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最新21大常委预测名单。总书记三大候选人，李强，袁家军，胡春华。李干杰是薄熙来余党，有可能被抓。
大家好，讨论一下最新的21大常委名单，分析一下靠谱还是不靠谱。网友发给我的名单。2024年10月27日，上海。一名真老外走在马路上，被怀疑是coser，遭到警察盘问。现在推特有两大热点：1、安乐死2、上海万圣节警察滥抓滥捕。炒作安乐死，感觉像是在替上海警察转移视线。有这样的嫌疑，掩护上海警察，洗地
范冰冰在上海街头被警察带走。王岐山是一个背锅侠，马建就在中国被抓了。国贸1808没有王岐山，只有习近平。国贸1808没有习近平的话，郭文贵老婆孩子怎么从中国放出来的？当时王岐山已经从中纪委退休了，他说话好使吗？郭文贵到底有没有国贸1808，别人不知道。马建就在中国习近平能不知道吗？
张又侠访问越南
2024年10月24日至26日，中国中央军委副主席张又侠应邀率团访问越南，越共中央总书记苏林、国家主席梁强、政府总理范明政分别会见。越南国家是四驾马车，又叫做四大支柱。总书记，国家主席，总理，还有一个是国会主席。现在是四驾马车中的三驾马车，三大支柱中的三大支柱，都会见了张又侠。因为国会主席，军委副主席实在是不搭嘎。就是业务不对口。
最关键的就是，张又侠，闭口不提习近平了，或者说不再吹捧习近平了。越南官方越通社发的稿子里面，张又侠压根就没有提过习近平。到了中国官方的稿子里面。他是这么写的，张又侠转达了习近平总书记对苏林的亲切问候和良好祝愿。新华社的稿子这些的话，你也不能说他是完全造假。但是明显是转移视线啊。就和习近平去福建明明是去拜关帝庙。他给写成参观文物保护单位。不是完全造假，也是在扭曲事实，模糊焦点啊。
不管怎么说，张又侠没有强调习近平，没有着重的提习近平，没有吹捧习近平这是一个不争的事实。不光是是枪杆子，刀把子王小洪也转向了。外界盛传中共三中全会以后，习近平已经军权旁落，军委第一副主席张又侠主掌军队事务。种种迹象也在印证着相关传闻似乎并非空穴来风。
另一件值得注意的事件是，习近平10月17日视察安徽火箭军部队六十一基地611旅时，张又侠陪同。但财新网的报导中，罕见将习近平和张又侠的名字并列放在标题，被指释放敏感信号。按照惯例，中共官媒报导有关习近平的新闻时，以往只把习近平的名字放在标题，陪同官员的名字则放在内文。财新网的新闻已经被删掉了，但还是被截图了。
回复一下这名网友啊。有人说最近习近平暗算了张又侠，博主怎么看。我的回复就是这是节目效果。张又侠不是老板。要么习近平没下去，要么就是下去了。不存在中间的状态。更不可能存在今天下去了，明天又上来了。后天又下去了。这样反反复复的状态啊。纯粹都是节目效果啊。中国陆军政委秦树桐，副司令黎火辉和邓志平，这都是一锅端啊。怎么可能今天抓这个，明天抓那个。过家家呢。也可能是不想让大家看出来是一锅端的，所以今天放消息这个抓了，明天放消息那个抓了。
刀把子王小洪也转向了
不仅仅是枪杆子，刀把子王小洪也是一样。王小洪会见意大利内政部长皮安特多西，王小洪压根就没有提习近平啊。但是王小洪在新疆调研的时候，新闻报道是有个习近平的帽子在头上。就是王小洪提到习近平这句话，就是一开头的套话，叫帽子。到底是王小洪自己说的，还是宣传报道的时候。中宣部给王小洪统一加上，都不好说啊。退一步讲，就算这是王小洪自己说的，那调门也是大大降低了。
解释成，人话就是习近平就算还是暂时是总书记，但是也没有办法定于一尊了。就是你说习近平下去了吧，他没下去。说他大权独揽吧，那已经不可能了。迹象都已经太明显了。就是这么一个不上不下的状态。就是还在维稳啊。习近平就算下去了，那不是共产党还在吗。就是害怕中国人知道习近平下去了。就说，去你的，共产党跟着一起下台就可以了。就是共产党害怕这种情况出现。
现在就是在运作权力更替，在一个一个换非习近平派系的官员上来。我统计到51个正部级副部级。国企老总都没统计。实际上，三中全会之后，应该已经换了60个。换到200个，应该就是彻底摊牌的时候了，没几个月了。现在还没有进程过半，刚刚进行到三分之一。差不多就是明年二会的时候吧。
美国和越南首先掌握中国内部发生变化的情报
我给大家缕一缕中国之外的国家，哪些陆续知道了，中国内部发生变化。首先，应该是美国和越南。越南总书记苏林2024年8月15日访华。然后就是美国沙利文访华，2024年8月27日。大家看这个时间线，完全吻合。所以大家都推测越南是替美国去中国投石问路。越南访问之后，两个礼拜，美国访华。中国解禁日本海鲜进口，9月20号。假设日本和中国谈判需要一个月。那是不是就是8月20号。美国沙利文访华，如果安排是一个礼拜。那不还是8月20号吗
越南告诉美国，美国告诉日本。因为日本和中国进行谈判，进口海鲜，这个事情稍微复杂一些，需要的时间比较长。但是，沙利文访华和，日本与中国谈判解禁海鲜进口。都是8月20号，开始启动。访华稍微简单一些，一个礼拜就安排好了行程。谈判海鲜进口，稍微复杂一些。谈了一个月。开始的时间点都是一个时间点啊。
加拿大早就想收拾中国了
再给大家看一个，加拿大，对中国电动汽车征收100%巨额关税。首先加拿大，早就想收拾中国了，对中国憋了一肚子火。习远平这孙子抓两个加拿大人，两个迈克尔。但是，加拿大也没找到好的时机。8月26日加拿大宣布对中国电动车征收100%的巨额关税。10月1日实施，10月19日又推出了豁免规则。加拿大对中国电动车征收关税，不就是和美国沙利文访华同一天啊。8月26日和8月27日，其实就是一天，可能是因为时差。
印度中国边境谈判9月初就开始了
从美国把情报分享给加拿大。加拿大拟定对中国征收关税的政策，需要一个礼拜吧。所以加拿大也是美国8月20号和加拿大分享的情报。印度这边也是一样的。对峙结束：印度和中国开始从喜马拉雅最后据点撤军。据一位知情的印度政府消息人士称，印度和中国已开始从喜马拉雅山争议边境的最后两个面对面阵地撤军，这预示着两国四年军事对峙的结束。 中国和印度撤军发生在10月25日。实际上，谈判早就开始了。
9月初，印度外交部长苏杰生在德国柏林发表演讲 “印度不会对中国企业关闭大门，取决于(投资的)领域和条件”。印度外长发表演讲的时间，当时印度和中国已经开始谈判了。9月11日，印度外长发表的演讲。谈判往前推10天，推一个礼拜不就是9月1号吗。加拿大是五眼联盟，是美国的核心盟友，日本也是美国的核心盟友。8月20日，美国已经和日本和加拿大分享了，关于中国的情报。
中国要回到韬光养晦以经济建设为中心的邓小平路线
印度和美国关系，没有加拿大日本和美国的关系那么近，但是很明显。10天之后，从8月20号之后开始算，9月1号左右，印度也掌握了这个情报。中国就要和印度缓和关系，搞经济吗。以经济建设为中心，韬光养晦，都是邓小平的路线啊。现在，中国就是要回到邓小平的路线啊。中国就是这么决策的，实际的效果如何，那单说啊。
我们看一下这名网友发给我的21大名单，首先唯一值得表扬的是，这里面没有习近平啊。说明，越来越多的人看出来，无论是四中全会，还是21大。习近平铁定是要下去的。不过既然，习近平要下去了，那么21大，不可能常委还有4个人是习近平的人啊。还不如直接预测习近平继续担任21大总书记呢。这个名单只可能会在习近平继续担任总书记，才会有这样的名单啊。
习近平不是主动下台的
习近平为什么下去呢，难道是习近平主动下去吗？三中全会之后，副部级和正部级，一个习近平的人都不然提拔，难道还能提拔政治局常委，这不是痴心妄想吗？对于习近平派系，有可能让丁薛祥直接退休。一个习近平派系的都没有。如果丁薛祥能连任政治局常委，那么也不可能是总书记，总理，中纪委书记这三个职位。连人大委员长都费劲。丁薛祥如果连任，大概率是政协主席。
李干杰是薄熙来余党
这个名单里面，李干杰还中纪委书记呢，想什么呢。李干杰都要被抓了。李干杰是薄熙来的人，提拔谁也不能提拔李干杰。不抓李干杰就不错了。抓了也是应该的。
薄熙来是如假包换的习派
薄熙来是如假包换的习派。1995年4月，湖南省委书记王茂林提拔习仲勋秘书曹志斌任湖南省委副秘书长。薄熙来的老爸薄一波1991年左右出了一本书，《七十年的回顾与思考》，王茂林给了30万，山西省给了30万。
李干杰也是薄熙来的人。现在习近平提拔薄熙来派系李干杰担任中组部长。就证明薄熙来和习近平是一个派系的。1998年1月至1999年1月，34岁的李干杰在湖南省岳阳市平江县挂职，担任中共岳阳市平江县委副书记。当时的岳阳市长是周昌贡 (1997年12月 – 2000年1月)。周昌贡就是掏了30万给薄一波出书的王茂林提拔的。
李干杰在薄熙来他爸薄一波的马仔王茂林的手下周昌贡，下面挂职。不抓李干杰就不错，还想进常委。想什么呢。好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
The latest predicted list of the 21st Standing Committee. The three major candidates for the general secretary are Li Qiang, Yuan Jiajun, and Hu Chunhua. Li Ganjie is a remnant of Bo Xilai and may be arrested.
Hello everyone, let’s discuss the latest list of the 21st Standing Committee and analyze whether it is reliable or not. The list sent to me by netizens. October 27, 2024, Shanghai. A real foreigner was walking on the street and was suspected of being a cosplayer and was questioned by the police. There are two hot topics on Twitter now: 1. Euthanasia 2. Indiscriminate arrests by Shanghai Halloween police. Hype euthanasia feels like diverting attention for the Shanghai police. There is such a suspicion, covering up the Shanghai police, and washing the ground
Fan Bingbing was taken away by the police on the streets of Shanghai. Wang Qishan is a scapegoat, and Ma Jian was arrested in China. There is no Wang Qishan in Guomao 1808, only Xi Jinping. If there is no Xi Jinping in Guomao 1808, how did Guo Wengui’s wife and children get released from China? At that time, Wang Qishan had retired from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Did he have a say? Whether Guo Wengui has Guomao 1808 or not, others don’t know. Ma Jian is in China, how can Xi Jinping not know?
Zhang Youxia visits Vietnam
From October 24 to 26, 2024, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of China, was invited to lead a delegation to visit Vietnam. He met with General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam To Lin, President Luong Cuong, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. The Vietnamese country is a troika, also known as the four pillars. The general secretary, the president, the prime minister, and the chairman of the National Assembly. Now the three of the four troikas, the three of the three pillars, have met with Zhang Youxia. Because the chairman of the National Assembly and the vice chairman of the Military Commission are really not compatible. It’s just that the business is not right.
The most important thing is that Zhang Youxia stopped mentioning Xi Jinping, or stopped praising Xi Jinping. In the draft issued by the official Vietnam News Agency of Vietnam, Zhang Youxia did not mention Xi Jinping at all. In the official Chinese draft. He wrote that Zhang Youxia conveyed General Secretary Xi Jinping’s cordial greetings and good wishes to To Lin. You can’t say that the Xinhua News Agency’s article is completely fake. But it is obviously a diversion. Just like Xi Jinping went to Fujian to worship Guandi Temple. He wrote it as visiting a cultural relic protection unit. It is not completely fake, but it is also distorting the facts and blurring the focus.
In any case, it is an indisputable fact that Zhang Youxia did not emphasize Xi Jinping, did not focus on Xi Jinping, and did not flatter Xi Jinping. Not only the gun barrel, but also the knife handle Wang Xiaohong has turned. It is widely rumored that after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, Xi Jinping’s military power has been lost, and Zhang Youxia, the first vice chairman of the Military Commission, is in charge of military affairs. Various signs also confirm that the relevant rumors do not seem to be groundless.
Another noteworthy event is that when Xi Jinping inspected the 611th Brigade of the 61st Base of the Anhui Rocket Force on October 17, Zhang Youxia accompanied him. However, in the Caixin report, the names of Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia were rarely listed in the title, which was accused of sending sensitive signals. According to convention, when the CCP official media reports news about Xi Jinping, they only put Xi Jinping’s name in the title, and the names of the accompanying officials in the text. The news on Caixin.com has been deleted, but it was still screenshotted.
Reply to this netizen. Some people say that Xi Jinping has recently plotted against Zhang Youxia. What do you think? My reply is that this is a show effect. Zhang Youxia is not the boss. Either Xi Jinping did not go down, or he went down. There is no middle state. It is even more impossible to go down today and come back tomorrow. Go down again the day after tomorrow. This is a repetitive state. It is purely a show effect. Qin Shutong, the political commissar of the Chinese Army, Li Huohui, the deputy commander, and Deng Zhiping, all of them were arrested at the same time. How could they arrest this one today and that one tomorrow? It’s just playing house. It may also be that they don’t want everyone to see that it was all done at the same time, so today they arrested this one and tomorrow they arrested that one.
The knife-holder Wang Xiaohong has also turned
It’s not just the gun, the knife-holder Wang Xiaohong is the same. Wang Xiaohong met with Italian Interior Minister Piantedossi, and Wang Xiaohong did not mention Xi Jinping at all. But when Wang Xiaohong was conducting research in Xinjiang, the news reports had a hat on Xi Jinping. Wang Xiaohong’s mention of Xi Jinping is a cliché at the beginning, called a hat. It is hard to say whether it was Wang Xiaohong himself who said it, or when it was reported. The Central Propaganda Department added it to Wang Xiaohong. To put it another way, even if it was Wang Xiaohong himself who said it, the tone was greatly lowered.
To explain it in human terms, even if Xi Jinping is still the general secretary temporarily, there is no way to determine who is the only one. You say Xi Jinping has stepped down, but he has not stepped down. You say he has monopolized power, but that is impossible. The signs are too obvious. It is just such a state of neither going up nor down. It is still maintaining stability. Even if Xi Jinping steps down, the Communist Party is still there. They are afraid that the Chinese people will know that Xi Jinping has stepped down. They say, go away, the Communist Party can step down with you. The Communist Party is afraid of this situation.
Now we are operating the power transition, replacing officials who are not from Xi Jinping’s faction one by one. I counted 51 ministerial and vice-ministerial officials. I didn’t count the CEOs of state-owned enterprises. In fact, after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, 60 officials should have been replaced. When the number reaches 200, it should be time for a complete showdown, which will take a few months. Now the process is not even halfway through, just one-third of the way through. It will be around the time of the Second Plenary Session next year.
The United States and Vietnam first grasp the intelligence of changes in China
I will give you a glimpse of which countries outside China have gradually learned about changes in China. First, it should be the United States and Vietnam. Vietnamese General Secretary Tou Lin will visit China on August 15, 2024. Then the American Sullivan will visit China on August 27, 2024. Everyone looks at this timeline, which is completely consistent. So everyone speculates that Vietnam is testing the waters for the United States to go to China. Two weeks after Vietnam’s visit, the United States will visit China. China will lift the ban on Japanese seafood imports on September 20. Assuming that Japan and China need a month to negotiate. Then it will be August 20. If the visit of Sullivan of the United States to China is arranged in a week, then it is still August 20th, right?
Vietnam told the United States, and the United States told Japan. Because Japan and China are negotiating to import seafood, this matter is a little complicated and takes a long time. However, Sullivan’s visit to China and Japan’s negotiation with China to lift the ban on seafood imports both started on August 20th. The visit to China was a little simpler, and the itinerary was arranged in a week. The negotiation of seafood imports was a little more complicated. It took a month. The starting time was the same time.
Canada has long wanted to deal with China
Let me show you another one. Canada has imposed a huge 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. First of all, Canada has long wanted to deal with China and is very angry with China. Xi Yuanping, this grandson, arrested two Canadians, two Michaels. However, Canada did not find a good time. On August 26, Canada announced that it would impose a huge 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. It was implemented on October 1, and the exemption rules were introduced on October 19. Canada imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles on the same day as Sullivan’s visit to China. August 26 and August 27 are actually one day, probably because of the time difference.
The India-China border negotiations began in early September
The intelligence was shared from the United States to Canada. It will take a week for Canada to formulate a policy of imposing tariffs on China. So Canada also shared intelligence with the United States on August 20. The same is true for India. The end of the standoff: India and China began to withdraw troops from the last Himalayan stronghold. According to an informed Indian government source, India and China have begun to withdraw troops from the last two face-to-face positions on the disputed border in the Himalayas, heralding the end of the four-year military standoff between the two countries. The withdrawal of Chinese and Indian troops took place on October 25. In fact, the negotiations had already begun.
In early September, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar gave a speech in Berlin, Germany, “India will not close its doors to Chinese companies, depending on the (investment) fields and conditions.” When the Indian Foreign Minister gave his speech, India and China had already started negotiations. On September 11, the Indian Foreign Minister gave his speech. If the negotiations are pushed forward 10 days, wouldn’t it be September 1 if they were pushed forward a week? Canada is a member of the Five Eyes Alliance and a core ally of the United States. Japan is also a core ally of the United States. On August 20, the United States had already shared intelligence about China with Japan and Canada.
China is going back to Deng Xiaoping’s line of keeping a low profile and focusing on economic construction
The relationship between India and the United States is not as close as that between Canada and Japan, but it is very obvious. Ten days later, starting from August 20, around September 1, India also got hold of this intelligence. China is going to ease relations with India and develop the economy? Focusing on economic construction and keeping a low profile are all Deng Xiaoping’s lines. Now, China is going back to Deng Xiaoping’s line. This is how China makes decisions. What is the actual effect? Let’s talk about it separately.
Let’s take a look at the list of the 21st National Congress sent to me by this netizen. First of all, the only thing worth praising is that there is no Xi Jinping in it. This shows that more and more people have seen that whether it is the Fourth Plenary Session or the 21st National Congress, Xi Jinping is definitely going to step down. However, since Xi Jinping is going to step down, it is impossible for there to be 4 people on the Standing Committee of the 21st National Congress who are Xi Jinping’s people. It would be better to predict directly that Xi Jinping will continue to serve as the general secretary of the 21st National Congress. This list may also be made when Xi Jinping continues to serve as the general secretary.
Xi Jinping did not step down on his own initiative
Why did Xi Jinping step down? Did Xi Jinping step down on his own initiative? After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, Xi Jinping did not promote anyone at the vice-ministerial and ministerial levels. Can he still promote a member of the Politburo Standing Committee? Isn’t this wishful thinking? For the Xi Jinping faction, it is possible that Ding Xuexiang will retire directly. There is no one from the Xi Jinping faction. If Ding Xuexiang can be re-elected as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, then it is impossible for him to be the general secretary, prime minister, and secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Even the chairman of the National People’s Congress is struggling. If Ding Xuexiang is re-elected, he is likely to be the chairman of the CPPCC.
Li Ganjie is a remnant of Bo Xilai
In this list, Li Ganjie is still the secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. What are you thinking? Li Ganjie is going to be arrested. Li Ganjie is Bo Xilai’s man. No one can promote Li Ganjie. It’s good not to arrest Li Ganjie. It’s right to arrest him.
Bo Xilai is a genuine Xi faction
Bo Xilai is a genuine Xi faction. In April 1995, Hunan Provincial Party Secretary Wang Maolin promoted Xi Zhongxun’s secretary Cao Zhibin to be the deputy secretary-general of the Hunan Provincial Party Committee. Bo Xilai’s father Bo Yibo published a book around 1991, “Review and Reflection of 70 Years”, to which Wang Maolin gave 300,000 yuan and Shanxi Province gave 300,000 yuan.
Li Ganjie is also Bo Xilai’s man. Now Xi Jinping promoted Li Ganjie, a member of Bo Xilai’s faction, to be the Minister of Organization. This proves that Bo Xilai and Xi Jinping are from the same faction. From January 1998 to January 1999, 34-year-old Li Ganjie served in Pingjiang County, Yueyang City, Hunan Province, as the deputy secretary of the Pingjiang County Party Committee of Yueyang City. The mayor of Yueyang at that time was Zhou Changgong (December 1997 – January 2000). Zhou Changgong was promoted by Wang Maolin, who paid 300,000 yuan to help Bo Yibo publish a book.
Li Ganjie is working under Zhou Changgong, a subordinate of Wang Maolin, Bo Xilai’s father Bo Yibo. It’s good that Li Ganjie is not arrested. He even wants to be a member of the Standing Committee. What are you thinking? Okay, thank you everyone.