中国负债是雷曼危机的8倍

相关视频

1、朱镕基的儿子朱云来分析，中国债务规模2018年达到720万亿，2019年达到860万亿人民币

朱云来透露的总体债务究竟准不准确，财经专家也不敢公开讨论2019年的债务规模比2018年增长了140万亿疫情三年，如果按照2019年的增速140万亿计算中国现在的债务规模是860+140*3=1280万亿如果封城导致2020年，2021年，2022年中某一年中国债务成倍增长，中国债务可能高达1420万亿2023年7月末，中国广义货币（M2）余额285.4万亿元中国的债务规模已经是广义货币余额M2的4.5倍~5倍（1280万亿/285.4万亿元~1420万亿/285.4万亿元）

2、雷曼危机的背景材料

雷曼兄弟破产、美林证券被美国银行收购、美国房价暴跌、股市腰斩，美联储连续降息，将利率降至近零水平，并先后启动四轮量化宽松。亏损700亿美元的美国两大房地产抵押贷款巨头房利美和房地美，则不得不接受政府注资并被接管。根据一些报告的评估，2004-2006年间，评级较低的“私营品牌抵押贷款支持证券”的总发行额约为1.6万亿美元，两房大约购买了其中的三分之一。房价暴跌导致房贷拖延和违约案例不断增加，而且拖延和违约的情况已经不仅局限于次级贷款的借款者。整个房地产市场上大约5万亿美元的未偿付贷款组合都面临着违约风险。2007年美国有150万套房屋丧失抵押品赎回权。到2008年，这一数字变成了220万套。

3、我们简化一下，雷曼兄弟负债6000亿美元，倒闭了两房，房利美和房地美的负债虽然少一点大约5000多亿美元但由于加了杠杆，背后可能涉及5万亿美元因此美联储认为房利美和房地美不能倒闭假设雷曼危机涉及5万亿美元负债，而2008年美国的广义货币M2是8万亿美元也就是负债占广义货币的比例是60%

4、中国的债务规模是广义货币余额M2的4.5倍~5倍雷曼危机美国债务是广义货币M2的60%也就是中国目前的债务规模是美国雷曼危机的7.5~8.3倍（4.5/0.6倍~5/0.6倍）

5、解决方案：

很简单，抄美国作业。降息+印钱呗答案写在美联储解决雷曼危机里面“将利率降至近零水平，并先后启动四轮量化宽松”因为中国欠了一屁股债，降息还能少还点钱。印钱，稀释所有国民的财富，抢劫所有国民的财富印钱到广义货币600万亿。债务风险就可以小一半当然，有通货膨胀的问题但是，这个世界上，就没有“既要又要”，只有好处，没有坏处的事情。习近平的解决方案呢？既然他认为消费是浪费资源。那就是不救经济任凭中国经济破产当然，就怕他和动态清零一样到最后，又怂了180度转弯。6、当然了中国的债务危机本质是集权朱镕基搞了分税制中央拿钱不干活地方要管事却没钱最后，搞一个土地财政

英文翻译

“China’s Debt Is 8 Times the Lehman Crisis”

1. Zhu Yunlai, son of Zhu Rongji, analyzed that China’s debt scale reached 720 trillion yuan in 2018 and 860 trillion yuan in 2019

Zhu Yunlai, son of Zhu Rongji

Whether the overall debt disclosed by Zhu Yunlai is accurate or not, financial experts dare not discuss it publicly

The debt scale in 2019 increased by 140 trillion compared with 2018

Three years of the epidemic, if calculated according to the growth rate of 140 trillion in 2019

China’s current debt scale is 860+140*3=1280 trillion

If the lockdown results in 2020, 2021, or 2022

China’s debt has doubled, and China’s debt may be as high as 1420 trillion

At the end of July 2023, the balance of China’s broad money (M2) is 285.4 trillion yuan

China’s debt scale is already 4.5 to 5 times the broad money balance M2

(1280 trillion/285.4 trillion yuan~1420 trillion/285.4 trillion yuan)

2. Background material on the Lehman crisis

Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was acquired by Bank of America, U.S. housing prices plummeted, and the stock market halved. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two major real estate mortgage lenders in the United States with a loss of US$70 billion, had to accept capital injection from the government and were taken over.

According to estimates by some reports, the total issuance of low-rated “private-brand mortgage-backed securities” between 2004 and 2006 was about $1.6 trillion, and Fanfang bought about one-third of this.

Plunging house prices have led to a rise in mortgage delays and defaults, and the delays and defaults are not limited to subprime borrowers. About $5 trillion in outstanding loan portfolios across the housing market are at risk of default.

In 2007, 1.5 million homes in the United States were foreclosed on. By 2008, that number had grown to 2.2 million units.

3. Let’s simplify it. Lehman Brothers had $600 billion in debt and went bankrupt.

Although the liabilities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are a little less, they are about 500 billion US dollars

But due to leverage, there may be $5 trillion behind it

So the Fed thinks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can’t fail

Suppose the Lehman crisis involved $5 trillion in liabilities,

In 2008, the broad money M2 of the United States was 8 trillion US dollars.

That is, the ratio of debt to broad money is 60%.

4.

China’s debt scale is 4.5 to 5 times the broad money balance M2

Lehman crisis US debt is 60% of broad money M2

That is to say, China’s current debt scale is 7.5~8.3 times that of the Lehman crisis in the United States.

(4.5/0.6 times~5/0.6 times)

5. Solution:

Very simple, copy American homework.

Cut interest rates + print money

The answer is written in the Fed’s solution to the Lehman crisis

“Reduce interest rates to near zero and start four rounds of quantitative easing”

Because China owes a lot of debt, lowering interest rates can pay back less money.

Print money, dilute the wealth of all people, rob the wealth of all people

Print money to 600 trillion in broad currency.

Debt risk can be reduced by half

Of course, there is the problem of inflation

However, in this world, there is no “need and want”, only good things, no bad things.

What about Xi Jinping’s solution?

Since he believes that consumption is a waste of resources.

That is not saving the economy

Let the Chinese economy go bankrupt

Of course, I am afraid that he is the same as dynamic clearing

In the end, I was cowardly again

180 degree turn.

6. Of course

The essence of China’s debt crisis is centralization

Zhu Rongji launched a tax-sharing system

The central government takes money and does not work

The place needs to be in charge but has no money

Finally, engage in a land finance