真正的接班人是宋德福不是习近平。宋德福徒子徒孙江文胜升任农业部副部长。新提拔4个副部长，两江两胡，没有习近平的人上位
大家好，据人力资源社会保障部消息，国务院任免国家工作人员。
任命李高为生态环境部副部长；任命江文胜为农业农村部副部长；任命鄢东为商务部副部长；任命李镇为国务院国有资产监督管理委员会副主任。
免去赵英民的生态环境部副部长职务；免去吴宏耀的农业农村部副部长职务。
这四个人两个江泽民的人两个胡锦涛的人。现在基本就是江胡两大政治集团平分秋色，没有习近平什么事儿。这么换下去，习近平的人就要被换光了呀。这四个人呢，环境部副部长李高和商务部副部长鄢东最明显。两个都退休又回来了。李高是从人大环境与资源保护委员会升任了环境部副部长。李高才54岁就退休到人大了。结果56岁又回来了，这能是习近平的人吗？这很明显是被习近平赶到人大去了。鄢东也差不多，55岁去对外友协当副会长，结果干了3年，58岁回来当商务部副部长了。
就李高和鄢东这样的经历能是习近平的人吗？江文胜是前任农业部长韩长赋的秘书。韩长赋是宋德福提拔的。宋德福得肝癌死了，宋德福不死的话，就是宋德福接班，没有习近平什么事儿。只能说造化弄人。李镇的背景和青海常务副省长张锦刚的有点像。都是鞍钢出来的。张锦刚是邓朴方的背景。准确的说是邓质方。说邓质方和周北方都没有多少人知道，只有岁数大的人才知道。邓质方周北方，陈希同的儿子陈小同都是一起做生意的。首长四方，他们开的公司的名字。就是邓小平时代的习远平。
我不知道李镇是不是和张锦刚一样的背景。我们先看环保部副部长李高。2005年起，36岁的李高作为中方主要谈判代表之一参加联合国气候变化国际谈判。
2008年，39岁的李高参与组建国家发展和改革委员会应对气候变化司。当时的国家应对气候变化领导小组办公室司长、发改委气候办主任苏伟。气候变化小组长是谁，小组长是温家宝。
2009年这一年中国外交工作的关键词也是气候变化，几乎每会必谈、每访必谈。党和国家领导人通过出席经济大国能源和气候论坛领导人会议、G8+5领导人会议、联合国气候变化峰会、二十国集团峰会、亚太经济合作组织领导人峰会、中欧领导人峰会、中国-东盟领导人峰会、达沃斯论坛、中非合作论坛、金砖四国领导人会晤、中美战略与经济对话等重要国际会议和双边往来围绕气候变化问题开展了多方面的重要外交活动，李高牵头为胡锦涛主席、吴邦国委员长、温家宝总理及其他常委、国务院其他领导同志的高层外交提供了大量背景材料和谈话参考。
也就是说李高最早就是给胡锦涛吴邦国温家宝写稿子的工作人员。那么李高为什么就不能是吴邦国的马仔，所以就是习近平的马仔呢。主要是因为李高被赶到人大去了。2023年3月，这不正是习近平三连任国家主席，志得意满的时候，这时候把李高赶到人大二线去了。现在两年了，又回来当副部长，这能是习近平的人吗？
中国国务院总理温家宝当地时间2009年12月16日晚抵达丹麦首都哥本哈根，出席将于18日举行的哥本哈根气候变化会议领导人会议。
温家宝在专机上接受了记者采访。
中方首席谈判代表苏伟在会上三次拍案而起，他对大会主席、丹麦首相拉斯穆森直言:“这一举动将严重影响到哥本哈根大会的成功。”苏伟很明显是温家宝的马仔。苏伟后来担任发改委副秘书长，可能李克强提拔的发改委副主任连维良的大秘。连维良提拔的刘尚进现在是重庆市委书记袁家军的大秘。
苏伟是温家宝的马仔，苏伟当时是发改委气候司司长。李高就在气候司工作。气候司后来从发改委划给了环保部。李高，我们就这样简单看一下，大概率是温家宝的马仔。
2016年3月9日下午，交流中心召开全体职工大会。商务部国际贸易谈判副代表张向晨同志出席会议。会议首先由商务部人事司司长陈洲宣读任免通知，宣布鄢东同志担任交流中心主任（正司级）职务。交流中心就是中国商务部下属的一个事业单位。谈判副代表就是副部长。那么张向晨宣布的鄢东的任命，是不是就代表张向晨和鄢东是同一个派系的呢。
我们暂且就这么猜测。还有一个佐证就是张向晨和鄢东都曾经先后担任世贸司的司长。两个人出身于同一个司，有可能是一家子。
2011年08月，46岁的张向晨任商务部政策研究室主任。当时的中国商务部长是陈德铭（2007年12月29日 – 2013年3月16日），陈德铭按照一般的说法是江派，也未必准确。如果陈德铭是江派的，那么张向晨就应该是江派的。
这个鄢东大概率就是江派。当然这只是简单判断没有深挖， 不一定准确。我们说这个关键的，江文胜，江文胜是韩长赋的秘书。韩长赋担任了长达11年的农业部部长，到底是哪个派系的呢？韩长赋前面的孙政才是曾庆红家的亲戚。由于孙政才身份特殊，是接班人。因此孙政才前面的杜青林，应该也是江泽民的人。安排好了，才让孙政才去的。
大家想，这个韩长赋根本就没有退休。他本人是退休了。他都当11年农业部长了。韩长赋刚刚退休5年，他的秘书江文胜又来当农业部副部长了。等于他这个派系，就没有退休啊。
1987年4月，33岁的韩长赋任共青团青农部副部长。
1990年6月，36岁的韩长赋任共青团青农部部长。
共青团第一书记宋德福（1985年11月 – 1993年5月）
也就是说韩长赋就是宋德福提拔的。
宋德福这个人太特殊了，一般中共的官员除了总书记兼任军委主席。几乎没有地方官员，担任军队职务的。也没有军方人员担任地方职务的。每个省倒是有一个军装常委。然后还有退役军人部是由少量官员跨军队和地方担任职务的。军装常委，其实主要属于军队，和地方关系并不是很密切。
所以宋德福既是部长又是解放军少将。这就比较少见了。军装常委也是一个副部级。宋德福为什么这么特殊，据说宋德福就是接班人。这就是问题的核心，也就是说本来没有习近平什么事儿。宋德福61岁就死了，如果宋德福不死，就是宋德福接班。不会有习近平这一出了。这位就是宋德福，长得挺像张高丽的，我还以为是张高丽呢。
2024年12月25日，墙内搜狐网发表《宋德福同志的英年早逝，至少影响了中国近三十年的政局》一文。此时距宋德福先生病逝已经17年多了，自然令人感觉十分突兀。 不过，有心的读者一眼就能看出搜狐编辑部的“别有用心”。虽然文章内容仅仅就是对宋德福的歌颂和怀念，但关键的关键是文章标题中的后半句“至少影响了中国近三十年的政局”。
显然，文章作者就是在感慨如果不是宋德福的英年早逝，就根本不可能有习近平的接班……。宋德福是江泽民的人，不是胡锦涛的人。宋德福派系对我来说，难度很低。网上流传宋德福是胡锦涛的人，我觉得这种说法很可笑。根本就不懂怎么看派系。这个黄菊才是胡锦涛的人。
因为我在网上还看到一篇文章，感慨，宋德福和黄菊都早死了。黄菊死不死对中国政局影响应该不大。但是这个宋德福本来是应该阻止习近平接班的人，那么影响就是太大了。
宋德福的年龄接胡锦涛年纪的确有点大。如果能活到2012年，宋德福是66岁，干10年76岁退休。江泽民也是76岁从总书记退休的。
1983年12月，宋德福出任共青团中央书记处书记、团中央直属机关党委书记；1985年8月，在胡锦涛调任中共贵州省委书记后，宋德福随即接任团中央书记处第一书记。宋德福担任共青团中央书记处书记不是胡锦涛这个共青团第一书记能提提拔的。能提拔宋德福的只有三个人，邓小平陈云胡耀邦。只能猜是谁提拔的。我猜是胡耀邦。为什么我猜是胡耀邦呢，宋德福之前在总政治部，当时的总政治部主任是余秋里。宋德福的少将估计是余秋里提拔的。余秋里提拔的江泽民。
大家看，1991年宋德福明确为正部长级干部，1993年宋德福担任人事部长。2000年宋德福担任福建省委书记。这不是全在江泽民的任期之内。宋德福的正部级全部在江泽民的任期之内。
据说宋德福是中共党内有共识的接班人。共识的意思就是江泽民和胡锦涛都背书了宋德福当接班人。宋德福本来是要当胡锦涛的接班人，如果宋德福还是胡锦涛的人，江泽民怎么背书啊？从逻辑上说宋德福也是江泽民的人。所以宋德福提拔的韩长赋也是江泽民的人，也就是说农业部杜青林孙政才韩长赋都是江泽民的人。杜青林曾经是吉林副书记，韩长赋曾经是吉林省长。张德江曾经是吉林省委书记。都是江泽民派系的。
所以韩长赋的秘书江文胜应该是江泽民派系的。唐仁健就是习近平派到农业部去抢江泽民地盘的，所以被抓了。2020年胡锦涛不可能去抢江泽民的地盘。
宋德福因为61岁就死了，所以中国没有逃过习近平这一劫。如果宋德福接班了，会不会比习近平还抽象。这也不好说，但是可能性比较小。好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
The real successor is Song Defu, not Xi Jinping. Jiang Wensheng, a disciple of Song Defu, was promoted to vice minister of the Ministry of Agriculture. Four new vice ministers were promoted, two Jiangs and two Hus, but no one from Xi Jinping was promoted
Hello everyone, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the State Council appointed and removed state staff.
Appointed Li Gao as vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment; appointed Jiang Wensheng as vice minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; appointed Yan Dong as vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce; appointed Li Zhen as deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
Removed Zhao Yingmin from the post of vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment; removed Wu Hongyao from the post of vice minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Two of these four people are Jiang Zemin’s people and two are Hu Jintao’s people. Now it is basically that the two major political groups of Jiang and Hu are evenly divided, and Xi Jinping has nothing to do. If this change continues, Xi Jinping’s people will be replaced. Among these four people, Li Gao, vice minister of the Ministry of Environment, and Yan Dong, vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, are the most obvious. Both retired and came back. Li Gao was promoted from the NPC Environmental and Resources Protection Committee to vice minister of the Ministry of Environment. Li Gao retired to the National People’s Congress at the age of 54. But he returned at the age of 56. Can he be Xi Jinping’s man? It is obvious that he was driven to the National People’s Congress by Xi Jinping. Yan Dong is similar. He went to China Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries as vice president at the age of 55. He worked for 3 years and returned to the Ministry of Commerce as vice minister at the age of 58.
Can Li Gao and Yan Dong be Xi Jinping’s men with such experiences? Jiang Wensheng was the secretary of Han Changfu, the former Minister of Agriculture. Han Changfu was promoted by Song Defu. Song Defu died of liver cancer. If Song Defu had not died, Song Defu would have taken over and Xi Jinping would have had nothing to do with it. It can only be said that fate plays tricks on people. Li Zhen’s background is a bit similar to that of Zhang Jingang, the executive vice governor of Qinghai. They both came from Anshan Iron and Steel. Zhang Jingang is the background of Deng Pufang. To be precise, it is Deng Zhifang. Not many people know about Deng Zhifang and Zhou Beifang, only older people know about them. Deng Zhifang, Zhou Beifang, and Chen Xitong’s son Chen Xiaotong all did business together. Shouchang Sifang is the name of their company. It is Xi Yuanping in the Deng Xiaoping era.
I don’t know if Li Zhen has the same background as Zhang Jingang. Let’s first look at Li Gao, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Environmental Protection. Since 2005, 36-year-old Li Gao has participated in the United Nations climate change international negotiations as one of the main negotiators of China.
In 2008, 39-year-old Li Gao participated in the establishment of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Climate Change Department. At that time, Su Wei was the director of the Office of the National Leading Group for Climate Change and the director of the Climate Office of the Development and Reform Commission. Who is the head of the climate change team? The head of the team is Wen Jiabao.
The keyword of China’s diplomatic work in 2009 is also climate change, which must be discussed in almost every meeting and every visit. The leaders of the Party and the country have carried out many important diplomatic activities around the issue of climate change by attending important international conferences and bilateral exchanges such as the Leaders’ Meeting of the Energy and Climate Forum of Major Economies, the G8+5 Leaders’ Meeting, the United Nations Climate Change Summit, the G20 Summit, the APEC Leaders’ Summit, the China-EU Leaders’ Summit, the China-ASEAN Leaders’ Summit, the Davos Forum, the China-Africa Cooperation Forum, the BRICS Leaders’ Meeting, and the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Li Gao took the lead in providing a large amount of background materials and conversation references for the high-level diplomacy of President Hu Jintao, Chairman Wu Bangguo, Premier Wen Jiabao and other Standing Committee members and other leading comrades of the State Council.
In other words, Li Gao was originally a staff member who wrote manuscripts for Hu Jintao, Wu Bangguo and Wen Jiabao. So why can’t Li Gao be Wu Bangguo’s lackey, so he is Xi Jinping’s lackey. It’s mainly because Li Gao was driven to the National People’s Congress. In March 2023, isn’t this the time when Xi Jinping was re-elected as the President of the country for the third time and was full of ambition, and at this time he drove Li Gao to the second line of the National People’s Congress. Now it’s been two years, and he’s back as a vice minister again. Can this be Xi Jinping’s man?
On the evening of December 16, 2009, local time, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao arrived in Copenhagen, the capital of Denmark, to attend the Leaders’ Meeting of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference to be held on the 18th.
Wen Jiabao was interviewed by reporters on the special plane.
China’s chief negotiator Su Wei slammed the table three times at the meeting. He bluntly told the chairman of the conference, Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen: “This move will seriously affect the success of the Copenhagen Conference.” Su Wei is obviously Wen Jiabao’s henchman. Su Wei later served as Deputy Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission. He may be the chief secretary of Lian Weiliang, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission promoted by Li Keqiang. Liu Shangjin, who was promoted by Lian Weiliang, is now the chief secretary of Yuan Jiajun, the secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee.
Su Wei is Wen Jiabao’s henchman. Su Wei was the director of the Climate Department of the National Development and Reform Commission at the time. Li Gao worked in the Climate Department. The Climate Department was later transferred from the National Development and Reform Commission to the Ministry of Environmental Protection. Li Gao, let’s just take a quick look at it. It is likely that he is Wen Jiabao’s henchman.
On the afternoon of March 9, 2016, the Exchange Center held a general staff meeting. Comrade Zhang Xiangchen, Deputy Representative of International Trade Negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, attended the meeting. At the beginning of the meeting, Chen Zhou, Director of the Personnel Department of the Ministry of Commerce, read out the appointment and removal notice, announcing that Comrade Yan Dong would serve as the Director of the Exchange Center (at the director level). The Exchange Center is a public institution under the Ministry of Commerce of China. The Deputy Representative of Negotiations is the Deputy Minister. So does the appointment of Yan Dong announced by Zhang Xiangchen mean that Zhang Xiangchen and Yan Dong are from the same faction?
Let’s just guess for now. Another piece of evidence is that Zhang Xiangchen and Yan Dong have both served as Directors of the World Trade Department. The two people came from the same department and may be from the same family.
In August 2011, 46-year-old Zhang Xiangchen served as Director of the Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Commerce. The then Chinese Minister of Commerce was Chen Deming (December 29, 2007 – March 16, 2013). According to the general saying, Chen Deming is from the Jiang faction, which may not be accurate. If Chen Deming is from the Jiang faction, then Zhang Xiangchen should be from the Jiang faction.
This Yan Dong is most likely from the Jiang faction. Of course, this is just a simple judgment without in-depth investigation, and it may not be accurate. Let’s talk about the key, Jiang Wensheng, Jiang Wensheng is Han Changfu’s secretary. Han Changfu served as the Minister of Agriculture for 11 years. Which faction is he from? Sun Zhengcai, who was before Han Changfu, is a relative of Zeng Qinghong’s family. Because of Sun Zhengcai’s special status, he is the successor. Therefore, Du Qinglin, who was before Sun Zhengcai, should also be Jiang Zemin’s man. Only after the arrangement was made, Sun Zhengcai was allowed to go.
Everyone thinks that Han Changfu has not retired at all. He himself has retired. He has been the Minister of Agriculture for 11 years. Han Changfu has just retired for 5 years, and his secretary Jiang Wensheng has become the Deputy Minister of Agriculture. This means that his faction has not retired.
In April 1987, 33-year-old Han Changfu was appointed as the Deputy Minister of the Youth and Agriculture Department of the Communist Youth League.
In June 1990, 36-year-old Han Changfu was appointed as the Minister of the Youth and Agriculture Department of the Communist Youth League.
Song Defu, the First Secretary of the Communist Youth League (November 1985 – May 1993)
That is to say, Han Changfu was promoted by Song Defu.
Song Defu is a very special person. In general, except for the general secretary, there are almost no local officials who hold military positions. There are no military personnel who hold local positions. Each province does have a uniformed standing committee member. Then there is the Veterans Affairs Department, which is composed of a small number of officials who hold positions in both the military and local areas. The uniformed standing committee members actually mainly belong to the military and are not very closely related to the local areas.
So Song Defu is both a minister and a major general of the People’s Liberation Army. This is quite rare. The uniformed standing committee member is also a vice-ministerial level. Why is Song Defu so special? It is said that Song Defu is the successor. This is the core of the problem. In other words, there was nothing to do with Xi Jinping. Song Defu died at the age of 61. If Song Defu had not died, Song Defu would have taken over. There would be no Xi Jinping. This is Song Defu, who looks a lot like Zhang Gaoli. I thought it was Zhang Gaoli.
On December 25, 2024, Sohu.com published an article titled “Comrade Song Defu’s untimely death has at least affected China’s political situation for nearly 30 years.” It has been more than 17 years since Mr. Song Defu passed away, which naturally makes people feel very abrupt. However, attentive readers can see the “ulterior motives” of the Sohu editorial department at a glance. Although the content of the article is just a praise and remembrance of Song Defu, the key is the second half of the title of the article “at least affected China’s political situation for nearly 30 years.”
Obviously, the author of the article is lamenting that if it weren’t for Song Defu’s untimely death, there would be no successor to Xi Jinping… Song Defu is Jiang Zemin’s man, not Hu Jintao’s man. Song Defu’s faction is very easy for me. It is said on the Internet that Song Defu is Hu Jintao’s man, and I think this statement is ridiculous. I don’t know how to look at factions at all. This Huang Ju is Hu Jintao’s man.
Because I also saw an article on the Internet, lamenting that Song Defu and Huang Ju both died early. Whether Huang Ju died or not should have little impact on China’s political situation. But Song Defu was supposed to prevent Xi Jinping from taking over, so the impact is too great.
Song Defu is indeed a bit old to succeed Hu Jintao. If he could live to 2012, Song Defu would be 66 years old, and he would retire at the age of 76 after 10 years of work. Jiang Zemin also retired as general secretary at the age of 76.
In December 1983, Song Defu became the secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League and the secretary of the Party Committee of the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League; in August 1985, after Hu Jintao was transferred to the position of secretary of the Guizhou Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China, Song Defu immediately took over as the first secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League. Song Defu’s position as secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League was not something that Hu Jintao, the first secretary of the Communist Youth League, could promote. There were only three people who could promote Song Defu, Deng Xiaoping, Chen Yun, and Hu Yaobang. We can only guess who promoted him. I guess it was Hu Yaobang. Why do I guess it was Hu Yaobang? Song Defu was in the General Political Department before, and the director of the General Political Department at that time was Yu Qiuli. Song Defu’s rank of major general was probably promoted by Yu Qiuli. Yu Qiuli promoted Jiang Zemin.
You see, Song Defu was clearly a ministerial-level cadre in 1991, and Song Defu served as the Minister of Personnel in 1993. In 2000, Song Defu served as the Secretary of the Fujian Provincial Party Committee. This was not all during Jiang Zemin’s term. Song Defu’s ministerial-level position was all during Jiang Zemin’s term.
It is said that Song Defu is the successor with consensus within the Communist Party of China. Consensus means that Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao both endorsed Song Defu as the successor. Song Defu was originally going to be Hu Jintao’s successor. If Song Defu was still Hu Jintao’s man, how could Jiang Zemin endorse him? Logically speaking, Song Defu is also Jiang Zemin’s man. So Han Changfu, who was promoted by Song Defu, is also Jiang Zemin’s man, which means that Du Qinglin, Sun Zhengcai and Han Changfu of the Ministry of Agriculture are all Jiang Zemin’s men. Du Qinglin was once the deputy secretary of Jilin, and Han Changfu was once the governor of Jilin Province. Zhang Dejiang was once the secretary of the Jilin Provincial Party Committee. They are all from Jiang Zemin’s faction.
So Han Changfu’s secretary Jiang Wensheng should be from Jiang Zemin’s faction. Tang Renjian was sent by Xi Jinping to the Ministry of Agriculture to grab Jiang Zemin’s territory, so he was arrested. It is impossible for Hu Jintao to grab Jiang Zemin’s territory in 2020.
Song Defu died at the age of 61, so China did not escape Xi Jinping’s disaster. If Song Defu takes over, will he be more abstract than Xi Jinping? It’s hard to say, but the possibility is relatively small. OK, thank you everyone.