日本记者证实中国去年GDP实际上为下降的

中国国家统计局公布去年实际国内生产总值(GDP),按人民币计算,中国的经济增长了5.2%,超额达到了当局5%的目标,但《日经中文网》的报道指出,如果是按美元计算,中国的GDP反而较前一年少了0.5%,29年来首次出现负增长;《产经新闻》特约记者田村秀男也透过分析其他相关数据,力证中国去年的GDP是下降得。

田村秀男利用对GDP影响较大的房地产投资、净出口、居民消费等3项数据,对中国GDP进行粗略估算。
他撰文指出,房地产投资占中国GDP逾10%,如果加上电器等消费约占GDP的3成,去年房地产投资跌16.7%,估计推低GDP近5%;而总出口额减去进口额得出的净出口额,过去都占中国GDP约3%,而去年1至11月的净出口,较前年同期下降32.3%,对GDP影响约1%,因此,光是房地产投资和净出口额两项就已经使GDP减少约6%。

另外,我补充一个数据是
2022年,中国国家铁路完成货物发送量39亿吨,同比增长4.7%。
2023年,中国国家铁路完成货物发送量39.1亿吨,再创历史新高
2023年,铁路货物发送量比2022年多了0.1亿吨,
没有说同比增长,而是说再创历史新高

英文翻译

Japanese reporter confirmed that China’s GDP actually declined last year
The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced last year’s actual gross domestic product (GDP). In RMB terms, China’s economy grew by 5.2%, exceeding the authorities’ target of 5%. However, a report from Nikkei Chinese Network pointed out that if it were calculated in RMB terms, In dollar terms, China’s GDP was 0.5% less than the previous year, showing negative growth for the first time in 29 years. “Sankei Shimbun” special reporter Tamura Hideo also analyzed other relevant data to prove that China’s GDP dropped last year.

Hideo Tamura made a rough estimate of China’s GDP using three data items, including real estate investment, net exports, and household consumption, which have a greater impact on GDP.
He wrote that real estate investment accounts for more than 10% of China’s GDP. If consumption of electrical appliances and other products is included, which accounts for about 30% of GDP, real estate investment fell by 16.7% last year, which is estimated to have pushed down GDP by nearly 5%. Total exports minus imports are In the past, net exports accounted for about 3% of China’s GDP. However, net exports from January to November last year fell by 32.3% compared with the same period last year, affecting about 1% of GDP. Therefore, both real estate investment and net exports alone The project alone has reduced GDP by about 6%.

In addition, I would like to add another piece of data:
In 2022, China’s national railways will complete cargo shipments of 3.9 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
In 2023, China’s national railways completed cargo shipments of 3.91 billion tons, setting another record high
In 2023, the volume of railway cargo sent will be 10 million tons more than in 2022.
It didn’t say year-on-year growth, but said it would hit a new record high.

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