董军被抓，蔡奇儿子蔡尔津被中纪委带走调查。朱芝松被抓，金壮龙和应勇也快了。工行前副行长张红力案
大家好，消息太多了。我受不了了。未来半年，几乎每天都要有大消息。中国国防部长董军被抓。上海浦东的书记朱芝松被抓，金壮龙和应勇也快了。工行前副行长张红力案，这个案子由于消息太多我都没有来得及说。接到最新爆料，一位现任政治局常委的儿子被抓走了。
我给大家简单总结一下军队的态势：未来33个人的秦城名单。这33个人都会按照三种模式处理，第一种是退休，第二种是进秦城，第三种发讣告直接送走。因为有第三种，所以我不愿意预测。我又不是生死判官，这就是一个政治评论分析。预测的话，预测不准了是正常的，预测准了就是碰巧。
逻辑的大前提正确，那么结论就是正确的。逻辑前提错误，结论就错误。之前我说过的，前提就是江泽民胡锦涛习近平，他们三个人是三个派系。习近平是江泽民提拔的，那是大外宣给习近平洗地的说法。习近平如果是江泽民提拔的，为什么一上台就把江泽民的人都抓了。李嘉诚也跑了，李嘉诚不是说是江泽民的白手套吗？习近平如果是江泽民的人，李嘉诚为什么要跑呢？江泽民胡锦涛习近平他们三个人，任何两个人说成一个派系，都是错漏百出。很多事情都没法解释。
现在的局势就是上将都抓7个了，而且没抓完，还要抓。习近平自己抓自己人，这种解释没有任何的说服力。习近平又不是精神病，习近平如果是精神病，他三中全会之前怎么掌握大权。现在的前提就是习近平到底是否掌握大权。习近平还掌握大权这种说法已经没法自圆其说了。如果你同意习近平不掌握大权，那么谁在掌权呢？就有人推出了张又侠掌权这种说法，这种说法我认为也是站不住脚的。张又侠掌握军队还说的过去，那么地方呢？
三中全会之后提拔的80个正部级副部级官员，怎么解释呢？还真的是张又侠拿着枪杆子，顶着李干杰的脑袋，让李干杰提拔的吗？所以这个也解释不通的。为了给这种说法补锅，为了自圆其说，又推出了张又侠解放元老这种论调。归根结底，不是还是需要元老来救场吗？这是谎言，我只能这么说。解放元老这种说法错就错在张又侠为什么反了呢？
张又侠是习近平的铁杆马仔
除非有人拿枪顶着张又侠的脑袋，否则张又侠不可能反对习近平。
我都分析过多少遍了，中国军队一半在胡锦涛和江泽民这两大政治集团手中。张又侠要反，他也不可能指挥得动胡锦涛和江泽民政治集团的人。江泽民骨灰都扬了，我们先假设江泽民的军队听曾庆红指挥。其实江泽民的军队应该是听李强指挥。这个我也论证过好多遍，李强是江泽民的人，不是习近平的人。为了简化讨论，我们可以假设江泽民的军队听曾庆红指挥，也差距不是很大。反正都属于江泽民政治集团。江泽民虽然骨灰扬了，但是江泽民政治集团还在。
曾庆红听胡锦涛指挥，现在就是两大政治集团，胡锦涛江泽民政治集团联手，将来把习近平搞下去之后，肯定还要分裂啊。将来再说将来的。现在等于二次创业，现在肯定是没有分裂的本钱。简单说就是胡锦涛和习近平两大政治集团的对决。就是2024年6月动手了，因为陆军政委秦树桐，海军政委袁华智，陆军副司令黎火辉，陆军副司令邓志平，装备部副部长林柏等人，林柏是李尚福的秘书，都是被胡锦涛6月份一锅端了。胡锦涛动手之前，张又侠是不可能，也没有任何理由反对习近平。
有的人不了解习近平，习近平这个人特别护犊子，他从来不抓自己人。只有一种可能就是，胡锦涛把中国陆军一锅端了之后，张又侠见势不妙。立马调转枪头宣誓效忠胡锦涛。只有这么一种可能，我简单给大家分析一下，张又侠他爸张宗逊。
首先我说派系是什么意思呢？就是说四个级别，处级官员级别太低没有派系。其实正处级也可以说有，也可以说没有。就是干到退休还是正处级，那肯定是没有派系的。如果正处级不过是他仕途的一个跳板，那应该是有派系的。我们简单说就是，1，正处提拔副局级，2，副局级提拔正局级，3，正局级提拔副部级，4，副部级提拔正部级。
就是这四步必须是同一个人或者同一个派系的人提拔的。前后很可能是20年，就是说，20年前是同一个派系提拔的，20年后还是同一个派系的提拔。正部级一般再快也是55岁提拔的。20年前就是35岁的，这就是正部级35岁定律的由来。就是说一个人之所以能当上正部级，省长省委书记或者部长，是因为当他还是正处级，甚至正科级的时候，就被总书记看上了。
简单的说就是江泽民，胡锦涛，习近平这三个人，加上总理就是李鹏，朱镕基，温家宝，李克强，李强，就这8个人，没别人。再往前就是邓小平，陈云，胡耀邦，赵紫阳。
就这12个人，没有别人。其他人都不好使。当然了，认识曾庆红就等于认识了江泽民，认识贺国强就等于认识了胡锦涛，认识了苗华就等于认识了习近平。就是举个例子。而且这里面还有一个细节需要讲一下。就是一个官员认识了曾庆红都没用，曾庆红他不好使。
这个很难发现但是我发现了这个情况。我刚说认识曾庆红就等于认识江泽民，那么立刻又说认识曾庆红没用是不是自相矛盾呢？不是。就是说哪怕一个官员认识了曾庆红。但是，还必须要由曾庆红带着这名官员，引荐这名官员见过了江泽民，江泽民认可了。才会被提拔。就是由于中共的黑箱政治，这个细节很难发现。就是有的时候，我们发现一名官员和曾庆红有交集，但是呢，曾庆红有没有带着这名官员去见过江泽民，我们没有办法知道。
这个细节很可怕的很难发现，但是看的多了就能发现一些蛛丝马迹。因为我大概分析了300个左右的官员。可能我还是看的太少，如果分析过3000个官员，可能会有更多的知识点给大家分享。就是认识了曾庆红都没有用，曾庆红已经中组部长，政治局常委了。但是，如果没有江泽民的背书，曾庆红不好使。所以我说只有总书记或者总理才好使。当然了，这名官员都已经认识了曾庆红，曾庆红有没有带他见过江泽民，那，很难分辨啊。如果他认识了曾庆红，但还是上不去，除去政治对手打压的因素。很可能是因为他只是认识曾庆红，但是没有得到江泽民的背书。不是说江泽民不相信曾庆红，江泽民百分百信任曾庆红。也不是说习近平，不信任苗华，习近平百分百信任苗华。习近平已经提拔了苗华推荐的国防部长董军，东部战区司令林向阳，火箭军司令王厚斌，海军政委袁华智，习近平百分百相信苗华。就是说，找苗华跑官要官的的多了去了。不能都提拔啊。苗华提拔个上校大校还差不多。提拔上将中将必须要习近平点头。
这就是权力的排他性，权力的残酷性。只有总书记能说了算。最多是总理或者人大委员长。什么苗华，什么陈希都不好使。就陈希一个中组部长而已，连政治局常委都不是，陈希能决定什么事情呢。由于重大的事情只有总书记能决定。而习近平恰恰是江泽民胡锦涛习近平三个人，最傻缺的那一个。就是木桶理论，习近平，最短的那一块木板。如果不能换掉这块木板。这块木板的上限就决定了中国这桶水或者说中共这桶水的上限。习近平的上限很低，所以什么事情都要办砸了。
回到这个派系，我说的副局级正局级副部级正部级这4步，只有由一个人或者同一个派系的人提拔。换派系只有一种可能，就是重新投胎。但是凡事都有例外，我看了300个官员，唯一一个例外就是张宗逊。就是张又侠他爸。张又侠他爸张宗逊本来是周恩来派系的。1973年6月，张宗逊升任中国人民解放军总后勤部部长。1978年离休。
张又侠他爸张宗逊，文革的时候投靠了江青，升任了总后勤部的部长。这是我目前为止，发现的唯一个，换派系成功的官员。除此之外，没有一个官员，换派系能够成功的。成功的意思就是换了派系，还能被提拔的。张又侠他爸张宗逊从济南军区副司令提拔为总后勤部的部长。我看过两三个老干部的回忆录写道，当时有个老同志，跟着江青四人帮走，怎么怎么着。什么老同志，那个老同志的名字就是张宗逊。
张宗逊1978年四人帮一倒台，为什么就离休了呢？1978年张宗逊70岁，当年70岁绝对不是退休的年龄。1985年，1989年之后才把官员的退休年龄卡70岁的，65岁退居二线，70岁完全退休。1978年，80岁的老干部也有啊。张宗逊被退休是犯了错误的。这里面还有一个就是张又侠1978年，28岁。
文革的时候张又侠他爸被整过，但是文革的时候张又侠已经18岁了。而且张宗逊投靠了江青，还升官了。也就是说，和习近平不一样。习近平小时候进过少管所，一下子就心理变态了。但是，张又侠呢，由于他爸张宗逊投靠了江青，文革中没有怎么被整过。
张又侠从小和他爸张宗逊学会的可能就是见风使舵。当时话说回来，哪个官员不是见风使舵啊。但是见风使舵也没用，该抓还是要抓。上海市委常委会：坚决拥护党中央对朱芝松的处理决定。陈吉宁，龚正，朱芝松都是习近平派系的，自己派系的人，被抓，照样坚决拥护。我觉得这名网友说的很好，现在反过来了，忠诚没有问题才会被抓。越是忠于习近平，越会被抓。
张又侠这样的，从小从他爸张宗逊那里耳濡目染的，见势不妙就跳船了。我真说不好。但是胡锦涛动手之前，张又侠，肯定不是会反对习近平，也没有理由反对习近平的。
这是我给大家总结的秦城候选人，33个候选人。这33个候选人，也不会都抓，但是说，抓15个，我都觉得说了保守了。为什么是这33个人呢。逻辑是什么？军队习近平14个上将，已经抓了7个，抓了一半了。政治局委员也跑不了，还没开始抓而已。未来半年，会经常有大消息。军队都抓光了，覆巢之下，焉有完卵。政治局委员算啥呀，政治局常委都直接抓上。我说的这个抓是三种方式啊，退休，进秦城，直接发讣告送走。最后一种最可怕。
刺刀真的见红了，见到你儿子蔡尔津的红了，蔡奇。真的硬碰硬了。碰到中办主任了。传言，蔡奇的儿子蔡尔津被中纪委带走调查。消息真假，我无法完全核实。但是我能够部分证实这个消息的可信性，我没法百分百确定。只能告诉大家，四中全会习近平蔡奇丁薛祥全下。蔡奇是否要进秦城，要看运气。好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Dong Jun was arrested, Cai Qi’s son Cai Erjin was taken away by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection for investigation. Zhu Zhisong was arrested, Jin Zhuanglong and Ying Yong will soon be arrested. The case of Zhang Hongli, former vice president of ICBC
Hello everyone, there are too many news. I can’t stand it. In the next six months, there will be big news almost every day. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun was arrested. Zhu Zhisong, secretary of Pudong, Shanghai, was arrested, Jin Zhuanglong and Ying Yong will soon be arrested. The case of Zhang Hongli, former vice president of ICBC, I didn’t have time to talk about this case because there was too much news. According to the latest news, the son of a current member of the Politburo Standing Committee was arrested.
Let me give you a brief summary of the military situation: the list of 33 people in Qincheng in the future. These 33 people will be dealt with according to three modes. The first is retirement, the second is entering Qincheng, and the third is to send them away directly with an obituary. Because there is a third mode, I don’t want to predict. I am not a judge of life and death, this is a political commentary analysis. If the prediction is inaccurate, it is normal, and if the prediction is accurate, it is just a coincidence.
If the logical premise is correct, then the conclusion is correct. If the logical premise is wrong, then the conclusion is wrong. As I said before, the premise is that Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping are three factions. Xi Jinping was promoted by Jiang Zemin, which is the foreign propaganda to whitewash Xi Jinping. If Xi Jinping was promoted by Jiang Zemin, why did he arrest Jiang Zemin’s people as soon as he came to power? Li Ka-shing also ran away. Isn’t Li Ka-shing said to be Jiang Zemin’s white glove? If Xi Jinping is Jiang Zemin’s man, why did Li Ka-shing run away? Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping, any two of them, are wrong and omissions. Many things cannot be explained.
The current situation is that seven generals have been arrested, and they have not been arrested yet, and more arrests are needed. Xi Jinping arrested his own people, this explanation is not convincing at all. Xi Jinping is not a mental patient. If Xi Jinping is a mental patient, how could he have held power before the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee? The current premise is whether Xi Jinping holds power. The statement that Xi Jinping still holds power can no longer be justified. If you agree that Xi Jinping does not hold the power, then who is in power? Some people have put forward the argument that Zhang Youxia is in power, but I think this argument is also untenable. It is reasonable for Zhang Youxia to control the military, but what about the local governments?
How to explain the 80 ministerial and deputy ministerial officials promoted after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee? Was it really Zhang Youxia who held the gun against Li Ganjie’s head and asked Li Ganjie to promote them? So this explanation is also unreasonable. In order to make up for this argument and to justify themselves, the argument that Zhang Youxia liberated the elders was put forward. In the final analysis, don’t we still need the elders to save the situation? This is a lie, I can only say this. The argument that liberated the elders is wrong because why did Zhang Youxia rebel?
Zhang Youxia is Xi Jinping’s die-hard henchman
Unless someone holds a gun against Zhang Youxia’s head, Zhang Youxia cannot oppose Xi Jinping.
I have analyzed it many times. Half of China’s military is in the hands of the two major political groups of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. If Zhang Youxia wants to rebel, he can’t command the people of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin’s political group. Jiang Zemin’s ashes have been scattered. Let’s assume that Jiang Zemin’s army obeys Zeng Qinghong’s command. In fact, Jiang Zemin’s army should obey Li Qiang’s command. I have argued this many times. Li Qiang is Jiang Zemin’s man, not Xi Jinping’s man. To simplify the discussion, we can assume that Jiang Zemin’s army obeys Zeng Qinghong’s command, and the difference is not very big. Anyway, they all belong to Jiang Zemin’s political group. Although Jiang Zemin’s ashes have been scattered, Jiang Zemin’s political group is still there.
Zeng Qinghong obeys Hu Jintao’s command. Now there are two major political groups. The Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin political groups have joined forces. After Xi Jinping is removed in the future, they will definitely split again. Let’s talk about the future. Now it is equivalent to starting a second business. There is definitely no capital for splitting now. Simply put, it is a showdown between the two major political groups of Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. It was in June 2024 that the action was taken, because Qin Shutong, the political commissar of the army, Yuan Huazhi, the political commissar of the navy, Li Huohui, the deputy commander of the army, Deng Zhiping, the deputy commander of the army, Lin Bo, the deputy minister of the equipment department, and others were all taken down by Hu Jintao in June. Before Hu Jintao took action, it was impossible for Zhang Youxia to oppose Xi Jinping, and there was no reason for him to do so.
Some people don’t understand Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is particularly protective of his own people. He never arrests his own people. There is only one possibility, that is, after Hu Jintao took down the Chinese army, Zhang Youxia saw that the situation was not good. He immediately turned his gun and swore allegiance to Hu Jintao. There is only such a possibility. Let me briefly analyze it for you. Zhang Youxia’s father is Zhang Zongxun.
First of all, what do I mean by faction? It means that there are four levels. The level of division-level officials is too low to have factions. In fact, it can be said that there are factions at the level of the director, or there are no factions. If he is still at the level of the director until retirement, then there must be no factions. If the level of the director is just a stepping stone for his career, then there should be factions. Let’s put it simply: 1. The director is promoted to deputy bureau level, 2. The deputy bureau level is promoted to director level, 3. The director level is promoted to deputy minister level, 4. The deputy minister level is promoted to minister level.
These four steps must be promoted by the same person or people from the same faction. It is very likely that 20 years have passed. That is to say, 20 years ago, the same faction promoted them, and 20 years later, the same faction promoted them. Ministerial level is generally promoted at the age of 55. 20 years ago, it was 35 years old, which is the origin of the 35-year-old law for ministerial level. That is to say, the reason why a person can become a ministerial level, governor, provincial party secretary or minister is because when he was still at the director level or even the section level, he was favored by the general secretary.
Simply put, it is Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping. The three people, plus the prime minister, are Li Peng, Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao, Li Keqiang, and Li Qiang. There are only these 8 people, no one else. Going back further, it is Deng Xiaoping, Chen Yun, Hu Yaobang, and Zhao Ziyang.
There are only these 12 people, no one else. Others are useless. Of course, knowing Zeng Qinghong is equivalent to knowing Jiang Zemin, knowing He Guoqiang is equivalent to knowing Hu Jintao, and knowing Miao Hua is equivalent to knowing Xi Jinping. Just to give an example. And there is another detail here that needs to be mentioned. It is useless for an official to know Zeng Qinghong. Zeng Qinghong is useless.
This is difficult to find, but I found this situation. I just said that knowing Zeng Qinghong is equivalent to knowing Jiang Zemin, and then immediately said that knowing Zeng Qinghong is useless. Isn’t it contradictory? No. That is to say, even if an official knows Zeng Qinghong. However, Zeng Qinghong must take this official and introduce this official to meet Jiang Zemin, and Jiang Zemin must approve it. Only then will he be promoted. It is because of the black box politics of the CCP that this detail is difficult to find. Sometimes, we find that an official has an intersection with Zeng Qinghong, but we have no way of knowing whether Zeng Qinghong has taken this official to meet Jiang Zemin.
This detail is very scary and difficult to find, but if you look at it more, you can find some clues. Because I have analyzed about 300 officials. Maybe I still look at too few. If I analyze 3,000 officials, there may be more knowledge points to share with you. It is useless to know Zeng Qinghong. Zeng Qinghong is already the Minister of Organization and a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. However, without Jiang Zemin’s endorsement, Zeng Qinghong is not effective. So I said that only the general secretary or the prime minister can work. Of course, this official has already known Zeng Qinghong. Whether Zeng Qinghong has taken him to see Jiang Zemin, it is difficult to tell. If he knows Zeng Qinghong, but still can’t get promoted, excluding the factor of suppression by political opponents. It is very likely because he only knows Zeng Qinghong, but has not been endorsed by Jiang Zemin. It is not that Jiang Zemin does not trust Zeng Qinghong, Jiang Zemin trusts Zeng Qinghong 100%. It is also not that Xi Jinping does not trust Miao Hua, Xi Jinping trusts Miao Hua 100%. Xi Jinping has promoted Defense Minister Dong Jun, Eastern Theater Commander Lin Xiangyang, Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin, and Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, who were recommended by Miao Hua. Xi Jinping trusts Miao Hua 100%. That is to say, there are too many people who seek official positions from Miao Hua. They cannot all be promoted. Miao Hua promoting a colonel or a major general is fine. To promote a general or a lieutenant general, Xi Jinping must nod his head.
This is the exclusivity and cruelty of power. Only the general secretary can make the final decision. At most, it is the prime minister or the chairman of the National People’s Congress. Miao Hua and Chen Xi are useless. Chen Xi is just the head of the Organization Department of the Central Committee, not even a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. What can Chen Xi decide? Because only the general secretary can decide on major matters. And Xi Jinping is exactly the stupidest one among Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. It is the barrel theory. Xi Jinping is the shortest piece of wood. If this piece of wood cannot be replaced, the upper limit of this piece of wood determines the upper limit of China’s bucket of water or the CCP’s bucket of water. Xi Jinping’s ceiling is very low, so everything will be messed up.
Back to the faction, the four steps of deputy bureau level, bureau level, deputy ministerial level and ministerial level that I mentioned can only be promoted by one person or people from the same faction. There is only one possibility to change factions, which is to be reborn. But there are exceptions to everything. I have looked at 300 officials, and the only exception is Zhang Zongshun. He is Zhang Youxia’s father. Zhang Youxia’s father Zhang Zongshun was originally from Zhou Enlai’s faction. In June 1973, Zhang Zongshun was promoted to the Minister of the General Logistics Department of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. He retired in 1978.
Zhang Youxia’s father Zhang Zongshun defected to Jiang Qing during the Cultural Revolution and was promoted to the Minister of the General Logistics Department. This is the only official I have found so far who has successfully changed factions. Apart from this, no official can successfully change factions. Success means that after changing factions, he can still be promoted. Zhang Youxia’s father Zhang Zongshun was promoted from the deputy commander of the Jinan Military Region to the Minister of the General Logistics Department. I have read the memoirs of two or three old cadres, who wrote that there was an old comrade who followed Jiang Qing and the Gang of Four and did this and that. What old comrade? The name of that old comrade was Zhang Zongshun.
Why did Zhang Zongshun retire as soon as the Gang of Four fell in 1978? Zhang Zongshun was 70 years old in 1978, and 70 was definitely not the retirement age at that time. The retirement age for officials was set at 70 in 1985 and 1989, and officials retired to the second line at 65 and retired completely at 70. In 1978, there were also old cadres who were 80 years old. Zhang Zongshun was retired because of a mistake. Another one was Zhang Youxia in 1978, when he was 28 years old.
During the Cultural Revolution, Zhang Youxia’s father was persecuted, but Zhang Youxia was already 18 years old during the Cultural Revolution. Moreover, Zhang Zongshun joined Jiang Qing and was promoted. In other words, he is different from Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping was in a juvenile detention center when he was a child, and he suddenly became a mentally abnormal. However, Zhang Youxia was not persecuted during the Cultural Revolution because his father Zhang Zongsun surrendered to Jiang Qing.
Zhang Youxia may have learned from his father Zhang Zongsun that he should change his mind according to the situation. At that time, which official did not change his mind according to the situation? But changing his mind according to the situation is useless, and he should be arrested. Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Standing Committee: Firmly support the Party Central Committee’s decision to deal with Zhu Zhisong. Chen Jining, Gong Zheng, and Zhu Zhisong are all from Xi Jinping’s faction. People from their own faction are still firmly supported when they are arrested. I think this netizen said it very well. Now it is the other way around. Only those who have no problems with loyalty will be arrested. The more loyal you are to Xi Jinping, the more likely you will be arrested.
Zhang Youxia, who was influenced by his father Zhang Zongsun since childhood, jumped ship when he saw the situation was not good. I really can’t say. But before Hu Jintao took action, Zhang Youxia would definitely not oppose Xi Jinping, and there was no reason to oppose Xi Jinping.
This is the Qincheng candidates I summarized for you, 33 candidates. These 33 candidates will not all be arrested, but I think it is conservative to say that 15 will be arrested. Why these 33 people? What is the logic? Of the 14 generals of Xi Jinping in the military, 7 have been arrested, which means half of them have been arrested. The Politburo members cannot escape either, they just haven’t started arresting them yet. There will be big news frequently in the next six months. If all the military officers are arrested, how can the eggs remain intact when the nest is overturned? What are the Politburo members? The Politburo Standing Committee members will be arrested directly. There are three ways to arrest me: retirement, going to Qincheng, and sending off directly with an obituary. The last one is the most terrible.
The bayonet really saw blood, and it was red when it saw your son Cai Erjin, Cai Qi. It was really a head-on collision. It hit the director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee. Rumor has it that Cai Qi’s son Cai Erjin was taken away for investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. I cannot fully verify the authenticity of the news. But I can partially confirm the credibility of this news, I cannot be 100% sure. I can only tell you that Xi Jinping, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang will all be gone at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee. Whether Cai Qi will go to Qincheng depends on luck. Okay, thank you everyone.