把习近平绑了送给川普纳投名状？为武汉疫情赔罪，美国取消中国最惠国待遇，对中国打击巨大
川普当选美国总统后，无论是从他提名的主要内阁成员，还是从美国众议院议长约翰逊及候任内阁要员的表态来看，都在向中共传递一个明确的信号：美国将对中共采取更强硬的态度，无论是立法层面还是具体措施。
刚被川普提名为美国贸易代表的杰米森‧格里尔（Jamieson Greer），是一位对中共持强硬立场的官员。他曾担任川普第一任期间贸易代表莱特希泽的幕僚长，在对中国征收关税方面发挥了关键作用。杰米森就是莱特希泽的大秘，可以想象杰米森会执行一个没有莱特希泽的莱特希泽路线。
2024年5月，格里尔在美中经济与安全审查委员会（USCC）听证会上，为美国政府的对华经贸政策提供了一张路线图，包括取消对华永久正常贸易关系，限制中国商品借道他国进入美国，防止中国公司迁往其它国家以逃避美国关税等。
美中经济与安全审查委员会的2024年年度报告中，建议取消美国在2000年授予中国的最惠国待遇，以改变中共的不公平贸易行为，并使美国在解决中共不公平贸易行为方面拥有更多的筹码。这是美国国会特设机构首次明确呼吁终止相关法案，格里尔在其中发挥了重要作用。
中国人熟知的“最惠国待遇”，在1998年开始，美国官方的正式称谓是“永久正常贸易关系”，是国际经贸关系中常用的一项制度，即一个国家向其所有的贸易伙伴提供相同的税率和进口配额等等。
美国在1979年美中建交后给予中国最惠国待遇，但每年都需要经过国会审查，由总统签字同意延长。2000年，美中谈妥中国加入世贸组织的条件后，美国国会投票给予中国正常贸易关系地位。2001年，中国加入世贸组织后，美国将正常贸易伙伴关系永久化。
中国加入世贸组织并获得最惠国贸易关税地位，获得的好处巨大。世界贸易组织上海研究中心主任伍尧田曾经表示，中国加入世贸获得十大好处，包括引进外资、扩大出口、扩大内需、扩大就业等等。
加入世贸后，大量外资涌入中国，出口暴增，尤其是美中两国贸易额大增。中国海关数据显示，2000年到2024年的24年间，中国对美出口额从500亿美元增加到5000亿美元，翻了10倍。中国对美国贸易顺差从280亿美元增加到2023年的3300亿美元，增长了12倍。过去25年中，美国市场占中国出口比例的均值不到20%，但贡献了中国贸易顺差总额的92%。作为拉动中国经济三驾马车之一的出口，对中国GDP的贡献一度达到30%以上。美国向中国大量输血，这些好处，并没有多少惠及普通的中国人，反而壮大了中国政府，成为中国政府奴役中国人的工具。
大量外资和出口也拉动了中国内需，扩大就业，城镇老百姓的收入快速增长。改革开放二十年来，外资企业为中国提供了1000万个就业机会，而加入世贸后，GDP每提高1个百分点，将创造400万个就业机会。然而，在中共一党专制下，国企改革半途而废，国企反而攫取了更多利益。国企就不是一家企业，国企像个半个税收机器，半个企业。就是一架吸血的机器。榨取美国人和中国人血汗钱。
在中国经济下滑、失业暴增的情况下，一旦美国取消永久正常贸易关系，对中共将是重大打击，其贸易地位将降至与朝鲜、古巴、俄罗斯等国家相同的水平。格里尔表示，这将使企业回到2000年之前的时代。在那个年代，“几乎没有人会想在中国投资生产，然后将商品出口到美国，是能够持久的商业模式”。就是要降低美国企业在中国投资生产的预期。在中国生产，只能卖给中国人，别想去骗美国的钱。
中国党产证券公司申万宏源在2024年10月底发表的一项研究探讨了取消永久正常贸易关系地位对中国的影响。报告认为，“如果美国取消中国最惠国待遇，美国非最惠国关税平均税率为42%，叠加301框架下约20%的关税，对华平均关税将升至60%以上。”加上川普刚宣布的10%额外关税，中国出口美国商品的关税最高可至70%。也就是说川普宣布的10额外关税，不是只有10%。而是给中国两个选项，60%和70%，如果中国配合美国政府禁止芬太尼，美国可以把中国的关税降到60%，不配合就是70%。额外的10%关税，不是只有10%关税。
目前，美国最惠国关税税率平均为2.2%，实际上，中国出口至美国的商品总额中，有48%的产品已经实质上不再享受“最惠国待遇”税率。这也是川普上一次担任美国总统，对中国制裁的重大战果。如果明年2025年1月川普上台后推出这项举措，那么未来美国从中国进口的货物将逐年下降，最后降至0。这也意味着美中经济形成了事实上的脱钩。美国将不再愚蠢的对中共进行输血。
瑞银集团的最新研究表明，60%的关税将砍去中国经济年增长率的一半以上。事实上，中国现在的经济发展已经十分缓慢，甚至是负增长，官方公布的增长率并不靠谱。一旦明年2025年1月遭逢重大打击，而且中共无计可施，本已火药桶四伏的中国社会，又有多少人在活不下去的情况下，引爆火药桶，让中共当局防不胜防呢？
上周，中国A股三大指数无原因大跌，人民币连续贬值，市场反应和美国要取消永久正常贸易关系、川普要加征高关税密切相关。
取消“永久正常贸易关系”的可能性有多大？首先川普团队意愿强烈，目标明确，川普是一个言出必行的人。其次，在美国朝野上下的反共共识下，在美国参众两院都是共和党控制的情况下，通过半数没有问题。
中共有什么应对措施呢？目前看，中共对外降低反美调门，频频对美国示好，意图与欧洲交好，用金钱拉拢亚非拉发展中国家，加强与俄国的关系。对内则召开出口企业老板会议，强调扩大内需。
然而，中共的伎俩早被美国看穿，川普团队无人回应中共就是表明态度。而中共继续在俄乌战争中支持俄国的做法，使得欧洲与中共拉开距离，至于被金钱拉拢的发展中国家，在美国威慑下，也会有所顾忌，甚至不排除随时变脸的可能性。
此外，中共想要拉动内需，却不给老百姓发钱，松绑对企业的限制，反而各地政府设法从老百姓手中抢走不多的存款，所期望的提振内需又从何谈起呢？
一些中共御用专家和部分海外大外宣宣扬美国如此做法，也会伤到自身，一方面遭到中共报复，一方面导致美国农业、耐用品制造业和采矿业受到严重影响，导致美国通胀率上升。但格里尔认为，“没有灵丹妙药，在某些情况下，与中国战略脱钩会造成短期痛苦”，“但是，无所作为或低估中国构成的威胁带来的代价要大得多。”这也代表了川普的看法。中共还能躲过明年的惊涛骇浪吗？
看来只能把习近平绑了送给美国赔罪了，好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Tie up Xi Jinping and send him to Trump as a token of surrender? The United States canceled China’s most-favored-nation status to apologize for the Wuhan epidemic, which dealt a huge blow to China.
After Trump was elected as the US President, whether from the main cabinet members he nominated or from the statements of US House Speaker Johnson and the cabinet-designate, he sent a clear signal to the CCP: the United States will take a tougher attitude towards the CCP, both in legislation and specific measures.
Jamieson Greer, who was just nominated by Trump as the US Trade Representative, is an official who takes a tough stance against the CCP. He served as the chief of staff of Trade Representative Lighthizer during Trump’s first term and played a key role in imposing tariffs on China. Jamieson is Lighthizer’s chief secretary. It is conceivable that Jamieson will implement a Lighthizer route without Lighthizer.
In May 2024, Greer provided a roadmap for the US government’s economic and trade policy toward China at a hearing of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), including canceling permanent normal trade relations with China, restricting Chinese goods from entering the United States through other countries, and preventing Chinese companies from moving to other countries to evade US tariffs.
In the 2024 annual report of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, it is recommended to cancel the most-favored-nation treatment granted to China by the United States in 2000 in order to change the unfair trade practices of the Chinese Communist Party and give the United States more bargaining chips in addressing the unfair trade practices of the Chinese Communist Party. This is the first time that a special agency of the US Congress has explicitly called for the termination of relevant bills, and Greer played an important role in it.
The “most-favored-nation treatment” familiar to the Chinese people, which began in 1998, is officially called “permanent normal trade relations” by the US government. It is a commonly used system in international economic and trade relations, that is, a country provides the same tax rates and import quotas to all its trading partners.
The United States granted China most-favored-nation treatment after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China in 1979, but it needs to be reviewed by Congress every year and the president signs to agree to extend it. In 2000, after the United States and China reached an agreement on the conditions for China to join the WTO, the U.S. Congress voted to grant China normal trade relations status. In 2001, after China joined the WTO, the United States made the normal trade partnership permanent.
China joined the WTO and obtained the most-favored-nation trade tariff status, and the benefits it gained were huge. Wu Yaotian, director of the World Trade Organization Shanghai Research Center, once said that China gained ten major benefits from joining the WTO, including the introduction of foreign investment, expansion of exports, expansion of domestic demand, and expansion of employment.
After joining the WTO, a large amount of foreign investment poured into China, and exports soared, especially the trade volume between the United States and China. According to Chinese customs data, in the 24 years from 2000 to 2024, China’s exports to the United States increased from US$50 billion to US$500 billion, a 10-fold increase. China’s trade surplus with the United States increased from US$28 billion to US$330 billion in 2023, a 12-fold increase. In the past 25 years, the average proportion of the US market in China’s exports was less than 20%, but it contributed 92% of China’s total trade surplus. As one of the three driving forces of China’s economy, exports once contributed more than 30% to China’s GDP. The United States has given China a lot of blood transfusions, but these benefits have not benefited ordinary Chinese people much. Instead, they have strengthened the Chinese government and become a tool for the Chinese government to enslave the Chinese people.
A large amount of foreign investment and exports have also boosted China’s domestic demand, expanded employment, and the income of urban residents has grown rapidly. In the past 20 years of reform and opening up, foreign-funded enterprises have provided 10 million jobs for China, and after joining the WTO, every 1 percentage point increase in GDP will create 4 million jobs. However, under the one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party of China, the reform of state-owned enterprises has been abandoned halfway, and state-owned enterprises have instead grabbed more benefits. State-owned enterprises are not a company. State-owned enterprises are like half a tax machine and half a company. It is a blood-sucking machine. It squeezes the hard-earned money of Americans and Chinese.
In the case of China’s economic downturn and soaring unemployment, once the United States cancels permanent normal trade relations, it will be a major blow to the Communist Party of China, and its trade status will be reduced to the same level as North Korea, Cuba, Russia and other countries. Greer said this will bring companies back to the era before 2000. In that era, “almost no one would think that investing in production in China and then exporting goods to the United States is a sustainable business model.” It is to lower the expectations of American companies to invest in production in China. If you produce in China, you can only sell to the Chinese, don’t think about cheating the United States of money.
A study published by Shenwan Hongyuan, a Chinese party-owned securities company, at the end of October 2024 explored the impact of canceling the permanent normal trade relations status on China. The report believes that “if the United States cancels China’s most-favored-nation treatment, the average tariff rate of the United States’ non-most-favored-nation tariff is 42%, and the average tariff on China will rise to more than 60% with the tariff of about 20% under the 301 framework.” Combined with the 10% additional tariff just announced by Trump, the tariff on Chinese exports to the United States can be as high as 70%. In other words, the 10 additional tariffs announced by Trump are not just 10%. Instead, China is given two options, 60% and 70%. If China cooperates with the US government to ban fentanyl, the United States can reduce China’s tariff to 60%, and if it does not cooperate, it will be 70%. The additional 10% tariff is not just a 10% tariff.
At present, the average most-favored-nation tariff rate in the United States is 2.2%. In fact, 48% of the total amount of goods exported from China to the United States no longer enjoy the “most-favored-nation treatment” tariff rate. This is also a major achievement of Trump’s sanctions against China during his last term as US president. If Trump launches this measure after taking office in January 2025 next year, the future imports of goods from China to the United States will decline year by year and finally drop to 0. This also means that the US and Chinese economies have formed a de facto decoupling. The United States will no longer foolishly transfuse blood to the CCP.
The latest research by UBS Group shows that a 60% tariff will cut more than half of China’s annual economic growth rate. In fact, China’s current economic development is already very slow, even negative, and the official growth rate is not reliable. Once a major blow is encountered in January 2025 next year, and the CCP is helpless, how many people in the already powder keg-ridden Chinese society will detonate the powder keg when they can’t survive, making the CCP authorities unable to defend themselves?
Last week, China’s three major A-share indexes fell sharply for no reason, and the RMB continued to depreciate. The market reaction was closely related to the United States’s cancellation of permanent normal trade relations and Trump’s imposition of high tariffs.
How likely is it to cancel “permanent normal trade relations”? First of all, Trump’s team has a strong will and clear goals. Trump is a man who keeps his word. Secondly, under the anti-communist consensus of the US government and the opposition, and with both the Senate and the House of Representatives controlled by the Republicans, it is no problem to pass half of the votes.
What countermeasures does the CCP have? At present, the CCP has lowered its anti-US tone externally, frequently shown goodwill to the United States, intending to make friends with Europe, using money to win over developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and strengthen relations with Russia. Internally, it held a meeting of export company bosses to emphasize expanding domestic demand.
However, the CCP’s tricks have long been seen through by the United States. No one from the Trump team responded to the CCP’s attitude. The CCP’s continued support for Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war has distanced Europe from the CCP. As for the developing countries that have been won over by money, they will also be cautious under the deterrence of the United States, and even the possibility of changing their faces at any time cannot be ruled out.
In addition, the CCP wants to boost domestic demand, but it does not give money to the people and relax restrictions on enterprises. Instead, local governments try to snatch the few deposits from the people. How can the expected boost to domestic demand be achieved?
Some CCP experts and some overseas propaganda advocate that the United States will hurt itself by doing so. On the one hand, it will be retaliated by the CCP, and on the other hand, it will cause serious impact on the US agriculture, durable goods manufacturing and mining industries, leading to higher inflation in the United States. But Greer believes that “there is no panacea. In some cases, strategic decoupling from China will cause short-term pain.” “However, the cost of doing nothing or underestimating the threat posed by China is much greater.” This also represents Trump’s views. Can the CCP still avoid the storm next year?
It seems that we can only tie up Xi Jinping and send him to the United States to make amends. Okay, thank you everyone.