieve the most basic industrialization, and can’t even produce matchsticks. Russia has even completed deindustrialization, and even lost its oil refining capacity.

Even in Europe and the United States, the low-level residents suffer from vacancies in basic manufacturing. Not only the United States has the rust belt, but Europe also has unemployed and homeless people all over the streets.

The rise of China and its huge production capacity are enough to put the rest of the world, except China, in a predicament where it is no longer possible to develop the manufacturing industry.

And if next, the whole world reaches a consensus on the issue of “de-Sinicization”, then the whole world will be the beneficiaries and can share the development space brought about by the fall of China. The scary thing is that there are more and more Many countries and regions have understood this, and even started to discuss it openly.