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潘功胜，蓝佛安，周亮，刘建超：王岐山重掌中国金融和外交大权。习近平已经接受民进党连任的现实。李强何立峰靠边站，温家宝刘鹤被习近平追打
大家好，
今天给大家聊3个话题
第一个话题是
王岐山的嫡系刘建超将接任王毅担任中国的外交部长
第二个话题是
新任央行行长潘功胜虽然是周小川温家宝的背景，但也是金融帮
也是有王岐山背景的
金融帮的三大派系，周小川，王岐山，刘鹤
习近平现在是打压温家宝和刘鹤，拉抬王岐山
财政部长蓝佛安是前任财政部长刘昆在广东的长期下属
刘昆是王岐山的人，等于蓝佛安还是王岐山的人
王岐山的秘书周亮是金融监管总局的副局长
现在王岐山在中纪委的下属刘建超将接任中国的外交部长。
为什么会出现这种情况呢
第三个话题就是一切的时间节点就是习近平访问旧金山
包括中国干涉台湾大选，中国财政部长的任命，新外交部长刘建超的任命
都是在习近平访问旧金山之后
第一个话题是
王岐山的嫡系刘建超将接任王毅担任中国的外交部长
我们先来看新闻
然后我解读一下这其中最重要的两个点是什么
在台湾2024总统大选进入最后倒计时阶段之际，被认为有可能成为中国新外长的中共中央对外联络部部长刘建超率团访问美国。刘建超星期二（2024年1月9日）在一场研讨会上喊话华盛顿不要在台湾问题上越过“红线”。在此之前，美国一家著名的政治风险咨询公司星期一说，2024年的台湾总统大选或破坏美中两国领导人去年11月为两国关系带来的短暂稳定。
新外长人选？为管控台湾大选后的美中关系而来？
刘建超星期二在总部位于纽约的美国外交关系协会(Council on Foreign Relations)出席一场纪念美中建立外交关系45周年的公开活动上说，台湾问题是中国核心利益中的核心，是一条“不得越过的红线”。中联部是中国共产党负责党际外交的部门，刘建超也是中共主管外交的中央外事工作委员会办公室副主任。
刘建超说：“美中两国已经长期接触，双方都非常清楚彼此的核心利益和不可逾越的红线，对中国来说，台湾问题是核心利益的核心，是不可越过的红线。”他还说，中方认真对待美方不支持台湾独立的声明，希望“美方履行这一承诺”。
分析人士认为，刘建超虽然是前资深外交官，但他以中联部部长的身份访美并不寻常。华盛顿资深美中关系专家、德国马歇尔基金会印太项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示，有传言称刘建超可能会出任中国外交部长。日本《日经亚洲》(Nikkei Asia)星期二也在一篇文章里说，刘建超是下一任中国外长最有力的竞争者。
刘建超以中联部部长的身份职务，是不应该来美国的，除非跟美国共和民主两党进行党际交流，但这是不可能的，因此刘建超的任务是来和美国谈台湾大选后的管控问题。
民进党总统候选人、现任台湾副总统赖清德普遍被各方看好，被认为是赢得1月13日总统大选的最热门人选。他星期二表示，如果当选，他将维持台海现状，以实力求和平，并在平等和有尊严的前提下对与北京接触持开放态度。但北京指责赖清德是“台独”分裂分子，并警告说任何推动台湾正式独立的企图都意味着冲突。
在被问到如果赖清德胜选，北京会如何回应的提问时，中联部部长刘建超避重就轻地说，中国在台湾问题上的立场是明确的、坚定的和没有变化的。
中国加紧了对台湾的文攻武吓
连日来，中国加紧了对台湾的文攻武吓。台湾国防部星期二（2024年1月9日）向全台湾民众的手机数次发送国家级防空警报简讯，告诉民众中国当天发射的一枚卫星飞越了台湾南部上空，并吁请民众注意安全。警报最初的英文翻译是“导弹”飞越了台湾岛南部，但台湾官员很快纠正了这个错误。在过去的几个月里，中国官员将台湾即将到来的总统大选描述为和平与战争之间的选择，暗示如果民进党在执政八年后再次获胜将加剧冲突的风险。
台湾外交部长吴钊燮将中国此次卫星发射称为对台湾进行骚扰行动的一部分。台湾国防部就中国卫星发射发布手机警讯时，吴钊燮正在为几十位外国记者举行一场记者会。他表示，中国的卫星发射和此前的放飞气球一样，都是对台湾的骚扰。“所有这些策略都被定义为灰色地带行为，是在持续提醒台湾人民台湾与中国之间存在战争的危险，”吴钊燮在记者会上说。
在此之前，中国的空飘气球频繁进入台湾空域，甚至飞越上空。台湾国防部同在星期二指出，截至2024年1月9日上午6点之前的24小时内，再度侦获四个中国空飘气球逾越台湾海峡中线，其中两个气球飞越了台湾本岛上空。德国马歇尔基金会的葛来仪表示，北京此举显然是向台湾选民发出明确信号。“北京想警告台湾人民，投票给民进党将导致两岸关系更加紧张，”她说，“我认为这是北京干预台湾选举的方式之一。”
在经贸领域，中国商务部发言人2024年1月9日晚表示，正在研究采取进一步措施，暂停对来自台湾的农渔、机械、汽车零部件和纺织品等产品的关税减让。这是继2024年1月1日起，对部分来自台湾的石化产品采取此类措施之后的又一举措。中国商务部的声明说，自公告发布以来，民进党当局未采取任何有效措施，取消对大陆的贸易限制，反而搞政治操弄，企图栽赃甩锅、回避责任。
美中关系或因台湾大选受影响
全球最大政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)发布的《2024年世界头号风险》报告提到了美中之间可能发生的危机。报告说，今年将是美中关系的又一个动荡之年，一些刺激因素有可能破坏双方在2023年实现的关系解冻，而首先就是台湾的总统大选。如果赖清德赢得大选，北京将采取积极的军事和经济措施来阻止他的独立野心。而华盛顿的政策制定者将做出回应，对台湾表示支持。
华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)中国研究副主任麦艾维(Lily McElwee)在该中心主办的一场有关台湾大选的媒体吹风会上表示，华盛顿也意识到台湾大选可能会对美中关系造成的影响。她说：“我认为，基本上我们在关注赖清德胜选所带来的担忧，我们要为北京加强对台军事和经济压力做好准备。而对于侯友宜，这并不是官方的立场，我认为人们担心的是，对台湾未来的防卫能力和防务投资的影响，因为改善与中国的关系会被提上日程。”
麦艾维也表示，化解台湾大选所引发的美中危机需要密集的外交努力。“我认为拜登政府认识到了这一点：大量使用沟通渠道；不断重申和平、稳定和现状的重要性。”她说。
分析人士预测，如果民进党候选人赖清德赢得大选，中国将在选后的几个星期或者几个月内举行军事演习，可能与之前解放军在2022年8月时任美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)访台和2023年4月台湾总统蔡英文过境美国后所采取的行动类似。
北京最近接连借美中建交45周年的场合向华盛顿喊话，要求美方恪守“不支持台独”的承诺，亦凸显北京对国民党候选人在台湾总统大选中获胜已不报希望。
中国外长王毅1月9日在北京钓鱼台国宾馆就美中建交45周年发表谈话时提到拜登去年11月在旧金山与中国领导人习近平举行峰会时承诺，美国“不支持台独”。中国驻美大使谢锋1月9日在卡特中心纪念美中建交45周年的研讨会上发表视频演讲时要求美方将不支持“台独”的表态落到实处。他说：“美方应该以实际行动遵守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报规定，将美国领导人不支持‘台独’、不寻求把台湾问题作为遏制中国工具的表态落到实处，与中方一道维护台海和平稳定和中美关系大局。”
刘建超星期二还一反常态地表示，北京没有寻求重塑全球秩序，而是寻求加强与美国的合作，这与过去的鹰派言论大相径庭。
刘建超的这番表现也与欧亚集团总裁兼创办人伊恩·布雷默(Ian Bremmer)对中国在2024年的表现预测一致。 他此前表示，中国最近因国内经济面临严峻挑战而发起的魅力外交攻势(charm offensive)很可能会在2024年继续。但他相信，这只是一种战术性的退让，并不真正反映习近平改变了他的初衷。由于中国的经济困境不会很快得到改善，因此北京很可能会继续其在地缘政治上规避风险的策略。
刘建超接替王毅担任中国新的外交部长呢，
这件事情我认为有两个关注的点
第一点，要注意的是刘建超，可以说比较流利的英语
刘建超参加这个论坛是用英语发言的
其实秦刚虽然被抓了，但是秦刚和刘建超一样都会说英语
虽然算不上亲美派，但是起码是知美派
从习近平用外交部长这个思路上
他还是想和美国搞好关系的
奈何他找不人才，习近平找不到和江泽民一样的外交人才
习近平不是既要又要吗
既要跪舔美国，又要自己体面
他找不到一个能搞定华尔街，能搞定美国的外交人才
第二点，
刘建超是王岐山派系的
2015年9月，刘建超接替转任中共湖南省委常委、纪委书记的傅奎任中共中央反腐败协调小组国际追逃追赃工作办公室负责人、中纪委国际合作局局长、国家预防腐败局副局长（专职，副部长级）。
此时的中纪委书记是王岐山。
从外交口到中纪委任职，确实挺罕见的。
2017年4月，刘建超任浙江省纪委书记
此时的中纪委书记是王岐山。
2018年4月，刘建超返回中央外事工作委员会办公室任职，2018年9月官方媒体披露刘建超已担任外事工作委员会办公室副主任。
此时的中纪委书记是赵乐际，王岐山半退休了。
第二个话题是
新任央行行长潘功胜虽然是周小川温家宝的背景，但也是金融帮
也是有王岐山背景的
金融帮的三大派系，周小川，王岐山，刘鹤
习近平现在是打压温家宝和刘鹤，拉抬王岐山
财政部长蓝佛安是前任财政部长刘昆在广东的长期下属
给大家简单介绍一下金融帮的三大派系。
三大系统中，以周小川为首的「央行系」最为茁壮，普遍拥有留洋海外的经验，学术专业特强。
如前任央行行长易纲，从学者出身，之后长期在央行工作；
现任北京市市长殷勇，与周小川同为清华大学工业自动化专业和系统工程专业创办者郑维敏教授的学生，2016年12月时被拉拔成为央行副行长；
证监会副主席李超曾担任周小川的秘书；
央行副行长宣昌能自美国拿到博士学位后即被周小川延揽回国。「央行系」的官员具备高度的国际视野，仰赖专业智识以纵横全球金融。
王岐山的「建行系」则是以王岐山昔日领导中国建设银行的旧部，有
前任央行副行长范一飞、被抓了
中国建行董事长田国立、还在位
中国国家开发银行党委书记赵欢，还在位
等，
也有部分是中央纪委出身的干部，
如前任银保监会副主席周亮，此前为中纪委副秘书长。
此外，另有两名广东旧部蒋超良与刘昆，
蒋超良为金融系统出身，曾任为湖北省省委书记，一度是接掌央行的热门
后来因为武汉疫情被拿下，但是接任湖北省长王忠林是，王岐山派系的郭树清在山东一手提拔起来的。算是用王岐山派系的湖北省长，换了一个湖北省委书记。
刘昆则从全国人大「回锅」上任财政部部长，肩负管控地方政府债务风险的重责大任。现在刚刚退休，由蓝佛安接任财政部长。
蓝佛安和刘昆曾经在广东共事多年
等于蓝佛安还是有王岐山背景。
蒋超良与刘昆当年协助王岐山解决了1999年广信破产事件，收拾金融残局。
而蓝佛安挤掉的陆治原正是赵乐际派系。
2012年5月27日，时任陕西榆林市市长陆治原，绥德师范党委书记武军，向习近平他妈齐心校友征询绥德师范校史馆设计方案意见。
虽然有这层关系，但是陆治原还是没有如愿接任财政部长。
因为陆治原是江派最后的王赵乐际提拔的
当年可能没有拍好齐心的马屁吧
「中财办」的部分，除了习近平的亲信刘鹤曾为主掌金融的国务院副总理外，尚有一批在中央经济领导小组（2018年3月后改为委员会）长期工作的干部分发到金融系统之中，如
前央行副行长刘国强、
前证监会副主席方星海等。此外，也有一些「游离份子」，如曾任央行第一副行长陈雨露，学者出身，据传是习近平和王岐山都肯定的官员。
1998年6月，在体改委（国家经济体制改革委员会）正式宣告不再是国务院的组成序列之际，时任国家信息中心常务副主任的刘鹤牵头，找了在央行崭露角头的易纲及青壮派经济学者樊纲，三人共同发起了「中国经济50人论坛」。
论坛除了集结大量的退休干部和学者，如宋晓梧、曹远征、石小敏、李剑阁、张维迎、楼继伟、周小川等老同志们以外，也包含着易纲、郭树清、韩俊（农业农村部副部长）、肖捷（国务院秘书长）、马建堂（国家行政学院常务副院长）、韩文秀（中财办副主任）、谢伏瞻（中国社科院院长）等一票现职官员。
湖北省长王忠林
财政部长蓝佛安
的共同特点就是都是王岐山的下属的下属
王忠林是王岐山的下属郭树清提拔的
蓝佛安是刘昆的长期下属。
第三个话题就是一切的时间节点就是习近平访问旧金山
包括中国干涉台湾大选，中国财政部长的任命，新外交部长刘建超的任命
都是在习近平访问旧金山之后
原来是习近平访问旧金山失败，被拜登骂了，痛定思痛，重新启用了王岐山
王岐山20大站队习近平，现在重归于好了
习近平想要靠王岐山来重新搞定华尔街。
何立峰也靠边站了
大家还记得，习近平访问旧金山之前
除了王毅，何立峰也访问美国了
何立峰没有替习近平搞定美国，习近平很生气
习近平觉得李强何立峰都是废物
搞不定美国，只能让王岐山出山
刘鹤贸易战不是也没搞定美国，还和江派的赵乐际走得太近
刘鹤的儿子刘天然和江派在一起做生意
刘鹤的妹夫，就是上海市长，也和江派掺和在一起
温家宝和赵乐际都是习近平打击的对象
李强何立峰呢，虽然忠诚于习近平
但是能力太差，烂泥扶不上墙。
最后权衡能力和忠诚呢，
你们的总书记，重新启动了老基友王岐山
中国经济都差成这样了，习近平去旧金山也是灰头土脸
丢了面子，习近平要找李强，刘鹤，何立峰，王毅给他背锅。
等于最近一周的传闻
虽然可能都是假消息，可能情节，细节有点夸张，但事儿都是真事，都是真有这回事儿
为什么这么说呢？
李强辞职可能是假的，有点夸张，但是习近平对李强何立峰不满是真的
刘鹤被抓，被习近平打可能是假的，有点夸张，但是习近平对刘鹤不满，对刘鹤和赵乐际走得很近不满是真的
耿爽弃暗投明，投靠美国可能是假的，但是耿爽竞争中国外交部长失败，刘建超升任中国外交部长是真的。
既然习近平重新启用了王岐山派系的人马
试图和美国修补关系
那么自然对于民进党连任中华民国台湾总统
的既成事实，已经接受了
习近平不敢冲击美国现有的国际秩序。
大家想想，柯文哲2亿美元的事情，是不是在习近平访问美国旧金山之后
习近平怎么那么抠门啊，才出2亿美元
为什么不出20亿美元。
好的，
今天的内容就是这样
谢谢大家
英文翻译
Pan Gongsheng, Lan Fo’an, Zhou Liang, Liu Jianchao: Wang Qishan regains control of China’s financial and diplomatic powers. Xi Jinping has accepted the reality that the DPP will be re-elected. Li Qiang and He Lifeng stood aside while Wen Jiabao and Liu He were chased and beaten by Xi Jinping
Hello everyone,
Today I will talk to you about 3 topics
The first topic is
Wang Qishan’s direct descendant Liu Jianchao will succeed Wang Yi as China’s Foreign Minister
The second topic is
Although the new central bank governor Pan Gongsheng comes from the background of Zhou Xiaochuan and Wen Jiabao, he is also a financial helper.
He also has Wang Qishan’s background
The three major factions of the financial gang, Zhou Xiaochuan, Wang Qishan, and Liu He
Xi Jinping is now suppressing Wen Jiabao and Liu He and promoting Wang Qishan
Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is former Finance Minister Liu Kun’s long-term subordinate in Guangdong.
Liu Kun is from Wang Qishan, which is equivalent to Lan Foan being from Wang Qishan.
Wang Qishan’s secretary Zhou Liang is the deputy director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision.
Now Wang Qishan’s subordinate at the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, Liu Jianchao, will take over as China’s foreign minister.
Why does this happen
The third topic is that the timing of everything is Xi Jinping’s visit to San Francisco
Including China’s interference in Taiwan’s election, the appointment of China’s Finance Minister, and the appointment of new Foreign Minister Liu Jianchao
All after Xi Jinping’s visit to San Francisco
The first topic is
Wang Qishan’s direct descendant Liu Jianchao will succeed Wang Yi as China’s Foreign Minister
Let’s look at the news first
Then let me explain what the two most important points are.
As Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election enters the final countdown, Liu Jianchao, director of the International Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, who is considered likely to become China’s new foreign minister, leads a delegation to visit the United States. Liu Jianchao shouted at a seminar on Tuesday (January 9, 2024) that Washington should not cross the “red line” on the Taiwan issue. Prior to this, a well-known U.S. political risk consulting firm said on Monday that Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024 may undermine the short-term stability that the leaders of the United States and China brought to relations between the two countries in November last year.
Candidate for new foreign minister? Are you here to control U.S.-China relations after the Taiwan election?
Speaking at a public event commemorating the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday, Liu Jianchao said that the Taiwan issue is at the core of China’s core interests and is a “barrier that must not be crossed.” red line”. The International Department of the CPC Central Committee is the department responsible for inter-party diplomacy of the Communist Party of China. Liu Jianchao is also the deputy director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, which is in charge of diplomacy.
Liu Jianchao said: “The United States and China have been in contact for a long time, and both sides are very clear about each other’s core interests and uncrossable red lines. For China, the Taiwan issue is the core of core interests and a red line that cannot be crossed.” He also said, China takes seriously the U.S. statement that it does not support Taiwan’s independence and hopes that “the U.S. will honor this commitment.”
Analysts believe that although Liu Jianchao is a former senior diplomat, his visit to the United States as head of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is unusual. Bonnie Glaser, a senior Washington-based expert on U.S.-China relations and director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, said there are rumors that Liu Jianchao may become China’s foreign minister. Japan’s Nikkei Asia also said in an article on Tuesday that Liu Jianchao is the most powerful contender to be the next Chinese foreign minister.
As the head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, Liu Jianchao should not come to the United States unless he has inter-party exchanges with the Republican and Democratic parties in the United States. But this is impossible. Therefore, Liu Jianchao’s task is to talk to the United States about post-election control in Taiwan. question.
Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate and current Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te is generally favored by all parties and is considered the favorite to win the January 13 presidential election. He said on Tuesday that if elected, he would maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, seek peace through strength, and be open to contact with Beijing on the premise of equality and dignity. But Beijing accuses Lai of being a “Taiwan independence” separatist and warns that any attempt to push for Taiwan’s formal independence would mean conflict.
When asked how Beijing would respond if Lai Ching-te wins the election, Liu Jianchao, head of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, said that China’s position on the Taiwan issue is clear, firm and unchanged.
China steps up civil and military attacks on Taiwan
In recent days, China has stepped up its civil and military attacks on Taiwan. On Tuesday (January 9, 2024), Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense sent several national-level air defense alert text messages to the mobile phones of all Taiwanese people, telling the public that a satellite launched by China that day flew over southern Taiwan, and called on the public to pay attention to safety. The initial English translation of the alert said “missiles” flew over the southern part of the island, but Taiwanese officials quickly corrected the error. Over the past few months, Chinese officials have described Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election as a choice between peace and war, suggesting the risks of conflict would escalate if the Democratic Progressive Party wins again after eight years in power.
Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu called China’s satellite launch part of a campaign of harassment against Taiwan. When Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense issued a mobile phone warning about China’s satellite launch, Joseph Wu was holding a press conference for dozens of foreign reporters. He said that China’s satellite launches, like previous balloon releases, are harassment to Taiwan. “All these tactics are defined as gray zone behavior and are a continuing reminder to the Taiwanese people of the danger of war between Taiwan and China,” Joseph Wu told a press conference.
Prior to this, China’s air balloons frequently entered Taiwan’s airspace and even flew over it. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense also pointed out on Tuesday that in the 24 hours before 6 a.m. on January 9, 2024, four Chinese airborne balloons were again detected crossing the central line of the Taiwan Strait, and two of the balloons flew over Taiwan’s main island. Glaser of the German Marshall Fund said Beijing’s move was clearly a clear signal to Taiwanese voters. “Beijing wants to warn the people of Taiwan that voting for the DPP will lead to more tense cross-strait relations,” she said. “I think this is one of the ways Beijing interferes in Taiwan’s elections.”
In the field of economy and trade, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce of China stated on the evening of January 9, 2024 that further measures are being studied to suspend tariff concessions for products such as agriculture, fishery, machinery, auto parts, and textiles from Taiwan. This is another step after taking such measures on some petrochemical products from Taiwan starting from January 1, 2024. A statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that since the announcement, the DPP authorities have not taken any effective measures to lift trade restrictions on the mainland. Instead, they have engaged in political manipulation in an attempt to frame the situation and avoid responsibility.
U.S.-China relations may be affected by Taiwan election
The “World’s Top Risks in 2024” report released by Eurasia Group, the world’s largest political risk consulting firm, mentioned the possible crisis between the United States and China. The report said that this year will be another turbulent year for U.S.-China relations. Some stimulating factors may undermine the thaw of relations between the two sides in 2023, and the first is Taiwan’s presidential election. If Lai wins the election, Beijing will take aggressive military and economic measures to thwart his independence ambitions. And policymakers in Washington will respond by expressing support for Taiwan.
Lily McElwee, deputy director of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, said at a media briefing on the Taiwan election hosted by the center that Washington is also aware that the Taiwan election may have an impact on U.S.-China relations. the impact caused. She said: “I think basically we are paying attention to the concerns caused by Lai Ching-te’s victory, and we need to be prepared for Beijing to increase military and economic pressure on Taiwan. As for Hou Youyi, this is not the official position, and I think people The concern is the impact on Taiwan’s future defense capabilities and defense investments, as improving relations with China will be put on the agenda.”
McAvoy also said that resolving the U.S.-China crisis triggered by the Taiwan election requires intensive diplomatic efforts. “I think the Biden administration recognizes this: heavy use of communication channels; constant reaffirmation of the importance of peace, stability and the status quo,” she said.
Analysts predict that if Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde wins the election, China will hold military exercises in the weeks or months after the election, which may be similar to the PLA’s previous military exercise in August 2022. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is similar to the actions taken by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen after she transited through the United States in April 2023.
Beijing has recently taken advantage of the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China to send messages to Washington, demanding that the United States abide by its commitment to “not support Taiwan independence.” This also highlights that Beijing has no hope that the KMT candidate will win Taiwan’s presidential election.
When Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a speech at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on January 9 on the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, he mentioned that Biden promised at the summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in San Francisco last November that the United States “will not support Taiwan independence.” On January 9, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng delivered a video speech at a Carter Center seminar commemorating the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, asking the United States to implement its statement that it does not support “Taiwan independence.” He said: “The United States should take concrete actions to abide by the one-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-US joint communiqués, implement the US leader’s statement that he does not support ‘Taiwan independence’ and does not seek to use the Taiwan issue as a tool to contain China, and work with China to Maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the overall interests of China-U.S. relations.”
Liu Jianchao also uncharacteristically said on Tuesday that Beijing was not seeking to reshape the global order but rather seek to strengthen cooperation with the United States, a sharp departure from past hawkish comments.
Liu Jianchao’s performance is also consistent with the prediction of China’s performance in 2024 by Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group. He previously said that China’s recent charm offensive (charm offensive) launched due to severe challenges faced by the domestic economy is likely to continue in 2024. But he believes that this is just a tactical concession and does not really reflect Xi Jinping’s change of his original intention. Since China’s economic woes are not expected to improve anytime soon, Beijing is likely to continue its geopolitical risk-aversion strategy.
Liu Jianchao succeeds Wang Yi as China’s new foreign minister.
I think there are two points of concern in this matter.
The first point to note is that Liu Jianchao can speak relatively fluent English.
Liu Jianchao participated in this forum and spoke in English.
In fact, although Qin Gang was arrested, Qin Gang and Liu Jianchao can both speak English.
Although they are not pro-American, they are at least those who know beauty.
From the perspective of Xi Jinping’s appointment of foreign minister
He still wants to have good relations with the United States.
But he can’t find talents. Xi Jinping can’t find the same diplomatic talents as Jiang Zemin.
Doesn’t Xi Jinping want both?
We must kneel down and lick the United States, but we must also respect ourselves
He can’t find a diplomatic talent who can handle Wall Street and the United States.
Second point,
Liu Jianchao is from Wang Qishan’s faction
In September 2015, Liu Jianchao succeeded Fu Kui, who was transferred to the Standing Committee of the Hunan Provincial Committee and Secretary of the Commission for Discipline Inspection, as the head of the International Fugitive and Asset Recovery Office of the Central Anti-Corruption Coordination Group of the CPC Central Committee, the Director of the International Cooperation Bureau of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and the Deputy Director of the National Corruption Prevention Bureau (full-time, Deputy Minister level).
The secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection at this time is Wang Qishan.
It is indeed quite rare to go from being a diplomat to serving in the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
In April 2017, Liu Jianchao was appointed Secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection
The secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection at this time is Wang Qishan.
In April 2018, Liu Jianchao returned to serve in the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission. In September 2018, official media disclosed that Liu Jianchao had served as deputy director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission.
At this time, the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection was Zhao Leji, and Wang Qishan was semi-retired.
The second topic is
Although the new central bank governor Pan Gongsheng comes from the background of Zhou Xiaochuan and Wen Jiabao, he is also a financial helper.
He also has Wang Qishan’s background
The three major factions of the financial gang, Zhou Xiaochuan, Wang Qishan, and Liu He
Xi Jinping is now suppressing Wen Jiabao and Liu He and promoting Wang Qishan
Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is former Finance Minister Liu Kun’s long-term subordinate in Guangdong.
Let me briefly introduce the three major factions of the Financial Gang.
Among the three major systems, the “central bank system” headed by Zhou Xiaochuan is the strongest, generally having experience studying abroad and having strong academic expertise.
For example, Yi Gang, the former governor of the Central Bank, was a scholar and later worked in the Central Bank for a long time;
Yin Yong, the current mayor of Beijing, and Zhou Xiaochuan were students of Professor Zheng Weimin, the founder of the industrial automation and systems engineering majors at Tsinghua University. In December 2016, he was promoted to become the deputy governor of the central bank;
Li Chao, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, once served as Zhou Xiaochuan’s secretary;
Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the central bank, was recruited by Zhou Xiaochuan to return to China after receiving his doctorate from the United States. Officials in the “central bank department” have a high degree of international vision and rely on professional knowledge to navigate global finance.
Wang Qishan’s “CCB Department” is based on the old department of China Construction Bank that Wang Qishan used to lead.
Fan Yifei, former deputy governor of the central bank, was arrested
Tian Guoli, Chairman of China Construction Bank, is still in office
Zhao Huan, Secretary of the Party Committee of China Development Bank, is still in office
wait,
There are also some cadres who came from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
For example, Zhou Liang, the former vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was previously the deputy secretary-general of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
In addition, there are two other former Guangdong soldiers, Jiang Chaoliang and Liu Kun.
Jiang Chaoliang was born in the financial system and was once the secretary of the Hubei Provincial Party Committee. He was once the favorite to take over the central bank.
Later, he was taken down due to the Wuhan epidemic, but Wang Zhonglin, who took over as Hubei Governor, was single-handedly promoted by Guo Shuqing of the Wang Qishan faction in Shandong. It can be regarded as replacing the Hubei Provincial Governor with the Hubei Provincial Party Committee Secretary.
Liu Kun was re-elected from the National People’s Congress as Minister of Finance, shouldering the important responsibility of managing and controlling local government debt risks. Now that he has just retired, Lam Foan has taken over as Finance Minister.
Lan Fo’an and Liu Kun worked together in Guangdong for many years
It means that Lan Fo’an still has Wang Qishan’s background.
Jiang Chaoliang and Liu Kun assisted Wang Qishan in resolving the bankruptcy of Guangxin in 1999 and cleaning up the financial mess.
And Lu Zhiyuan, whom Lan Fo’an squeezed out, was from Zhao Leji’s faction.
On May 27, 2012, Lu Zhiyuan, then mayor of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province, and Wu Jun, secretary of the Party Committee of Suide Normal University, asked Xi Jinping Qixin alumni for their opinions on the design plan of the Suide Normal School History Museum.
Despite this relationship, Lu Zhiyuan still did not take over as Minister of Finance as he wished.
Because Lu Zhi was originally promoted by Zhao Leji, the last king of the Jiang faction.
Maybe I didn’t flatter Qi Xin well back then.
In the “Office of Central Economic Affairs”, in addition to Xi Jinping’s confidant Liu He, who was once the Vice Premier of the State Council in charge of finance, there are also a group of cadres who have worked long-term in the Central Economic Leading Group (renamed the Committee after March 2018) and are distributed to the financial system. ,like
Liu Guoqiang, former deputy governor of the central bank,
Fang Xinghai, former vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, etc. In addition, there are also some “dissociated elements”, such as Chen Yulu, the former first deputy governor of the Central Bank, who is a scholar and is said to be an official approved by both Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan.
In June 1998, when the Economic Restructuring Commission (National Economic Structural Reform Commission) officially announced that it would no longer be part of the State Council, Liu He, then executive deputy director of the National Information Center, took the lead and found someone who had emerged from the central bank. Yi Gang and young economist Fan Gang jointly launched the “China Economic 50 Forum”.
In addition to gathering a large number of retired cadres and scholars, such as Song Xiaowu, Cao Yuanzheng, Shi Xiaomin, Li Jiange, Zhang Weiying, Lou Jiwei, Zhou Xiaochuan and other veteran comrades, the forum also included Yi Gang, Guo Shuqing, Han Jun (Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs) Minister), Xiao Jie (Secretary-General of the State Council), Ma Jiantang (Executive Vice President of the National Academy of Administration), Han Wenxiu (Deputy Director of the China Finance Office), Xie Fuzhan (
President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) and other current officials.
Hubei Governor Wang Zhonglin
Finance Minister Lam Phu An
The common feature is that they are all subordinates of Wang Qishan’s subordinates
Wang Zhonglin was promoted by Guo Shuqing, Wang Qishan’s subordinate.
Lan Fo’an is Liu Kun’s long-term subordinate.
The third topic is that the timing of everything is Xi Jinping’s visit to San Francisco
Including China’s interference in Taiwan’s election, the appointment of China’s Finance Minister, and the appointment of new Foreign Minister Liu Jianchao
All after Xi Jinping’s visit to San Francisco
It turned out that Xi Jinping failed to visit San Francisco and was scolded by Biden. He learned from the experience and re-enabled Wang Qishan.
Wang Qishan’s 20 major supporters are Xi Jinping, and now they are back on good terms
Xi Jinping wants to rely on Wang Qishan to regain control of Wall Street.
He Lifeng also stood aside.
Everyone still remembers that before Xi Jinping visited San Francisco
In addition to Wang Yi, He Lifeng also visited the United States
He Lifeng failed to fix the United States for Xi Jinping, and Xi Jinping was very angry
Xi Jinping thinks Li Qiang and He Lifeng are all trash
If we can’t handle the United States, we can only let Wang Qishan come out.
Liu He’s trade war didn’t defeat the United States, and he got too close to Jiang’s Zhao Leji.
Liu He’s son Liu Tianran is doing business with Jiang Faction
Liu He’s brother-in-law, the mayor of Shanghai, is also involved with the Jiang faction.
Both Wen Jiabao and Zhao Leji are targeted by Xi Jinping
Where is Li Qiang and He Lifeng? Although he is loyal to Xi Jinping
But the ability is too poor, and the mud cannot hold up the wall.
In the end, we weigh ability and loyalty.
Your general secretary has reactivated his old gay friend Wang Qishan
China’s economy is in such bad shape, even when Xi Jinping went to San Francisco he was disgraced
After losing face, Xi Jinping turned to Li Qiang, Liu He, and He Lifeng, and Wang Yi took the blame for him.
Equivalent to the rumors of the past week
Although it may all be fake news, and the plot and details may be a bit exaggerated, they are all true and they are all true.
Why do you say that?
Li Qiang’s resignation may be fake and a bit exaggerated, but Xi Jinping’s dissatisfaction with Li Qiang and He Lifeng is true.
It may be fake and a bit exaggerated that Liu He was arrested and beaten by Xi Jinping, but it is true that Xi Jinping is dissatisfied with Liu He and is dissatisfied with the close relationship between Liu He and Zhao Leji.
It may be false that Geng Shuang abandoned the dark side and defected to the United States, but it is true that Geng Shuang failed in the competition for China’s Foreign Minister and Liu Jianchao was promoted to China’s Foreign Minister.
Now that Xi Jinping has reactivated the people of Wang Qishan’s faction,
Trying to repair relations with the United States
So naturally, for the Democratic Progressive Party to be re-elected as the President of Taiwan, the Republic of China
has been accepted as a fait accompli
Xi Jinping dare not impact the existing international order of the United States.
Think about it, did Ke Wenzhe’s $200 million incident happen after Xi Jinping visited San Francisco, USA?
Why is Xi Jinping so stingy, he only offered 200 million US dollars?
Why not $2 billion.
OK,
That’s it for today
thank you all