美国国务院表态，要赶习近平下台。习近平会不会动用核按钮玉石俱焚？
大家好，这名网友问：大包老师，我想问核武器手提箱在谁手上，包子会不会玉石俱焚炸几个省，反正自己这一派也玩不下去。我的回复是：首先呢，我一开始看这个问题，我还觉得有点滑稽搞笑，这个问题太不着调了，逗我呢。后来我想了想这个问题还真的可以，认真的回答一下。这名网友回复，习近平要是有这口气，我到佩服他了。这个是我们看热闹的不嫌事儿大吗。但是这个政治不正确，肯定没有人愿意发生核战争。
我们把这名网友的问题拆解一下，第一就是核按钮到底在谁的手上，包括中国和其他拥核国家。第二就是因为朝鲜是一个拥核国家，美国怎么对付朝鲜，同样的就可能照方抓药对付中国。第三是最近的新闻，美国国务院的表态，已经有颠覆中国国家政权的意思了。就是要求共产党下台，或者习近平下台。就能不能实现是一回事儿，但是美国已经有这个心了，动了杀机。也不要随便怀疑美国的能力，对不对。万一成功了呢，中共怕就怕这个。
第四就是说，中国的火箭军到底是谁掌握。因为中国最可靠的核反击能力就是火箭军。中国轰炸机能够飞到美国本土吗？这个能力很值得怀疑，可能路上就被F35打下来了。当然了，按照小粉红和大外宣本事，中国的战略轰炸机，被他们吹也能吹到美国去。除了核潜艇，中国比较可靠的核反击能力就是火箭军，很简单问题，习近平还能指挥的动火箭军吗？除非火箭军的人都疯了。
我们把这个问题拆解之后，有的我熟悉，有的我不熟悉，不熟悉的我可以查资料。我熟悉的我可以展开讲，对不对。首先这篇文章是杰弗里·莱维斯和布鲁诺·塔尔特里两个写的文章，就是介绍9个拥核国家，核按钮到底在谁的手上。包括美国、俄罗斯、英国、法国、中国、以色列、印度、巴基斯坦和朝鲜等9个国家。你要是不问我这个问题，我还真不知道，中国的核按钮到底在谁的手上。
因为俄罗斯天天装X，经常带着核按钮出来溜达。大家都有印象。最近的一次就是2023年10月18日，普京在北京与习近平会面后，被拍摄到两名随同俄罗斯海军军官提着所谓核按钮手提箱。
中国从来没有人看见习近平拎着核按钮手提箱，或者习近平的手下，出现在公众场合。包括之前的邓小平，江泽民，胡锦涛，这些军委主席。他们也没有拿着出来炫耀过。
我觉得还是表演的成分比较大，因为这是俄罗斯海军，意思就是核潜艇。没有这个箱子难道还不能发射吗？真想发射核导弹，不需要这么箱子。这个就是独裁国家的文化，苏联搞得一套极权主义的审美哲学。这样搞得就好像，大权就在普京一个人手里一样。我觉得除了爽一下，没有什么实际的作用。
习近平还真的按过按钮，不按就不启动吗？按了就启动了吗？这不就是一个模型，就是爽爽，没有什么实际作用。难道习近平按下去，就全球通电了。再按一下，啪，全球电灯都灭了。
这是习近平跑到沙特去参加炼油厂的启动仪式，难道弄个按钮习近平按下去就出油，他松手就不出油。那习近平得一直按着。所以这不就是耍习近平玩呢。习近平按还不是不按，跟实际到底有什么关系呢?
就说普京到处拎着这么一个手提箱，到处去吓唬人。到底俄罗斯得核按钮是谁说了算呢。在俄罗斯，总统是武装部队的总司令，而使用核武器的许可主要由三方授予：总统、国防部长和总参谋长。可以通过两种方式授予此许可：一是通过俄罗斯的Kazbek电子指挥和控制网络，二是通过在冷战时期被称为Perimeter的自动核武器控制系统。也就是说，即便在俄罗斯，也不是普京一个人，说把这箱子打开，我就发射了。实际是总统，国防部长，总参谋长三个人商量决定。就发射核武器，这么大的事情不可能说，打开箱子就发射了。起码要高层三个人同意。
在美国，众所周知的是，总统一旦当选便获得的合法性，使总统直接并立即拥有了在核问题上的权威。然而，尽管总统作为武装部队领导人，有权下令使用核武器，但是莱维斯和塔尔特里坚持认为，按下核按钮需要一系列的命令，而这些命令最终必须得到两个人的同意。也就是说美国总统也不能一拍脑门就说发射，肯定还要军方的同意，无论是国防部长或者参谋长联席会议主席。
英国已将使用核武器的决定交给了首相，但是该决定不太可能在没有事先与女王或国王协商的情况下采取（即使对此没有明文规定）。英国的历史表明，按照英国的传统，使用核武器将是“大臣级别的集体决定”。就是中国的部长级别。
在法国，宪法规定总统是武装部队的领导人，从而授权其使用核武器。尽管法国总统没有义务就此事与其他官员进行协商，但是使用核武器的决定将会通过“安全链”进行检查，还要经过总理、核武器视察员甚至是特殊参谋长组成的“执行链”，而且“每一根链条中都至少有两个人的参与”。也就是说在法国发射核武器起码要8个人同意。
中国的核武器发射，是由政治局常委会决定的
中国的核力量隶属中央军委，受军委主席领导，目前该委员会由7名委员组成，现在中国军委委员已经被抓剩下5个人了，李尚福和苗华都被抓了。其中包括国防部长、总参谋长和来自各军种的代表。鉴于军委主席是该委员会中唯一的文职领导人，这项决定无疑将取决于军委主席。但是两名作者认为，“这一决定必须咨询该国最重要的政治权力机构——中央政治局常委，前提是时间充分且条件允许。”也就是说，按照这两名作者观点，中国的核武器发射，是由政治局常委会决定的。
中国军方的最新表态，是2024年12月11日，发表在《解放军报》上的文章，书记是一班之长，绝不能当作一家之主。这个我分析过，以前习近平肯定是一票顶三票。现在解放军报拿着枪，习近平不能当一家之主。那习近平那一票就是一票，那么剩下6名常委肯定有4个人，不听习近平招呼。习近平是3比4落后。
不然的话，如果剩下的6名常委，有3名听习近平的，那不还是习近平说了算。集体领导没有任何意义。也就是说，习近平现在大概率是无法下达，发射核武器的命令了。
这发射核武器这么大的事情肯定不能由着习近平一个人拿来泄愤那。我们已经介绍了5个国家，事实上没有任何一个国家，能是一个人决定发射核武器的。虽然这种监督机制，有没有作用，单说。但是在制度设计上，任何一个国家都不能任由一个人 ，一拍脑门，就下令发射核武器。
都是这样的，我们看以色列，根据以色列宪法的规定，以色列总理没有管理军队的权力，国防决定主要由负责国家安全的部长级委员会作出，而该委员会由7至10名政府成员组成。在印度，虽然总统是武装部队的总指挥官，但是只有以总理为首的政治委员会才有资格授权使用核武器。因此，这项决定权掌握在总理手中。但是，未经国家安全顾问批准，总理不得下令按下核按钮。此后，这项命令将会被发送给战略部队司令部——该司令部控制着“印度的所有核弹头”，而这在指挥链中的每一级别可能都需要得到两名官员的许可。
自2007年以来，巴基斯坦的核力量一直处于国家指挥部的控制之下，该机构的领导权此前曾交给总统，后于2009年移交总理。该机构采用共识原则，即，使用核武器的任何决定都需要得到一致同意，或者是在未能达成一致的情况下，得到大多数票的支持）。该机构的领导人拥有最终决定权。据信，该国总理和总统都必须授权激活解码核武器所需的密码。
这还真跟俄罗斯类似，有个密码，就跟保险库一样。需要总理和总统两个提供密码才能发射。那要是中国的话，必须7个常委，每人一个密码，我觉得只是一个程序一个形式。
当然，朝鲜就不一样了。尽管关于朝鲜核计划的信息很少，但是报道指出，根据一项可追溯至2013年的法律规定，该国似乎“只能在朝鲜人民军最高司令的命令下使用核武器”，而这项责任由国务委员会主席承担，即金正恩本人。感觉好像只有朝鲜是金正恩一个人说了算。习近平和金三胖相比，还是差点意思。
2019年底，北韩金正恩扬言要在圣诞节期间给美国送上一份「大礼」后，美国除了加强戒备并表示「今晚就可以开战」外，还突然公开了外界很难看到的部分演习画面。画面展示的是驻韩美军特种作战司令部与韩军特战队员于2019年11月在群山基地进行的入境北韩并生擒其领导人的场景。画面中所传递的资讯估计金正恩是最为清楚的，包括所模拟的建筑、房子、周围的环境等，这极有可能是金正恩的某个秘密藏身之所。这就是直接在警告金正恩，如果一意孤行，美军实施「斩首行动」也是选项。
就是一般分析认为，美国忌惮核武器，不会对朝鲜主动发起攻击。但是如果朝鲜主动攻击呢。斩首行动，生擒金正恩就是一个很值得考虑的选项了，就是一个风险和收益匹配的选项了。同样，这个选项也是对习近平有效的。中国如果都想发射核武器了，那么冒险直接生擒习近平或者斩首习近平，就值得了。美国如果发起针对金正恩的生擒行动。肯定同时也会摧毁北韩的所有核武器。
美国对付中国也是照方抓药啊，2022年10月，美国空军大学智库公布了一份报告，震动了中南海。报告表明，美国对15万中共火箭军了若指掌，包括其人事结构、组织结构、指挥系统、后勤基地以及一些负责人的姓名一应俱全。可以说中国有的导弹发射车，导弹发射井都是在美国瞄准之下。如果要开展肯定要配合直接把习近平抓了。
中国也是心知肚明啊，所以在地下挖了好多地下工程。习近平跑到北京市房山区青龙湖去挖一个新的军委大楼，地下掩体，不就是怕钻地炸弹吗？一些专家质疑该地区是否适合建造地下掩体。我们看地图上浅色的就是山沟，深色的就是山。洪水顺着山沟出来，青龙湖镇就是泄洪口。而且2023年8月1日青龙湖就发生过洪水。这习近平选的地方，雄安新区正对着潭柘寺，青龙湖军委大楼还正对着潭柘寺。不能是巧合。道士给他看风水，看来看去，选了一个泄洪口。依山傍水，风水好吗？这些所谓的无神论者，共产党特别的抽象。
而美国国务院通过美国驻华使馆的最新表态，矛头直接中国共产党。直接点名中国共产党。中共就怕这个，美国直接动了杀机，要习近平下台，要共产党下台。赵立坚说中国人民就是中国共产党的铜墙铁壁。中共一贯就是不要脸打游击，拿人民当肉盾。
我说过习近平的主线剧情就是陈毅提拔谷牧，谷牧提拔贾庆林，贾庆林提拔习近平。结果贾庆林被抓了。谷牧本来姓刘，他的儿子就叫做刘念远。谷牧为什么改名叫谷牧呢。就是山谷中的牧童。拿儿童当肉盾。中国人民就是中共的铜墙铁壁吗。
这都是什么不要脸的人提拔的习近平。按照我们之前的分析，火箭军司令王厚斌是习近平的人。火箭军政委徐西盛是胡锦涛的人。火箭军的副司令，那些中将，我们没有分析。他们听谁的也不知道。
反正习近平想扔几个核弹泄愤，难度还是比较大的。再说了习近平贪污了那么多钱，他还等着花钱呢。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
The US State Department has stated that it wants to force Xi Jinping out of office. Will Xi Jinping use the nuclear button to destroy all enemies?
Hello everyone, this netizen asked: Teacher Dabao, I want to ask who has the nuclear weapon briefcase, will Baozi destroy all enemies and bomb several provinces, anyway, my faction can’t play anymore. My reply is: First of all, when I first saw this question, I thought it was a bit funny and ridiculous. This question is too out of tune and makes me laugh. Later, I thought about it and it’s really okay. I will answer it seriously. This netizen replied that if Xi Jinping has this kind of temper, I admire him. This is us who are watching the fun and don’t mind the big things. But this is politically incorrect. No one wants a nuclear war to happen.
Let’s break down this netizen’s question. The first is who has the nuclear button, including China and other nuclear-armed countries. The second is that because North Korea is a nuclear-armed country, the United States may use the same method to deal with North Korea. The third is the recent news. The statement of the US State Department has the intention of subverting the Chinese state power. It is to demand that the Communist Party step down, or Xi Jinping step down. Whether it can be realized or not is one thing, but the United States has already made up its mind and has murderous intentions. Don’t doubt the United States’ ability casually, right? What if it succeeds? The CCP is afraid of this.
Fourth, who controls China’s Rocket Force. Because China’s most reliable nuclear counterattack capability is the Rocket Force. Can Chinese bombers fly to the US mainland? This capability is very doubtful. It may be shot down by F35 on the way. Of course, according to the ability of the little pinks and big foreign propaganda, China’s strategic bombers can be blown to the United States. In addition to nuclear submarines, China’s more reliable nuclear counterattack capability is the Rocket Force. It’s a very simple question. Can Xi Jinping still command the Rocket Force? Unless the people in the Rocket Force are crazy.
After we disassemble this issue, some of them are familiar to me, and some are not. I can look up the information for those I am not familiar with. I can expand on the ones I am familiar with, right? First of all, this article is written by Jeffrey Lewis and Bruno Taltri, which introduces 9 nuclear-armed countries and who holds the nuclear button. Including 9 countries including the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea. If you don’t ask me this question, I really don’t know who holds China’s nuclear button.
Because Russia pretends to be cool every day, and often walks around with nuclear buttons. Everyone has an impression. The most recent one was on October 18, 2023, when Putin met with Xi Jinping in Beijing and was photographed carrying the so-called nuclear button briefcase with two Russian naval officers.
No one in China has ever seen Xi Jinping carrying a nuclear button briefcase, or Xi Jinping’s men, in public. Including the previous Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and these military commission chairmen. They have never shown it out.
I think it’s still a big performance, because this is the Russian Navy, which means nuclear submarines. Can’t it be launched without this box? If you really want to launch a nuclear missile, you don’t need such a box. This is the culture of a dictatorship. The Soviet Union has a totalitarian aesthetic philosophy. It’s like Putin alone has all the power. I think it has no practical effect except for a little fun.
Did Xi Jinping really press the button? Did it not start if he didn’t press it? Did it start if he pressed it? Isn’t this just a model, just for fun, but without any practical effect. Could it be that Xi Jinping pressed it and the whole world would be powered on? Press it again, and the lights all over the world would go out.
This is Xi Jinping going to Saudi Arabia to attend the opening ceremony of the refinery. Could it be that there is a button that Xi Jinping presses to make oil come out, and it won’t come out if he lets go? Then Xi Jinping has to keep pressing it. So this is just playing a trick on Xi Jinping. What does it have to do with reality whether Xi Jinping presses it or not?
Let’s say Putin carries such a briefcase everywhere and scares people everywhere. Who has the final say on Russia’s nuclear button? In Russia, the president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and the permission to use nuclear weapons is mainly granted by three parties: the president, the defense minister, and the chief of the general staff. This permission can be granted in two ways: one is through Russia’s Kazbek electronic command and control network, and the other is through the automatic nuclear weapon control system known as Perimeter during the Cold War. That is to say, even in Russia, it is not Putin alone who says, “Open this box and I will launch it.” In fact, it is the president, the defense minister, and the chief of the general staff who discuss and decide. It is impossible to launch nuclear weapons on such a big matter as opening the box. At least three people at the top must agree.
In the United States, it is well known that the legitimacy obtained by the president once elected gives the president direct and immediate authority on nuclear issues. However, although the president, as the leader of the armed forces, has the power to order the use of nuclear weapons, Lewis and Taltree insist that pressing the nuclear button requires a series of orders, and these orders must ultimately be agreed by two people. In other words, the US president cannot just say launch it on a whim, and must have the consent of the military, whether it is the defense minister or the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The UK has handed the decision to use nuclear weapons to the prime minister, but the decision is unlikely to be taken without prior consultation with the queen or king (even if there is no explicit provision for this). British history shows that according to British tradition, the use of nuclear weapons will be a “collective decision at the ministerial level.” That is, the ministerial level in China.
In France, the constitution states that the president is the leader of the armed forces, thereby authorizing him to use nuclear weapons. Although the French president is not obliged to consult with other officials on the matter, the decision to use nuclear weapons will be checked through the “safety chain” and the “execution chain” composed of the prime minister, nuclear weapons inspectors and even special chiefs of staff, and “each chain involves at least two people.” That is to say, at least eight people must agree to launch nuclear weapons in France.
China’s nuclear weapons launch is decided by the Politburo Standing Committee
China’s nuclear forces are under the Central Military Commission and led by the Chairman of the Military Commission. Currently, the committee consists of 7 members. Now that China’s Military Commission members have been arrested, only 5 people are left, including Li Shangfu and Miao Hua. They include the Minister of Defense, the Chief of the General Staff and representatives from various services. Given that the Chairman of the Military Commission is the only civilian leader on the committee, the decision will undoubtedly depend on the Chairman of the Military Commission. However, the two authors believe that “this decision must be consulted with the country’s most important political power body, the Central Political Bureau Standing Committee, provided that there is sufficient time and conditions permit.” In other words, according to the two authors, China’s nuclear weapons launch is decided by the Politburo Standing Committee.
The latest statement of the Chinese military is an article published in the “People’s Liberation Army Daily” on December 11, 2024. The secretary is the leader of a group and must not be the head of a family. I have analyzed this. In the past, Xi Jinping must have one vote for three votes. Now the People’s Liberation Army Daily holds a gun, and Xi Jinping cannot be the head of a family. Then Xi Jinping’s vote is one vote, so there must be 4 people among the remaining 6 Standing Committee members who do not listen to Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is 3 to 4 behind.
Otherwise, if 3 of the remaining 6 Standing Committee members listen to Xi Jinping, then Xi Jinping still has the final say. Collective leadership has no meaning. In other words, Xi Jinping is now unlikely to issue an order to launch nuclear weapons.
This nuclear weapon launch is such a big thing that Xi Jinping must not be used by Xi Jinping alone to vent his anger. We have introduced 5 countries. In fact, no country can decide to launch nuclear weapons by one person. Although this kind of supervision mechanism, whether it works or not, is a single talk. But in terms of institutional design, no country can allow one person to order the launch of nuclear weapons with a slap on the forehead.
It is the same, let’s look at Israel. According to the Israeli constitution, the Israeli prime minister has no power to manage the army. Defense decisions are mainly made by the ministerial committee responsible for national security, which is composed of 7 to 10 government members. In India, although the president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, only the political committee headed by the prime minister is qualified to authorize the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the decision lies in the hands of the prime minister. However, the prime minister cannot order the nuclear button to be pressed without the approval of the national security adviser. After that, the order will be sent to the Strategic Forces Command, which controls “all India’s nuclear warheads”, and this may require the approval of two officials at each level in the chain of command.
Since 2007, Pakistan’s nuclear forces have been under the control of the National Command, whose leadership was previously given to the president and then to the prime minister in 2009. The agency adopts the consensus principle, that is, any decision to use nuclear weapons requires unanimous consent, or in the absence of consensus, a majority vote). The leader of the agency has the final say. It is believed that both the prime minister and the president of the country must authorize the activation of the code required to decrypt nuclear weapons.
This is really similar to Russia, with a password, just like a safe. The prime minister and the president need to provide the password before the launch. If it is China, there must be 7 standing committee members, each with a password. I think it is just a procedure and a form.
Of course, North Korea is different. Although there is little information about North Korea’s nuclear program, reports indicate that according to a law dating back to 2013, the country seems to “only use nuclear weapons under the order of the Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army”, and this responsibility is borne by the Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, that is, Kim Jong-un himself. It feels like Kim Jong-un is the only one who has the final say in North Korea. Compared with Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un, he is still a little bit behind.
At the end of 2019, after North Korea’s Kim Jong-un threatened to give the United States a “big gift” during Christmas, the United States not only strengthened its vigilance and said that “the war can start tonight”, but also suddenly released some exercise footage that is difficult for the outside world to see. The picture shows the scene of the US Special Operations Command in South Korea and the South Korean special forces entering North Korea and capturing its leaders alive at the Gunsan base in November 2019. Kim Jong-un is probably the clearest about the information conveyed in the picture, including the simulated buildings, houses, surrounding environment, etc. This is most likely a secret hiding place of Kim Jong-un. This is a direct warning to Kim Jong-un that if he insists on his own way, the US military’s “decapitation operation” is also an option.
It is generally believed that the United States is afraid of nuclear weapons and will not take the initiative to attack North Korea. But what if North Korea takes the initiative to attack. Decapitation operation, capturing Kim Jong-un alive is an option worth considering, an option that matches risks and benefits. Similarly, this option is also effective for Xi Jinping. If China wants to launch nuclear weapons, then it is worth taking the risk of directly capturing Xi Jinping alive or beheading Xi Jinping. If the United States launches a capture operation against Kim Jong-un, it will definitely destroy all North Korea’s nuclear weapons at the same time.
The United States is also following the prescription to deal with China. In October 2022, the US Air Force University think tank released a report that shocked Zhongnanhai. The report shows that the United States knows the 150,000 Chinese Communist Rocket Forces very well, including their personnel structure, organizational structure, command system, logistics bases, and the names of some responsible persons. It can be said that some of China’s missile launchers and missile silos are under the US’s target. If it is to be carried out, it must cooperate to directly arrest Xi Jinping.
China also knows it well, so it has dug a lot of underground projects underground. Xi Jinping went to Qinglong Lake in Fangshan District, Beijing to dig a new military commission building and underground bunkers. Isn’t it because he is afraid of drilling bombs? Some experts question whether the area is suitable for building underground bunkers. We look at the map. The light color is the ravine, and the dark color is the mountain. The flood came out of the ravine, and Qinglong Lake Town is the flood discharge outlet. And there was a flood in Qinglong Lake on August 1, 2023. The place chosen by Xi Jinping, Xiongan New Area is opposite to Tanzhe Temple, and the Qinglong Lake Military Commission Building is also opposite to Tanzhe Temple. It can’t be a coincidence. The Taoist priest looked at Feng Shui for him, and after looking around, he chose a flood discharge outlet. Is it good to be surrounded by mountains and rivers? These so-called atheists, the Communist Party is particularly abstract.
The latest statement of the U.S. State Department through the U.S. Embassy in China directly targets the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese Communist Party is afraid of this. The United States has directly launched a murderous intention, asking Xi Jinping to step down and the Communist Party to step down. Zhao Lijian said that the Chinese people are the iron wall of the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese Communist Party has always been shameless in guerrilla warfare and used the people as human shields.
I said that the main plot of Xi Jinping is that Chen Yi promoted Gu Mu, Gu Mu promoted Jia Qinglin, and Jia Qinglin promoted Xi Jinping. As a result, Jia Qinglin was arrested. Gu Mu’s original surname was Liu, and his son was called Liu Nianyuan. Why did Gu Mu change his name to Gu Mu? It was the shepherd boy in the valley. Using children as human shields. Are the Chinese people the iron wall of the Chinese Communist Party?
What kind of shameless people promoted Xi Jinping. According to our previous analysis, Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin is Xi Jinping’s man. Rocket Force Political Commissar Xu Xisheng is Hu Jintao’s man. We have not analyzed the deputy commander of the Rocket Force and those lieutenant generals. We don’t know who they listen to.
Anyway, it is still difficult for Xi Jinping to throw a few nuclear bombs to vent his anger. Besides, Xi Jinping has embezzled so much money, and he is still waiting to spend it.
Okay, thank you everyone.