政治局官宣:习近平能上能下,胡春华班底嘎玛泽登上位,胡春华会接总书记吗?

大家好,2024年10月28日,中共政治局开会,党媒简短的报导中有一句话称,“严格执行民主集中制,推进领导干部能上能下。”毫无疑问,这次政治局会议,最大的新闻就是能上能下,这句话。不管是支持习近平的大外宣,还是反对习近平反对共产党的立场。能够点出这句话,能够出说这句话,是这次政治局会议的关键内容。才是专业的媒体。

嘎玛泽登要接任西藏主席。昨天我说了,浙江省委书记王浩,人民日报社长于邵良,山西副省长林红玉,本来是江泽民安排给孙政才的接班班底。于绍良就是孙政才的大秘王辅捷提拔的。结果,接班班底上去了。孙政才去住秦城了。胡春华也是一样的,胡春华也是有接班班底的。我们看看嘎玛泽登和胡春华的关系。胡春华和孙政才不一样。

胡春华没在秦城里面,那么胡春华的班底嘎玛泽登上去了。胡春华能不能上去,接替习近平呢?

我们先看这位大咖关于中关村三小献忠事件的评论。中关村三小为什么牛?这么说吧。万柳书院为什么每平方36万?因为是中关村三小的学区房。金山葛总花了1.1亿买下三小的学区房。葛珂辞职都三年多了,还金山呢。只为了和部长,院士家的孙子做同学,理解了吧?国务院部委里面,冷门部长的条子都进不了三小,能在北京所有学校里通用的部委入学条子,只有4个。4个部委,不知道这位大咖说的是哪四个部委。首先能想得到的是发改委和财政部。

其实我本来就对龙骑兵的理论持怀疑态度,覆巢之下,焉有完卵。北京有什么特殊的,我就不明白。可能对北京真实的治安状况不了解吧。大外宣一直在洗脑中国安全,中国安全,很明显不是那么回事儿。

都是事情没有摊到自己头上,就假装没有发生。之前我听到过中国驻津巴布韦的外交官说,津巴布韦都那样了,上层社会还是歌舞升平,一切正常。津巴布韦的货币都贬值到什么程度了。但是,我们也没有住在津巴布韦。这个中国的外交官住在津巴布韦。但是,外交官说上层社会一切正常啊。

津巴布韦的大洪水还没有淹到上层社会。中国的大洪水还没有来了,张献忠已经到了中关村三小。等到中国的大洪水来的时候,津巴布韦可能就是小巫见大巫了。我们马上要见证这个大时代的到来了。

新华社关于政治局会议的报导,先说政治局肯定了巡视工作,还称中央机关、中管金融单位党的建设“得到加强,各项工作取得新成效”;同时也说“也存在一些问题”,并重复了通报中的一些套话,官话。不过,新华社的报导随后话锋一转,称政治局会议强调,“要加强领导班子建设,严格执行民主集中制,推进领导干部能上能下”。政治局讨论巡视报告,似乎意外加码,更像是在借题发挥。一次本来走过场的巡视,先被肯定,随后却被拿来说事。通报中没有公开多大问题,但政治局故意拉抬到“领导干部能上能下”的地步,显得比较突兀。或者说,事先拟定的政治局会议议程忽然发生了某种逆转。

谁提出了“推进领导干部能上能下”?新华社的报导称,习近平主持了政治局会议,但没有称习近平发表讲话,那么“领导干部能上能下”的意见是谁提出的呢?当下时局敏感,政治局会议的公开报导中出现如此牵动神经的词句,应该不寻常。无论谁提出了这样的意见,看来都得到了大多数人的赞同,并要求新华社对外公开报导。这就是政治局官宣了。

如果这样说的话,就是政治局会议的议程,现在已经不是习近平所能左右得了。因为新华社的报道还说了一句,会议还研究了其他事项。每次政治局会议都会说这一句套话。到底是什么其他事项呢。不用说就是提拔浙江省委书记王浩,西藏主席嘎玛泽登,人民日报总编辑陈建文。王皓和陈建文是江泽民派系的,嘎玛泽登是胡锦涛派系,我们马上就要分析。

所以《能上能下》这句话不是习近平喜欢听的话。习近平原本打算终身连任,而且习近平现在暂时也在台上。下什么下啊。习近平肯定不愿意听这样的话啊。但是政治局会议已经做出了这样的决定,能上能下。

习近平下没下不知道啊,但是钟绍军是真的下了。习近平主持中共中央政治局第十七次集体学习,习近平这越来越扯淡了。越来越务虚了。搞起文化学习了。习近平就是一个小学博士,还能学文化呢。这次学习呢,是再次确认,习近平在军队的原来的大秘,钟绍军是真的下了。他的名牌上写的就是钟绍军,肩章虽然模糊,也可以看清就是国防大学。军衔还是中将。

而且按照三中全会之后的态势呢,一个习近平的官员也不会提拔。钟绍军比较年轻现在56岁,中将是63岁退休。钟绍军有可能会在国防大学政委的位置,干7年才退休。而且钟绍军毕竟是习近平的秘书,抓钟绍军等于要抓习近平了,没有那么容易轻易动钟绍军。

但钟绍军不会晋升上将。因为国防大学就是副战区级单位,就是中将级别。中共就是专业的事情特别扯淡,扯淡的事情搞得特别专业。以前国防大学是正战区级,也就是说,只要任命成国防大学校长或者政委,那必然要提拔上将。

但是现在国防大学已经降格了。国防大学的校长和政委默认就是中将。可以高配一个上将,但是也可以不高配上将。也就是说,钟绍军在国防大学政委的职位上,默认是不可能提拔的上将的。要么是破格提拔,要么给他换一个工作。

说白了,就是要把钟绍军焊死在国防大学政委的位子上退休啊。树挪死,人挪活。就是不让钟绍军动了。打什么还要看主人。习近平这个主子不好过,钟绍军也跟着吃瓜老啊

另外一个看点就是王强也出现了。原来的北部战区司令,现在由黄铭上将接任,黄铭是江泽民的人。王强也算是软着陆吧。就是在军委安排一个闲职,反正不能在担任战区司令这样的关键岗位了。东部战区司令林向阳似乎也在,镜头比较模糊比较小,还不是正脸,也看不到名牌啊。感觉就是一个维稳会,故意给王强,林向阳亮相的机会。既要把习近平的调门放低,能上能下都出来了。又要表示共产党还在,共产党的独裁体制还在。

我们看一下即将担任西藏主席的嘎玛泽登的派系背景。1997年10月,30岁的嘎玛泽登担任西藏自治区那曲地区尼玛县委副书记、县长。当时西藏书记是陈奎元,是陈云习近平派系的,二把手郭金龙是胡锦涛派系。就猜是哪个派系的就行。县长级别低一些。但是,1999年3月 – 1999年7月嘎玛泽登在中央党校培训部西藏班学习,这个就是局级官员的资格认证班,通过这个培训就可以提拔成局级官员了。肯定不是陈奎元安排的就是郭金龙安排的。

2002年10月 – 2005年7月,35岁的嘎玛泽登任西藏自治区那曲地区行署秘书长。当时那曲地区行署专员是多托(2000年9月 – 2003年8月)和段襄政(2003年 – 2008年)。2012年10月 – 2015年6月,嘎玛泽登任西藏自治区人民政府副秘书长(正厅级)。嘎玛泽登是当时的西藏自治区党委常委、自治区常务副主席丁业现的大秘。

丁业现就是胡春华提拔的。1996年12月,36岁的丁业现担任山南地区经济贸易体制改革委员会党组副书记、主任。当时的山南地区地委书记是向巴平措 (1995年6月 – 1997年11月),行署专员是胡春华 (1995年7月 – 1997年11月)。丁业现不是向巴平措提拔的,就是胡春华提拔的,实际上向巴平措和胡春华是一个派系的。向巴平措就是郭金龙提拔的,胡春华也是郭金龙的大秘,就是胡锦涛为了培养胡春华,给安排的。

无论所谓的团派,还是所谓的红二代,都是共产党,都是一个套路。当年,蒋经国临死之前,假惺惺的对蒋纬国说,你来接班吧。蒋纬国说,我没有班底啊。但是,胡春华是有班底的。孙政才如果不是在秦城的话,他也是有班底的。当然了,只说31个省长级别的,只有嘎玛泽登这么一个,是不够。但是31个省长,如果有15个呢,就差不多。

原则上,总书记和总理一个是江泽民人,一个是胡锦涛的人。总书记和总理不会有习近平派系的。所以丁薛祥不可能啊。袁家军如果是胡锦涛的人,胡春华可能就不会再上去了。袁家军如果是曾庆红的人,胡春华有可能要上去,好的谢谢大家。

英文翻译

The Politburo officially announced: Xi Jinping can be promoted or demoted, Hu Chunhua’s team, Karma Tseten, will Hu Chunhua take over as general secretary?

Hello everyone, on October 28, 2024, the Politburo of the Communist Party of China held a meeting. In the brief report of the party media, there was a sentence saying, “Strictly implement democratic centralism and promote the promotion and demotion of leading cadres.” There is no doubt that the biggest news of this Politburo meeting is the sentence of being able to be promoted or demoted. Whether it is supporting Xi Jinping’s big foreign propaganda or opposing Xi Jinping’s position against the Communist Party. Being able to point out this sentence and being able to say this sentence is the key content of this Politburo meeting. Only professional media.

Karma Tseten will take over as the chairman of Tibet. Yesterday I said that Zhejiang Provincial Party Secretary Wang Hao, People’s Daily President Yu Shaoliang, and Shanxi Vice Governor Lin Hongyu were originally arranged by Jiang Zemin to take over Sun Zhengcai. Yu Shaoliang was promoted by Sun Zhengcai’s chief secretary Wang Fujie. As a result, the successor team went up. Sun Zhengcai went to live in Qincheng. The same is true for Hu Chunhua. Hu Chunhua also has a successor team. Let’s look at the relationship between Karma Zeden and Hu Chunhua. Hu Chunhua is different from Sun Zhengcai.

Hu Chunhua is not in Qincheng, so Karma Zeden, who is a member of Hu Chunhua’s team, is in. Can Hu Chunhua go up and replace Xi Jinping?

Let’s first look at this big shot’s comments on the Zhongguancun No. 3 Primary School Xianzhong incident. Why is Zhongguancun No. 3 Primary School awesome? Let’s put it this way. Why is Wanliu Academy 360,000 per square meter? Because it is a school district house for Zhongguancun No. 3 Primary School. Jinshan Ge spent 110 million to buy a school district house for No. 3 Primary School. Ge Ke resigned more than three years ago, and he is still in Jinshan. Just to be classmates with the grandson of the minister and academician, do you understand? Among the ministries and commissions of the State Council, the unpopular ministers can’t get into No. 3 Primary School with their notes. There are only four ministries and commissions that can be used in all schools in Beijing. Four ministries and commissions, I don’t know which four ministries and commissions this big shot is talking about. The first ones that come to mind are the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance.

In fact, I have always been skeptical of the theory of the dragoons. When the nest is overturned, how can the eggs remain intact? I don’t understand what is special about Beijing. Maybe they don’t understand the real security situation in Beijing. The big foreign propaganda has been brainwashing that China is safe, China is safe, which is obviously not the case.

They pretend that things have not happened until they have happened to them. I have heard Chinese diplomats in Zimbabwe say that even though Zimbabwe is like that, the upper class is still singing and dancing, and everything is normal. Zimbabwe’s currency has depreciated to such an extent. However, we don’t live in Zimbabwe. This Chinese diplomat lives in Zimbabwe. However, the diplomat said that everything is normal in the upper class.

The great flood in Zimbabwe has not yet flooded the upper class. The great flood in China has not yet come, but Zhang Xianzhong has already reached Zhongguancun No. 3 Primary School. When the great flood in China comes, Zimbabwe may be a small witch compared to a big witch. We are about to witness the arrival of this great era.

Xinhua News Agency’s report on the Politburo meeting first said that the Politburo affirmed the inspection work, and also said that the party building of central organs and central financial units “has been strengthened, and new results have been achieved in various work”; at the same time, it also said that “there are also some problems” and repeated some clichés and official language in the notice. However, the Xinhua News Agency report then changed its tone and said that the Politburo meeting emphasized that “it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the leadership team, strictly implement democratic centralism, and promote the ability of leading cadres to move up and down.” The Politburo’s discussion of the inspection report seemed to have unexpectedly increased the stakes, and it was more like taking advantage of the topic. An inspection that was originally a formality was first affirmed, but then it was used as a topic. There were not many major problems disclosed in the notice, but the Politburo deliberately raised it to the point of “leading cadres can move up and down”, which seemed rather abrupt. In other words, the pre-planned agenda of the Politburo meeting suddenly reversed in some way.

Who proposed “promoting the ability of leading cadres to move up and down”? Xinhua News Agency reported that Xi Jinping presided over the Politburo meeting, but did not say that Xi Jinping gave a speech, so who proposed the idea of ​​”leading cadres can move up and down”? The current situation is sensitive, and it should be unusual to see such a sensitive phrase in the public report of the Politburo meeting. No matter who proposed such an opinion, it seems that it has been agreed by the majority and asked Xinhua News Agency to report it publicly. This is the official announcement of the Politburo.

If so, the agenda of the Politburo meeting is no longer under Xi Jinping’s control. Because the Xinhua News Agency report also said that the meeting also discussed other matters. This cliché is said at every Politburo meeting. What are the other matters? Needless to say, it is the promotion of Zhejiang Provincial Party Secretary Wang Hao, Tibet Chairman Karma Tseden, and People’s Daily Editor-in-Chief Chen Jianwen. Wang Hao and Chen Jianwen are from Jiang Zemin’s faction, and Karma Tseden is from Hu Jintao’s faction. We will analyze it soon.

So the phrase “can go up and down” is not what Xi Jinping likes to hear. Xi Jinping originally planned to be re-elected for life, and Xi Jinping is temporarily in power now. What is going down? Xi Jinping certainly doesn’t want to hear such words. But the Politburo meeting has made such a decision, can go up and down.

I don’t know whether Xi Jinping has stepped down, but Zhong Shaojun has really stepped down. Xi Jinping presided over the 17th collective study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. Xi Jinping is talking nonsense more and more. He is more and more pragmatic. He is starting to learn culture. Xi Jinping is just a primary school doctor, and he can still learn culture. This study session confirmed again that Xi Jinping’s former military secretary, Zhong Shaojun, was really removed. His name tag says Zhong Shaojun. Although the shoulder strap is blurry, you can still see that he is from the National Defense University. His military rank is still lieutenant general.

And according to the situation after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, no official of Xi Jinping will be promoted. Zhong Shaojun is relatively young, now 56 years old, and lieutenant generals retire at the age of 63. Zhong Shaojun may be the political commissar of the National Defense University and retire after 7 years. And Zhong Shaojun is Xi Jinping’s secretary after all. Arresting Zhong Shaojun is equivalent to arresting Xi Jinping. It is not so easy to move Zhong Shaojun.

But Zhong Shaojun will not be promoted to general. Because the National Defense University is a deputy theater-level unit, that is, the rank of lieutenant general. The Communist Party of China is very nonsense about professional matters, and it is very professional in nonsense matters. In the past, the National Defense University was at the theater level, which means that as long as you are appointed as the president or political commissar of the National Defense University, you must be promoted to the rank of general.

But now the National Defense University has been downgraded. The president and political commissar of the National Defense University are by default lieutenant generals. You can be promoted to the rank of general, but you can also be promoted to the rank of general. In other words, Zhong Shaojun is not promoted to the rank of general in his position as the political commissar of the National Defense University. Either he should be promoted out of turn, or he should be given a new job.

To put it bluntly, Zhong Shaojun is being welded to the position of the political commissar of the National Defense University and retired. A tree that is moved dies, but a person who is moved lives. Zhong Shaojun is not allowed to move. What to fight depends on the master. Xi Jinping is not having a good time, and Zhong Shaojun is also following him.

Another point of interest is that Wang Qiang has also appeared. The former commander of the Northern Theater Command is now succeeded by General Huang Ming, who is Jiang Zemin’s man. Wang Qiang can be considered a soft landing. He is given an idle position in the Military Commission, but he can no longer hold a key position such as the theater commander. Eastern Theater Commander Lin Xiangyang also seemed to be there, but the shot was blurry and small, and it was not his face, and his name tag was not visible. It felt like a stability maintenance meeting, deliberately giving Wang Qiang and Lin Xiangyang the opportunity to show up. It was necessary to lower Xi Jinping’s tone, and to show that those who could go up and down were all present. It was also necessary to show that the Communist Party was still there, and the Communist Party’s dictatorship was still there.

Let’s take a look at the factional background of Karma Tseden, who is about to become the chairman of Tibet. In October 1997, Karma Tseden, 30, served as the deputy secretary and county magistrate of Nima County, Nagqu Prefecture, Tibet Autonomous Region. At that time, the secretary of Tibet was Chen Kuiyuan, who was from the Chen Yun and Xi Jinping faction, and the second-in-command Guo Jinlong was from the Hu Jintao faction. Just guess which faction he was from. The county magistrate was of a lower level. However, from March to July 1999, Karma Tseden studied in the Tibet class of the Central Party School Training Department, which was the qualification certification class for bureau-level officials. After passing this training, he could be promoted to a bureau-level official. It must be arranged by either Chen Kuiyuan or Guo Jinlong.

From October 2002 to July 2005, 35-year-old Karma Tseten served as Secretary-General of the Naqu Prefecture Administrative Office of the Tibet Autonomous Region. At that time, the Commissioners of the Naqu Prefecture Administrative Office were Duotuo (September 2000-August 2003) and Duan Xiangzheng (2003-2008). From October 2012 to June 2015, Karma Tseten served as Deputy Secretary-General of the People’s Government of the Tibet Autonomous Region (at the level of a full department). Karma Tseten was the chief secretary of Ding Yexian, then member of the Standing Committee of the Tibet Autonomous Region Party Committee and Executive Vice Chairman of the Autonomous Region.

Ding Yexian was promoted by Hu Chunhua. In December 1996, 36-year-old Ding Yexian served as Deputy Secretary and Director of the Party Group of the Shannan Prefecture Economic and Trade System Reform Commission. The then Secretary of the Shannan Prefectural Party Committee was Xiangba Phuntsok (June 1995 – November 1997), and the Commissioner of the Administrative Office was Hu Chunhua (July 1995 – November 1997). Ding Yexian was promoted by either Xiangba Phuntsok or Hu Chunhua. In fact, Xiangba Phuntsok and Hu Chunhua belonged to the same faction. Xiangba Phuntsok was promoted by Guo Jinlong, and Hu Chunhua was also Guo Jinlong’s chief secretary. Hu Jintao arranged this in order to train Hu Chunhua.

Whether it is the so-called Youth League faction or the so-called second generation of reds, they are all Communists and use the same tactics. Before Chiang Ching-kuo died, he said to Chiang Wei-kuo hypocritically, “You take over.” Chiang Wei-kuo said, “I don’t have a team.” However, Hu Chunhua has a team. If Sun Zhengcai was not in Qincheng, he would also have a team. Of course, it is not enough to have only one person like Karma Tsedeng among the 31 provincial governors. But if there are 15 governors out of 31, that’s about right.

In principle, the general secretary and the prime minister are one Jiang Zemin and one Hu Jintao. The general secretary and the prime minister will not be from Xi Jinping’s faction. So Ding Xuexiang is impossible. If Yuan Jiajun is Hu Jintao’s man, Hu Chunhua may not be promoted. If Yuan Jiajun is Zeng Qinghong’s man, Hu Chunhua may be promoted. Okay, thank you everyone.

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